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Colorado State vs. Utah State Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Colorado State at Utah State

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, Maverik Stadium.

The numbers say: Utah State, 72% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET
TVUSA Net
WhereMaverik Stadium
Weather55°, cloudy, wind 7 mph
LineUtah State −7.5, total 61.5
Line movementOpened Utah State −3.5; moved 4 points toward Utah State. Total opened 64.5, down 3.
SeriesColorado State leads 40–38–2
Last meetingColorado State 42–37 in 2024

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Utah State by 1.755%56
PRIMEUtah State by 10.076%
EloUtah State81%
The lineUtah State −7.5, opened −3.561.5, opened 64.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Colorado State or Utah State?

The numbers say: Utah State. 71% chance to win

Which matchups decide Colorado State vs. Utah State?

All three ratings favor Utah State, by 1.7 to 10.0 points. Utah State's best matchup is its big-play defense, 3rd in explosive plays allowed, against Colorado State's big-play offense at 79th. Colorado State's way back in is its takeaway defense, 5th in interceptions per pass, against Utah State's ball security at 133rd.

Colorado State with the ball

Utah State with the ball

Who's out for Colorado State and Utah State?

Colorado State

Utah State

How Colorado State and Utah State compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Colorado State and Utah State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Colorado State's and Utah State's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Colorado State and Utah State?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Colorado State 0.8 points better (103rd to 105th). PRIME has Utah State by 7.5 instead. The two ratings split on Utah State's defense: 67th in SP+, 28th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Utah State ahead (96th to 125th).

Colorado StateUtah State
SP+ overall-8.4 (103rd)-9.2 (105th)
SP+ offense28.6 (55th)17.2 (124th)
SP+ defense37.0 (131st)25.9 (67th)
SP+ special teams0.0 (68th)-0.5 (124th)
PRIME net-10.3 (111th)-2.8 (84th)
PRIME offense6.40 (29th)-7.50 (119th)
PRIME defense-16.15 (137th)4.79 (28th)
PRIME SOS-2.2 (66th)0.0 (44th)
PRIME SOR-0.9 (98th)-1.5 (110th)
Elo1171 (125th)1364 (96th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Colorado State's offense ranks 39th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Utah State defense it faces ranks 23rd in EPA per play allowed. Utah State's offense ranks 118th against Colorado State's 134th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Utah State's backs in the open field: 42nd in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Colorado State's 136th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Colorado State's offense falls from 11th to 39th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.

Colorado StateUtah State
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.15 (39th)+0.02 (118th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.21 (57th)+0.10 (124th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.13 (20th)+0.01 (122nd)
Success rate (adjusted)43.7% (42nd)35.7% (131st)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)47.1% (59th)41.5% (135th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)33.3% (19th)29.1% (100th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.96 (27th)0.95 (34th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.97 (64th)2.89 (93rd)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.19 (51st)1.21 (42nd)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.25 (134th)+0.04 (23rd)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.32 (134th)+0.13 (31st)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.20 (137th)+0.01 (24th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)51.7% (138th)39.8% (41st)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.97 (123rd)0.95 (98th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.30 (136th)2.80 (26th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.57 (136th)1.12 (69th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Colorado State or Utah State?

Colorado State is better running (4th in EPA per rush) than throwing (24th). Utah State's run defense ranks 51st, so that's an edge. Utah State is about as good throwing (130th in EPA per pass) as running (122nd). On third down, Colorado State has the edge: its offense ranks 8th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 80th.

Colorado StateUtah State
EPA per play+0.30 (11th)−0.04 (128th)
EPA per pass+0.39 (24th)−0.04 (130th)
EPA per rush+0.27 (4th)−0.03 (122nd)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.79 (8th)+0.44 (76th)
EPA per play allowed+0.35 (138th)+0.04 (43rd)
EPA per pass allowed+0.50 (136th)+0.08 (37th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.37 (138th)+0.01 (51st)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.81 (135th)+0.42 (80th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Colorado State or Utah State?

Colorado State is outscored by 5.4 a game, and Utah State is outscored by 8.1. Colorado State's offense ranks 12th in scoring, and the Utah State defense it faces ranks 58th in points allowed. Utah State's offense ranks 137th against Colorado State's 138th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Colorado State's offense against Utah State's defense.

Colorado StateUtah State
Points scored38.6 (12th)14.9 (137th)
Points allowed44.0 (138th)23.0 (58th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Colorado State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 18th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Utah State's defense ranks 97th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Utah State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 98th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Colorado State's defense ranks 136th in 3rd down conversions allowed.

Colorado StateUtah State
Pass yards / game295.6 (12th)195.7 (103rd)
Rush yards / game177.4 (56th)131.9 (110th)
Yards per play6.93 (20th)5.53 (116th)
Yards per carry6.27 (9th)4.64 (109th)
Yards per attempt7.47 (78th)6.78 (101st)
Completion %61.4% (80th)58.4% (92nd)
Success rate46.0% (42nd)36.6% (127th)
Explosive play rate11.9% (79th)10.6% (106th)
3rd down conversion48.0% (18th)35.8% (98th)
Sack rate (taken)1.1% (3rd)6.5% (91st)
INT rate (thrown)1.8% (46th)5.0% (133rd)
SUPLEX58.4% (48th)48.8% (119th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Colorado State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 5th in interception rate, and Utah State's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (133rd). That's a mismatch. Utah State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 3rd in explosive plays allowed, and Colorado State's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (79th). That's a mismatch.

Colorado StateUtah State
Pass yards allowed / game274.9 (131st)215.4 (76th)
Rush yards allowed / game273.4 (138th)143.3 (61st)
Yards per play allowed8.90 (138th)4.93 (14th)
Yards per carry allowed7.31 (138th)4.60 (53rd)
Yards per attempt allowed11.88 (138th)5.50 (11th)
Success rate allowed58.2% (138th)38.3% (46th)
Explosive plays allowed19.7% (138th)6.7% (3rd)
3rd downs allowed55.1% (136th)42.3% (97th)
Sack rate (generated)4.1% (117th)5.8% (76th)
INT rate (generated)5.6% (5th)1.1% (122nd)
SUPLEX allowed80.7% (138th)44.1% (17th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Colorado State ranks 4th and Utah State 137th.

Colorado StateUtah State
Big Uglies: offensive line58.4 (16th)40.8 (126th)
Big Uglies: defensive front33.8 (138th)51.0 (62nd)
Line yards per carry3.09 (62nd)2.93 (93rd)
Line yards allowed per carry3.74 (138th)2.72 (37th)
Second-level yards per carry1.03 (91st)1.03 (87th)
Open-field yards per carry1.75 (17th)1.22 (66th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)16.2% (45th)22.1% (122nd)
Stuff rate (defense)10.7% (137th)20.1% (50th)
Power success (short yardage)86.7% (4th)45.0% (137th)
Power success allowed87.9% (132nd)75.9% (100th)
Front-seven havoc allowed7.0% (21st)9.9% (93rd)
Front-seven havoc7.7% (116th)8.7% (90th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Colorado State is +1.1 in turnover margin a game and Utah State is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 9-point edge for Colorado State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

Colorado StateUtah State
Interceptions thrown / game0.71 (61st)1.43 (131st)
Fumbles lost / game0.14 (3rd)0.29 (20th)
Giveaways / game0.86 (25th)1.71 (117th)
Interceptions / game1.29 (10th)0.43 (105th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.71 (24th)0.57 (51st)
Takeaways / game2.00 (6th)1.00 (88th)
Turnover margin / game+1.1 (7th)-0.7 (116th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Colorado State has the more talented roster (75th in the 247Sports talent composite; Utah State is 123rd). But Utah State plays further above its talent: −1.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Colorado State's −7.0.

Colorado StateUtah State
Talent composite640.3 (75th)544.0 (123rd)
Blue-chip ratio10.8% (65th)5.6% (95th)
Players on roster82 (138th)89 (137th)
Rated by 247Sports74 (84th)54 (131st)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players8 (62nd)3 (94th)
3-star players66 (52nd)47 (110th)
Below 3-star0 (113th)4 (38th)
2026 transfers in36 (19th)32 (24th)
Transfer share48.6% (20th)59.3% (11th)
SP+ vs. talent-7.0 (111th)-1.8 (77th)
Returning production39.6% (68th)65.2% (32nd)
Returning passing production23.0% (69th)86.6% (49th)
Returning rushing production-28.0% (129th)74.4% (46th)
Returning receiving production58.4% (29th)48.6% (50th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)73 (73rd)97 (97th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes79.5 (76th)101.2 (104th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Colorado State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.1). Utah State is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−0.6).

Colorado StateUtah State
RECEIPTS (total)-0.5 (89th)-1.5 (115th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.4 (73rd)+0.1 (84th)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.1 (78th)-0.6 (106th)
Coach RECEIPTS-1.1 (113th)-0.4 (86th)
Luck RECEIPTS+0.3 (47th)-0.6 (106th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Colorado State at Utah State: questions people ask

Colorado State vs. Utah State prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Utah State, 71% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Utah State's best matchup is its big-play defense, 3rd in explosive plays allowed, against Colorado State's big-play offense at 79th.

Where can I watch Colorado State vs. Utah State, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET at Maverik Stadium. It's on USA Net.

What's the projected score of Colorado State vs. Utah State?

SP+ projects Utah State 29–27. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Colorado State at Utah State?

DraftKings has Utah State −7.5, total 61.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Colorado State vs. Utah State series history?

Colorado State leads 40–38–2. Last meeting: Colorado State won 42–37 in 2024.

Who are the players to watch in Colorado State vs. Utah State?

Colorado State: Ksaan Farrar (1,005 passing yards), Jayden Brown (454 rushing yards) and Reginald Vick Jr (367 receiving yards). Utah State: Grady Brosterhous (1,139 passing yards), Javen Jacobs (460 rushing yards) and Eli Wood (479 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Colorado State at Utah State?

Colorado State's is Ksaan Farrar (1,005 passing yards this season); Utah State's is Grady Brosterhous (1,139 passing yards this season).

Who's out for Colorado State at Utah State?

Colorado State: Reginald Vick Jr (WR) hasn't played since Week 5.

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Colorado State and Utah State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.