College football, 2026 season, Week 10
Nerd shit for
ball knowers.
Stats and data viz for all 138 FBS teams and 3,000+ players. Find out who's good, who's lucky and who's paying for it. Then use box scores, advanced stats and anything else we could get our hands on to build charts that support your takes.
Week 10
Game of the week
The game to watch: the best matchup on the board, by how good both teams are and how close we think it'll be.
60% chance to win
- Notre Dame should throw it. Notre Dame is top-10 (4th) in EPA per pass, and Miami is middle of the pack (78th) in EPA per pass allowed.
Miami at Notre Dame
Picks
Picks and projected scores for every FBS game this week.
Nerd shit
This week's games in charts, built on every game so far this season. They look a helluva lot better on their own pages, where you can tweak them and share them: copy the image, embed it or post it to X.
Games through Oct. 31. SP+ through Oct. 31's games, PRIME updated Oct. 31, AP poll Nov. 1.
Where the AP poll and SP+ rankings split.
No. 4 Notre Dame (7–1, Game of the week): 3rd nationally in SP+ overall, 4th in blue-chip ratio.
Open the chart →James Madison (7–2, upset last week): 33rd nationally in 2nd-half scoring margin, 4th in 1st-half scoring margin.
Open the chart →Malachi Toney, No. 1 Miami (Game of the week): 4th in explosive catches and 3rd in receiving yards among 715 receivers and tight ends.
Open the chart →UCLA has played 3 games without Iamaleava and won all 3 by 18 (it won by 21 ppg with him). We still believe in the defense.
Open the chart →No. 1 Miami (8–0, Game of the week): 1st nationally in stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), 16th in power success (short yardage).
Open the chart →Nolan James Jr., No. 4 Notre Dame (Game of the week): 9th in rushing success rate and 11th in Big Uglies rating for his line among 387 running backs.
Open the chart →No. 8 Kentucky (7–1, ranked matchup this week): 136th nationally in 3rd downs allowed, 129th in 3rd down conversion.
Open the chart →Darian Mensah, No. 1 Miami (Game of the week): 3rd in yards per attempt and 1st in completion % among 181 quarterbacks.
Open the chart →Rankings
Our Top 25 after last week, and where we split from the AP and Coaches polls.
Miami is our No. 1: 5th in SP+, 6th in strength of record, and No. 1 in the AP poll. We like Oregon more than the voters do: our No. 22, unranked in the AP poll. It's 5–3, but 12th in SP+. We like BYU less: AP No. 7, our No. 16. The 7–1 record is better than the play behind it, which ranks 14th in SP+. South Carolina makes our 25 at 5–3 because it still rates 23rd in SP+.
- 1Miami8–0
- 2Notre Dame7–1
- 3Utah8–0
- 4LSU6–2
- 5UCLA8–0
- 6Georgia7–1
- 7Indiana8–1
- 8Alabama6–2
- 9Wake Forest7–1
- 10Texas6–2
- 11Ole Miss6–2
- 12Kentucky7–1
- 13Texas Tech7–1
- 14USC7–2
- 15Ohio State6–2
- 16BYU7–1
- 17Tennessee6–2
- 18Arizona6–2
- 19Missouri6–2
- 20Houston6–2
- 21Iowa6–2
- 22Oregon5–3
- 23Boise State7–1
- 24Northwestern6–2
- 25South Carolina5–3
Higher than the polls: LSU, USC, Wake Forest, Arizona, Oregon. Lower than the polls: SMU, Ohio State, BYU, Northwestern, Kentucky.
LSU ▲41513
SMU ▼NRNR16
Ohio State ▼15112
BYU ▼1679
USC ▲141825
Northwestern ▼24NR18
Wake Forest ▲91415
Arizona ▲182421
Kentucky ▼1288
Oregon ▲22NRNRPlayoff field
The 12-team field if the season ended today.
Miami, Notre Dame, Utah and LSU get the byes. Boise State (7–1) takes the spot for the highest-ranked team outside the Power 4, as the 12 seed. The last team in is Ole Miss; Kentucky is the first one out.
First-round byes1Miami 8–0, auto bid2Notre Dame 7–13Utah 8–0, auto bid4LSU 6–2 First round, at the higher seed8Alabama 6–2vs.9Wake Forest 7–15UCLA 8–0, auto bidvs.12Boise State 7–1, auto bid6Georgia 7–1, auto bidvs.11Ole Miss 6–27Indiana 8–1vs.10Texas 6–2 Bubble: last four in are Alabama, Wake Forest, Texas, Ole Miss. First four out: Kentucky, Texas Tech, USC, Ohio State. This week's field, with the bracket and every seedWeek 9
Retro
Every pick, graded.
The week in charts
Last week's story, told with that week's games alone. Screenshot to end (or start) an argument in the group chat.
Troy beat James Madison 24–21: a 32% success rate to James Madison's 35%, and 13% of plays explosive to 10%.
Open the game →Week 9's breakout offenses: Oregon put up 9.5 yards a play, 3.3 over its average, and Utah State and Old Dominion weren't far behind. Georgia Tech fell 3.0 under its average.
Open the chart →Caden Veltkamp (Florida Atlantic) led Week 9 with 456 passing yards. Next was Nick Minicucci with 420.
Open the chart →Texas Tech beat Arizona 34–26: a 48% success rate to Arizona's 33%, and 15% of plays explosive to 6%.
Open the game →Week 9's best days up front: Louisville's offensive line got 4.37 line yards per carry, 1.64 over its average. Western Kentucky and Old Dominion were next.
Open the chart →Utah had the best EPA per play in Week 9: 0.54, ahead of Liberty (0.53).
Open the chart →Aiden Flora (Iowa State) led Week 9 with 6 explosive runs (12+ yards). Next was Seth Cromwell with 5.
Open the chart →Georgia beat Florida 27–8: a 51% success rate to Florida's 30%, and 11% of plays explosive to 8%.
Open the game →4 teams played Week 9 without their starting quarterback. Troy played without Will Crowder and put up 5.3 yards a play, 0.7 under its average before that.
Open the chart →Easton Messer (Florida Atlantic) led Week 9 with 193 receiving yards. Next was Sean Wilson with 183.
Open the chart →Aiden Flora (Iowa State) led everyone in Week 9 with 221 rushing yards.
Open the chart →Boise State beat Texas State 46–45: a 46% success rate to Texas State's 45%, and 11% of plays explosive to 11%.
Open the game →Week 9's best defensive games against their own season: Sacramento State held its opponent to a 22.1% success rate, 16.3 points better than usual. NC State and South Florida were next.
Open the chart →Week 9's breakout passing days: Nick Minicucci (Delaware) threw for 420, 209 over his average. Dylan Raiola and Jaylen Raynor were next.
Open the chart →2026
Superlatives
The best, worst, luckiest and most overrated so far. Tap a tile to learn more.
Games through Oct. 31. SP+ through Oct. 31's games, PRIME updated Oct. 31, AP poll Nov. 1.
Hot and cold
Who's streaking and who's shitting the bed.
| Game | Result | Vs. SP+ | EPA | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10at NC State | W 38–14 | +13.4 | +0.24 | +46 |
| Oct 17at California | W 41–7 | +16.1 | +1.16 | +51 |
| Oct 31vs. Virginia | W 51–7 | +35.1 | +0.64 | +105 |
| Game | Result | Vs. SP+ | EPA | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8vs. Sam Houston | W 35–3 | +4 | +0.67 | +21 |
| Oct 22at Kennesaw State | W 34–6 | +9.2 | +0.47 | +24 |
| Oct 31vs. Florida International | W 49–10 | +21.1 | +0.88 | +64 |
| Game | Result | Vs. SP+ | EPA | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10at Florida | W 38–19 | +21.1 | +0.29 | +50 |
| Oct 24vs. Tennessee | W 27–24 | +7.4 | +0.10 | +3 |
| Oct 31at Oklahoma | W 42–25 | +18.8 | +0.29 | +43 |
| Game | Result | Vs. SP+ | EPA | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17vs. Wake Forest | L 7–41 | −16.1 | −1.16 | −51 |
| Oct 24at SMU | L 20–59 | −14.9 | −0.35 | −60 |
| Oct 31at NC State | L 10–31 | −11.2 | −0.27 | −27 |
| Game | Result | Vs. SP+ | EPA | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10vs. Ole Miss | L 17–52 | −21.4 | −0.64 | −92 |
| Oct 17vs. Arkansas | L 21–31 | −11.5 | −0.17 | −33 |
| Oct 24at Kentucky | L 17–34 | −2.5 | −0.25 | −35 |
| Game | Result | Vs. SP+ | EPA | Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17at SMU | L 13–23 | +0.1 | −0.03 | −10 |
| Oct 23vs. Duke | L 16–19 | −4.5 | −0.14 | −1 |
| Oct 31at Wake Forest | L 7–51 | −35.1 | −0.64 | −105 |
Make your own case
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Picks and retrosin your inboxevery week.
The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateCollege football, 2026 season
Nerd shit for
ball knowers.
Stats and data viz for all 138 FBS teams and 3,000+ players. Find out who's good, who's lucky and who's paying for it. Then use box scores, advanced stats and anything else we could get our hands on to build charts that support your takes.
Week 9
Game of the week
Picks
Picks and projected scores for every FBS game this week.
Nerd shit
This week's games in charts, built on every game so far this season. They look a helluva lot better on their own pages, where you can tweak them and share them: copy the image, embed it or post it to X.
Where the AP poll and SP+ rankings split.
Rankings
Our Top 25 after last week, and where we split from the AP and Coaches polls.
Playoff field
The 12-team field if the season ended today.
Week 8
Retro
Every pick, graded.
The week in charts
Last week's story, told with that week's games alone. Screenshot to end (or start) an argument in the group chat.
2026
Superlatives
The best, worst, luckiest and most overrated so far. Tap a tile to learn more.
Hot and cold
Who's streaking and who's shitting the bed.
Make your own case
Everything you build can be saved as an image for the group chat.