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Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Southern Miss at UL Monroe

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, Malone Stadium.

The numbers say: Southern Miss, 66% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET
TVESPN+
WhereMalone Stadium
Weather75°, cloudy, wind 7 mph
LineSouthern Miss −3.5, total 55.5
Line movementOpened Southern Miss −3; moved 0.5 points toward Southern Miss. Total opened 52.5, up 3.
SeriesSouthern Miss leads 7–3
Last meetingSouthern Miss 49–21 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Southern Miss by 5.766%56
PRIMESouthern Miss by 4.162%
EloSouthern Miss65%
The lineSouthern Miss −3.5, opened −355.5, opened 52.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Southern Miss or UL Monroe?

The numbers say: Southern Miss. 64% chance to win

Which matchups decide Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe?

All three ratings favor Southern Miss, by 4.1 to 5.7 points. Southern Miss' best matchup is its offensive line, 38th in line yards per carry, against UL Monroe's run-stopping front at 135th. UL Monroe's way back in is its early-down offense, 29th in SUPLEX, against Southern Miss' early-down defense at 89th.

Southern Miss with the ball

UL Monroe with the ball

Who's out for Southern Miss and UL Monroe?

Southern Miss

UL Monroe

How Southern Miss and UL Monroe compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Southern Miss and UL Monroe are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Southern Miss' and UL Monroe's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Southern Miss and UL Monroe?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Southern Miss 8.2 points better (126th to 133rd). PRIME also has Southern Miss ahead, by 6.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Southern Miss ahead (122nd to 133rd).

Southern MissUL Monroe
SP+ overall-16.0 (126th)-24.2 (133rd)
SP+ offense20.2 (108th)14.7 (131st)
SP+ defense35.6 (129th)38.2 (134th)
SP+ special teams-0.6 (131st)-0.7 (137th)
PRIME net-13.2 (122nd)-19.8 (134th)
PRIME offense-5.20 (105th)-10.32 (133rd)
PRIME defense-7.32 (122nd)-7.63 (125th)
PRIME SOS-6.8 (113th)-4.4 (87th)
PRIME SOR-2.6 (126th)-3.2 (130th)
Elo1197 (122nd)1036 (133rd)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Southern Miss' offense ranks 129th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UL Monroe defense it faces ranks 122nd in EPA per play allowed. UL Monroe's offense ranks 127th against Southern Miss' 116th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Southern Miss' offensive line in the run game: 38th in adjusted line yards per carry, against UL Monroe's 135th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.

Southern MissUL Monroe
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.00 (129th)+0.01 (127th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.08 (129th)+0.16 (92nd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.05 (84th)−0.03 (129th)
Success rate (adjusted)38.0% (117th)37.2% (123rd)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)46.7% (69th)44.5% (109th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)24.7% (138th)27.6% (120th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.93 (84th)0.91 (123rd)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)3.07 (38th)2.84 (108th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.14 (66th)0.91 (128th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.18 (116th)+0.20 (122nd)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.22 (86th)+0.26 (110th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.15 (128th)+0.14 (125th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)46.7% (125th)44.6% (106th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.95 (102nd)0.95 (96th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.16 (120th)3.26 (135th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.37 (124th)1.24 (97th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Southern Miss or UL Monroe?

Southern Miss is better running (55th in EPA per rush) than throwing (119th). UL Monroe's run defense ranks 121st, so that's a mismatch. UL Monroe is about as good throwing (126th in EPA per pass) as running (118th).

Southern MissUL Monroe
EPA per play+0.02 (118th)−0.05 (132nd)
EPA per pass+0.03 (119th)−0.01 (126th)
EPA per rush+0.13 (55th)−0.01 (118th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.10 (132nd)+0.15 (126th)
EPA per play allowed+0.16 (103rd)+0.22 (119th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.22 (83rd)+0.34 (116th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.19 (126th)+0.18 (121st)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.40 (72nd)+0.48 (97th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Southern Miss or UL Monroe?

Southern Miss is outscored by 6.7 a game, and UL Monroe is outscored by 17.2. Southern Miss' offense ranks 91st in scoring, and the UL Monroe defense it faces ranks 134th in points allowed. UL Monroe's offense ranks 120th against Southern Miss' 123rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Southern Miss' offense against UL Monroe's defense.

Southern MissUL Monroe
Points scored25.7 (91st)20.1 (120th)
Points allowed32.4 (123rd)37.3 (134th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Southern Miss' best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 53rd in yards per carry, and UL Monroe's defense ranks 119th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. UL Monroe's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 29th in SUPLEX, and Southern Miss' defense ranks 89th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch.

Southern MissUL Monroe
Pass yards / game255.9 (42nd)218.4 (80th)
Rush yards / game169.0 (64th)121.6 (123rd)
Yards per play6.26 (61st)5.98 (87th)
Yards per carry5.40 (53rd)4.19 (123rd)
Yards per attempt7.34 (82nd)8.40 (41st)
Completion %61.9% (78th)75.8% (9th)
Success rate43.6% (71st)45.7% (46th)
Explosive play rate13.1% (45th)12.1% (73rd)
3rd down conversion32.6% (120th)33.3% (112th)
Sack rate (taken)4.7% (47th)6.7% (93rd)
INT rate (thrown)3.7% (117th)3.3% (107th)
SUPLEX61.1% (30th)61.3% (29th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Southern Miss' defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 30th in sack rate, and UL Monroe's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (93rd). That's a mismatch. UL Monroe's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 84th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Southern Miss' offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (120th).

Southern MissUL Monroe
Pass yards allowed / game205.1 (58th)227.4 (98th)
Rush yards allowed / game249.4 (136th)228.3 (135th)
Yards per play allowed5.98 (80th)6.15 (88th)
Yards per carry allowed5.71 (118th)5.73 (119th)
Yards per attempt allowed6.90 (61st)7.01 (67th)
Success rate allowed43.0% (82nd)43.5% (88th)
Explosive plays allowed12.4% (96th)12.1% (89th)
3rd downs allowed38.6% (69th)40.4% (84th)
Sack rate (generated)8.0% (30th)5.4% (83rd)
INT rate (generated)2.9% (55th)1.3% (112th)
SUPLEX allowed56.9% (89th)54.2% (71st)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Southern Miss has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards per carry, where Southern Miss ranks 15th and UL Monroe 113th.

Southern MissUL Monroe
Big Uglies: offensive line57.9 (18th)43.8 (115th)
Big Uglies: defensive front44.0 (107th)38.4 (129th)
Line yards per carry3.44 (15th)2.74 (113th)
Line yards allowed per carry3.11 (101st)3.39 (130th)
Second-level yards per carry1.08 (72nd)0.91 (118th)
Open-field yards per carry1.10 (79th)0.82 (112th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)12.6% (11th)20.3% (106th)
Stuff rate (defense)16.7% (97th)12.6% (132nd)
Power success (short yardage)75.9% (46th)63.3% (121st)
Power success allowed83.8% (129th)76.2% (104th)
Front-seven havoc allowed6.8% (20th)10.0% (95th)
Front-seven havoc8.7% (91st)7.5% (121st)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: Southern Miss is −0.4 a game and UL Monroe −0.4.

Southern MissUL Monroe
Interceptions thrown / game1.29 (128th)0.86 (85th)
Fumbles lost / game0.29 (20th)0.43 (53rd)
Giveaways / game1.57 (107th)1.29 (72nd)
Interceptions / game0.86 (45th)0.43 (106th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.29 (96th)0.43 (71st)
Takeaways / game1.14 (67th)0.86 (108th)
Turnover margin / game-0.4 (98th)-0.4 (100th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Southern Miss has the more talented roster (94th in the 247Sports talent composite; UL Monroe is 132nd). Southern Miss also plays further above its talent: −12.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to UL Monroe's −14.3.

Southern MissUL Monroe
Talent composite602.6 (94th)505.5 (132nd)
Blue-chip ratio11.7% (61st)1.8% (119th)
Players on roster112 (58th)98 (134th)
Rated by 247Sports60 (121st)56 (128th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players7 (70th)1 (119th)
3-star players52 (102nd)46 (114th)
Below 3-star1 (86th)9 (6th)
2026 transfers in39 (14th)20 (76th)
Transfer share65.0% (8th)35.7% (43rd)
SP+ vs. talent-12.2 (127th)-14.3 (133rd)
Returning production90.2% (7th)38.7% (70th)
Returning passing production97.4% (21st)78.2% (54th)
Returning rushing production101.9% (15th)15.7% (99th)
Returning receiving production81.9% (11th)25.9% (92nd)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)108 (108th)127 (127th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes92.8 (90th)120.5 (126th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Southern Miss is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.1). UL Monroe is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.9).

Southern MissUL Monroe
RECEIPTS (total)-1.5 (115th)-2.5 (129th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+1.1 (40th)+1.3 (28th)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.3 (86th)-1.4 (134th)
Coach RECEIPTS-2.1 (136th)-1.9 (133rd)
Luck RECEIPTS-0.2 (79th)-0.6 (104th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Southern Miss at UL Monroe: questions people ask

Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Southern Miss, 64% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Southern Miss' best matchup is its offensive line, 38th in line yards per carry, against UL Monroe's run-stopping front at 135th.

Where can I watch Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET at Malone Stadium. It's on ESPN+.

What's the projected score of Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe?

SP+ projects Southern Miss 31–25. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Southern Miss at UL Monroe?

DraftKings has Southern Miss −3.5, total 55.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe series history?

Southern Miss leads 7–3. Last meeting: Southern Miss won 49–21 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe?

Southern Miss: Landy Lyddy (1,216 passing yards), Steven Robinson (577 rushing yards) and Mario Sanders II (573 receiving yards). UL Monroe: Aidan Armenta (1,147 passing yards), Bryson Roland (147 rushing yards) and Marcellus Jackson (289 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Southern Miss at UL Monroe?

Southern Miss' is Landy Lyddy (1,216 passing yards this season); UL Monroe's is Aidan Armenta (1,147 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Southern Miss and UL Monroe: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.