This week's picks

Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas Prediction, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Florida Atlantic at North Texas

Week 9, Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET, DATCU Stadium.

The numbers say: North Texas, 79% to win.

The game

KickoffThu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET
TVESPN
WhereDATCU Stadium
Weather71°, cloudy, wind 6 mph
LineNorth Texas −14, total 77.5
Line movementOpened North Texas −12.5; moved 1.5 points toward North Texas. Total opened 69.5, up 8.
SeriesFlorida Atlantic leads 8–7
Last meetingNorth Texas 41–37 in 2024

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+North Texas by 5.365%79
PRIMENorth Texas by 9.074%
EloNorth Texas94%
The lineNorth Texas −14, opened −12.577.5, opened 69.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Thu, Oct 29, 4:16 PM ET.

Who wins, Florida Atlantic or North Texas?

The numbers say: North Texas. 78% chance to win

Which matchups decide Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas?

All three ratings favor North Texas, by 5.3 to 9.0 points. North Texas' best matchup is its offense, 6th in yards per play, against Florida Atlantic's defense at 136th. Florida Atlantic's way back in is its scoring offense, 17th in points per game, against North Texas' scoring defense at 116th.

Florida Atlantic with the ball

North Texas with the ball

Who's out for Florida Atlantic and North Texas?

Florida Atlantic

North Texas

How Florida Atlantic and North Texas compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Florida Atlantic and North Texas are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Florida Atlantic's and North Texas' players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Florida Atlantic and North Texas?

On a neutral field, SP+ has North Texas 2.8 points better (72nd to 90th). PRIME also has North Texas ahead, by 6.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has North Texas ahead (36th to 117th).

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
SP+ overall-3.4 (90th)-0.6 (72nd)
SP+ offense30.1 (44th)33.5 (24th)
SP+ defense33.9 (123rd)33.7 (119th)
SP+ special teams0.3 (28th)-0.4 (113th)
PRIME net-4.9 (92nd)1.6 (61st)
PRIME offense1.80 (47th)8.06 (22nd)
PRIME defense-7.25 (121st)-6.47 (117th)
PRIME SOS-5.5 (98th)-3.8 (81st)
PRIME SOR-0.1 (72nd)1.3 (34th)
Elo1239 (117th)1675 (36th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Florida Atlantic's offense ranks 49th in adjusted EPA per play, and the North Texas defense it faces ranks 70th in EPA per play allowed. North Texas' offense ranks 10th against Florida Atlantic's 131st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is North Texas' offense against Florida Atlantic's defense. The biggest edge on the board is North Texas' big plays: 17th in adjusted explosiveness, against Florida Atlantic's 138th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Florida Atlantic's offense falls from 28th to 49th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.13 (49th)+0.22 (10th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.23 (40th)+0.32 (10th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.06 (70th)+0.10 (44th)
Success rate (adjusted)44.2% (36th)46.7% (18th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)48.3% (42nd)50.8% (18th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)33.2% (20th)32.6% (25th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.94 (49th)0.97 (17th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.83 (109th)2.99 (54th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)0.82 (138th)1.31 (25th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.23 (131st)+0.11 (70th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.24 (96th)+0.28 (122nd)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.21 (138th)+0.04 (48th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)44.0% (100th)43.1% (92nd)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)1.03 (138th)0.92 (34th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.06 (101st)2.82 (27th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.90 (138th)1.26 (100th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Florida Atlantic or North Texas?

Florida Atlantic is better throwing (29th in EPA per pass) than running (83rd). North Texas' pass defense ranks 132nd, so that's a mismatch. North Texas is better throwing (2nd in EPA per pass) than running (37th). Florida Atlantic's pass defense ranks 108th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, North Texas has the edge: its offense ranks 13th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 127th.

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
EPA per play+0.23 (28th)+0.35 (4th)
EPA per pass+0.38 (29th)+0.55 (2nd)
EPA per rush+0.07 (83rd)+0.16 (37th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.79 (8th)+0.74 (13th)
EPA per play allowed+0.26 (130th)+0.13 (89th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.30 (108th)+0.43 (132nd)
EPA per rush allowed+0.30 (136th)−0.05 (27th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.63 (127th)+0.43 (82nd)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Florida Atlantic or North Texas?

Florida Atlantic outscores FBS opponents by 3.3 a game, and North Texas by 12.5. Florida Atlantic's offense ranks 17th in scoring, and the North Texas defense it faces ranks 116th in points allowed. North Texas' offense ranks 2nd against Florida Atlantic's 129th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
Points scored37.3 (17th)43.1 (2nd)
Points allowed34.0 (129th)30.6 (116th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Florida Atlantic's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 31st in success rate, and North Texas' defense ranks 85th in success rate allowed. North Texas' best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 15th in explosive play rate, and Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 125th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
Pass yards / game323.7 (5th)347.6 (2nd)
Rush yards / game137.9 (103rd)190.3 (39th)
Yards per play6.06 (75th)7.61 (6th)
Yards per carry4.16 (125th)5.72 (33rd)
Yards per attempt7.87 (59th)9.50 (12th)
Completion %69.8% (31st)69.5% (32nd)
Success rate47.3% (31st)50.1% (15th)
Explosive play rate9.9% (116th)15.3% (15th)
3rd down conversion50.0% (13th)46.8% (28th)
Sack rate (taken)4.3% (37th)2.3% (8th)
INT rate (thrown)1.4% (33rd)1.9% (49th)
SUPLEX53.4% (88th)68.7% (6th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Florida Atlantic's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 18th in interception rate, and North Texas' offense is above average at avoiding interceptions (49th). North Texas' defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 76th in yards per carry allowed, and Florida Atlantic's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (125th).

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
Pass yards allowed / game187.9 (32nd)204.1 (54th)
Rush yards allowed / game264.4 (137th)185.1 (111th)
Yards per play allowed7.38 (136th)6.18 (89th)
Yards per carry allowed6.93 (137th)4.89 (76th)
Yards per attempt allowed8.59 (113th)8.77 (116th)
Success rate allowed45.2% (105th)43.3% (85th)
Explosive plays allowed14.7% (125th)12.7% (100th)
3rd downs allowed41.9% (95th)38.2% (66th)
Sack rate (generated)5.6% (80th)7.4% (42nd)
INT rate (generated)3.9% (18th)3.1% (47th)
SUPLEX allowed61.1% (114th)59.6% (107th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

North Texas has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where North Texas ranks 12th and Florida Atlantic 136th.

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
Big Uglies: offensive line49.1 (81st)53.2 (45th)
Big Uglies: defensive front45.1 (95th)54.8 (30th)
Line yards per carry2.78 (110th)3.06 (68th)
Line yards allowed per carry3.09 (97th)2.64 (26th)
Second-level yards per carry0.80 (129th)1.22 (30th)
Open-field yards per carry0.44 (136th)1.89 (12th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)18.6% (86th)18.5% (84th)
Stuff rate (defense)18.7% (73rd)19.4% (61st)
Power success (short yardage)74.4% (57th)63.6% (117th)
Power success allowed78.1% (110th)67.5% (49th)
Front-seven havoc allowed8.7% (57th)6.1% (13th)
Front-seven havoc8.3% (102nd)10.9% (38th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: Florida Atlantic is +0.3 a game and North Texas +0.3. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and North Texas' takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.5 a game).

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
Interceptions thrown / game0.63 (51st)0.63 (51st)
Fumbles lost / game0.50 (67th)0.63 (89th)
Giveaways / game1.13 (49th)1.25 (63rd)
Interceptions / game0.75 (59th)0.75 (59th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.63 (42nd)0.75 (15th)
Takeaways / game1.38 (51st)1.50 (37th)
Turnover margin / game+0.3 (57th)+0.3 (57th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

North Texas has the more talented roster (95th in the 247Sports talent composite; Florida Atlantic is 98th). North Texas also plays further above its talent: +3.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Florida Atlantic's +0.9.

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
Talent composite593.4 (98th)602.1 (95th)
Blue-chip ratio2.9% (112th)9.8% (71st)
Players on roster115 (40th)106 (99th)
Rated by 247Sports68 (103rd)61 (118th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players2 (106th)6 (73rd)
3-star players60 (74th)53 (99th)
Below 3-star6 (20th)2 (68th)
2026 transfers in30 (31st)49 (4th)
Transfer share44.1% (27th)80.3% (1st)
SP+ vs. talent+0.9 (61st)+3.2 (49th)
Returning production68.4% (26th)2.5% (129th)
Returning passing production93.4% (38th)2.4% (105th)
Returning rushing production106.8% (13th)2.8% (111th)
Returning receiving production47.5% (51st)2.4% (131st)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)130 (130th)137 (135th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes94.0 (93rd)104.5 (110th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Florida Atlantic is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). North Texas is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.1). North Texas' record is running 1.1 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas
RECEIPTS (total)+1.5 (30th)+1.5 (30th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+1.3 (25th)+0.6 (66th)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.3 (92nd)-0.5 (100th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.2 (76th)+0.3 (55th)
Luck RECEIPTS+0.6 (30th)+1.1 (9th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Florida Atlantic at North Texas: questions people ask

Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick North Texas, 78% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. North Texas' best matchup is its offense, 6th in yards per play, against Florida Atlantic's defense at 136th.

Where can I watch Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas, and what time is it?

Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET at DATCU Stadium. It's on ESPN.

What's the projected score of Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas?

SP+ projects North Texas 42–37. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Florida Atlantic at North Texas?

DraftKings has North Texas −14, total 77.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas series history?

Florida Atlantic leads 8–7. Last meeting: North Texas won 41–37 in 2024.

Who are the players to watch in Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas?

Florida Atlantic: Caden Veltkamp (2,607 passing yards), Ethan Ervin (369 rushing yards) and Easton Messer (950 receiving yards). North Texas: Tayven Jackson (2,598 passing yards), Jahiem White (1,054 rushing yards) and Justin Stevenson (781 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Florida Atlantic at North Texas?

Florida Atlantic's is Caden Veltkamp (2,607 passing yards this season); North Texas' is Tayven Jackson (2,598 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Florida Atlantic and North Texas: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.