This week's picks

App State vs. Georgia Southern Prediction, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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App State at Georgia Southern

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM ET, Allen E. Paulson Stadium.

The numbers say: Georgia Southern, 63% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM ET
TVESPN+
WhereAllen E. Paulson Stadium
Weather68°, cloudy, wind 10 mph
LineGeorgia Southern −5.5, total 57.5
Line movementOpened Georgia Southern −3.5; moved 2 points toward Georgia Southern. Total opened 54.5, up 3.
SeriesApp State leads 14–10
Last meetingGeorgia Southern 29–10 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Georgia Southern by 2.657%55
PRIMEGeorgia Southern by 2.858%
EloGeorgia Southern66%
The lineGeorgia Southern −5.5, opened −3.557.5, opened 54.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, App State or Georgia Southern?

The numbers say: Georgia Southern. 61% chance to win

Which matchups decide App State vs. Georgia Southern?

All three ratings favor Georgia Southern, by 2.6 to 2.8 points. Georgia Southern's best matchup is its pass protection, 11th in sacks allowed per dropback, against App State's pass rush at 120th. App State's way back in is its ball security, 27th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Georgia Southern's takeaway defense at 128th.

App State with the ball

Georgia Southern with the ball

Who's out for App State and Georgia Southern?

App State

Georgia Southern

How App State and Georgia Southern compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; App State and Georgia Southern are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How App State's and Georgia Southern's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate App State and Georgia Southern?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Georgia Southern 0.1 points better (94th to 95th). PRIME also has Georgia Southern ahead, by 0.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Georgia Southern ahead (92nd to 106th).

App StateGeorgia Southern
SP+ overall-4.9 (95th)-4.8 (94th)
SP+ offense24.2 (89th)24.4 (86th)
SP+ defense29.5 (96th)28.8 (91st)
SP+ special teams0.4 (11th)-0.4 (113th)
PRIME net-2.6 (83rd)-2.3 (79th)
PRIME offense-1.99 (81st)1.38 (50th)
PRIME defense-1.41 (82nd)-1.95 (87th)
PRIME SOS-10.0 (133rd)-4.2 (85th)
PRIME SOR-0.1 (72nd)-1.2 (101st)
Elo1310 (106th)1374 (92nd)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

App State's offense ranks 85th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Georgia Southern defense it faces ranks 68th in EPA per play allowed. Georgia Southern's offense ranks 47th against App State's 94th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Georgia Southern's offense against App State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Georgia Southern's efficiency: 50th in adjusted success rate, against App State's 118th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and App State's defense falls from 63rd to 94th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.

App StateGeorgia Southern
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.07 (85th)+0.13 (47th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.21 (56th)+0.24 (31st)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.01 (123rd)+0.06 (71st)
Success rate (adjusted)39.2% (99th)43.3% (50th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)45.0% (101st)47.0% (61st)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)30.5% (66th)32.3% (30th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.94 (59th)0.93 (92nd)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.77 (123rd)2.93 (83rd)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)0.94 (125th)1.19 (48th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.14 (94th)+0.11 (68th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.19 (72nd)+0.25 (103rd)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.11 (108th)+0.03 (43rd)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)46.1% (118th)42.0% (74th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.92 (45th)0.88 (3rd)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.95 (66th)3.00 (79th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)0.97 (21st)1.00 (35th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, App State or Georgia Southern?

App State is better throwing (39th in EPA per pass) than running (122nd). Georgia Southern's pass defense ranks 97th, so that's an edge. Georgia Southern is better throwing (49th in EPA per pass) than running (96th). App State's pass defense ranks 59th.

App StateGeorgia Southern
EPA per play+0.12 (76th)+0.15 (63rd)
EPA per pass+0.32 (39th)+0.28 (49th)
EPA per rush−0.03 (122nd)+0.04 (96th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.29 (109th)+0.43 (81st)
EPA per play allowed+0.08 (63rd)+0.07 (56th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.14 (59th)+0.26 (97th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.09 (83rd)−0.03 (33rd)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.29 (39th)+0.12 (8th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, App State or Georgia Southern?

App State outscores FBS opponents by 7.0 a game, and Georgia Southern by 1.4. App State's offense ranks 59th in scoring, and the Georgia Southern defense it faces ranks 58th in points allowed. Georgia Southern's offense ranks 96th against App State's 61st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.

App StateGeorgia Southern
Points scored30.1 (59th)24.4 (96th)
Points allowed23.1 (61st)23.0 (58th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

App State's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 22nd in explosive play rate, and Georgia Southern's defense ranks 68th in explosive plays allowed. Georgia Southern's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 52nd in success rate, and App State's defense ranks 78th in success rate allowed.

App StateGeorgia Southern
Pass yards / game278.0 (25th)283.0 (21st)
Rush yards / game170.5 (62nd)130.3 (112th)
Yards per play5.99 (80th)6.28 (60th)
Yards per carry4.99 (80th)4.98 (81st)
Yards per attempt7.13 (89th)7.31 (83rd)
Completion %58.1% (94th)69.0% (36th)
Success rate43.0% (79th)45.3% (52nd)
Explosive play rate14.9% (22nd)12.6% (60th)
3rd down conversion33.0% (117th)41.3% (64th)
Sack rate (taken)4.1% (33rd)2.5% (11th)
INT rate (thrown)1.3% (27th)1.1% (21st)
SUPLEX58.3% (49th)58.5% (46th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

App State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 12th in yards per carry allowed, and Georgia Southern's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (81st). That's a mismatch. Georgia Southern's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 34th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and App State's offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (117th). That's a mismatch.

App StateGeorgia Southern
Pass yards allowed / game228.8 (100th)203.3 (52nd)
Rush yards allowed / game124.2 (31st)135.3 (49th)
Yards per play allowed5.72 (68th)5.41 (47th)
Yards per carry allowed3.86 (12th)4.38 (39th)
Yards per attempt allowed8.08 (94th)6.98 (64th)
Success rate allowed42.7% (78th)37.9% (41st)
Explosive plays allowed10.3% (50th)11.0% (68th)
3rd downs allowed35.3% (44th)33.7% (34th)
Sack rate (generated)4.0% (120th)8.1% (25th)
INT rate (generated)5.3% (7th)1.0% (128th)
SUPLEX allowed52.3% (56th)50.2% (42nd)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Georgia Southern has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Georgia Southern ranks 35th and App State 131st.

App StateGeorgia Southern
Big Uglies: offensive line45.2 (107th)52.0 (53rd)
Big Uglies: defensive front46.1 (92nd)54.9 (29th)
Line yards per carry2.58 (132nd)3.10 (60th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.73 (43rd)2.85 (59th)
Second-level yards per carry0.99 (97th)1.03 (89th)
Open-field yards per carry0.65 (123rd)1.15 (74th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)22.2% (124th)16.5% (51st)
Stuff rate (defense)20.2% (48th)21.8% (31st)
Power success (short yardage)71.4% (74th)69.6% (88th)
Power success allowed84.4% (131st)65.4% (35th)
Front-seven havoc allowed9.4% (79th)9.3% (77th)
Front-seven havoc9.7% (65th)12.5% (15th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

App State is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Georgia Southern is +0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for App State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Georgia Southern's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.1 a game).

App StateGeorgia Southern
Interceptions thrown / game0.43 (25th)0.43 (25th)
Fumbles lost / game0.57 (74th)0.57 (74th)
Giveaways / game1.00 (36th)1.00 (36th)
Interceptions / game1.43 (6th)0.29 (119th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.29 (94th)0.86 (12th)
Takeaways / game1.71 (16th)1.14 (67th)
Turnover margin / game+0.7 (17th)+0.1 (61st)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Georgia Southern has the more talented roster (78th in the 247Sports talent composite; App State is 85th). But App State plays further above its talent: −2.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Georgia Southern's −3.0.

App StateGeorgia Southern
Talent composite621.6 (85th)634.2 (78th)
Blue-chip ratio7.4% (84th)11.1% (64th)
Players on roster109 (82nd)122 (12th)
Rated by 247Sports68 (103rd)81 (56th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players5 (81st)9 (60th)
3-star players60 (74th)68 (37th)
Below 3-star3 (53rd)4 (38th)
2026 transfers in38 (17th)22 (63rd)
Transfer share55.9% (16th)27.2% (78th)
SP+ vs. talent-2.3 (79th)-3.0 (87th)
Returning production37.9% (73rd)5.8% (125th)
Returning passing production-30.9% (131st)-4.0% (128th)
Returning rushing production85.0% (33rd)6.6% (106th)
Returning receiving production57.5% (32nd)9.3% (125th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)59 (59th)89 (89th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes87.2 (81st)90.2 (82nd)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

App State is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.4). Georgia Southern is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−0.5).

App StateGeorgia Southern
RECEIPTS (total)+1.5 (30th)-0.5 (89th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+1.4 (20th)+0.4 (72nd)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.2 (85th)-0.3 (89th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.5 (89th)-0.5 (89th)
Luck RECEIPTS+0.8 (23rd)-0.1 (78th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

App State at Georgia Southern: questions people ask

App State vs. Georgia Southern prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Georgia Southern, 61% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Georgia Southern's best matchup is its pass protection, 11th in sacks allowed per dropback, against App State's pass rush at 120th.

Where can I watch App State vs. Georgia Southern, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM ET at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. It's on ESPN+.

What's the projected score of App State vs. Georgia Southern?

SP+ projects Georgia Southern 29–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for App State at Georgia Southern?

DraftKings has Georgia Southern −5.5, total 57.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the App State vs. Georgia Southern series history?

App State leads 14–10. Last meeting: Georgia Southern won 29–10 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in App State vs. Georgia Southern?

App State: Malachi Singleton (1,773 passing yards), Jaquari Lewis (420 rushing yards) and Sam Pickett III (476 receiving yards). Georgia Southern: Max Johnson (1,649 passing yards), David Mbadinga (233 rushing yards) and Josh Dallas (348 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in App State at Georgia Southern?

App State's is Malachi Singleton (1,773 passing yards this season); Georgia Southern's is Max Johnson (1,649 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

App State and Georgia Southern: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.