This week's picks

Washington vs. Nebraska Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Washington at Nebraska

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET, Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE).

The numbers say: Nebraska, 76% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET
TVBTN
WhereMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Weather59°, light rain, wind 9 mph
LineNebraska −7.5, total 49.5
Line movementOpened Nebraska −9.5; moved 2 points toward Washington.
SeriesNebraska leads 5–4–1
Last meetingNebraska 51–38 in 2011

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Nebraska by 8.473%47
PRIMENebraska by 15.787%
EloNebraska66%
The lineNebraska −7.5, opened −9.549.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Washington or Nebraska?

The numbers say: Nebraska. 75% chance to win

Which matchups decide Washington vs. Nebraska?

All three ratings favor Nebraska, by 8.4 to 15.7 points. Nebraska's best matchup is its 3rd down defense, 1st in 3rd downs allowed, against Washington's 3rd down offense at 85th. Washington's way back in is its defense, 27th in yards per play allowed, against Nebraska's offense at 63rd.

Washington with the ball

Nebraska with the ball

Who's out for Washington and Nebraska?

Washington

Nebraska

How Washington and Nebraska compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Washington and Nebraska are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Washington's and Nebraska's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Washington and Nebraska?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Nebraska 5.9 points better (15th to 35th). PRIME also has Nebraska ahead, by 13.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Nebraska ahead (19th to 33rd).

WashingtonNebraska
SP+ overall9.5 (35th)15.4 (15th)
SP+ offense29.7 (49th)32.2 (34th)
SP+ defense20.2 (30th)16.7 (16th)
SP+ special teams0.0 (68th)-0.1 (80th)
PRIME net3.2 (53rd)16.4 (12th)
PRIME offense0.66 (58th)7.90 (24th)
PRIME defense2.53 (49th)8.82 (13th)
PRIME SOS-2.2 (66th)-2.6 (71st)
PRIME SOR0.1 (65th)1.1 (37th)
Elo1704 (33rd)1767 (19th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Washington's offense ranks 76th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Nebraska defense it faces ranks 29th in EPA per play allowed. Nebraska's offense ranks 22nd against Washington's 51st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Nebraska's offense against Washington's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Nebraska's backs in the open field: 21st in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Washington's 88th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Washington's defense falls from 24th to 51st in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.

WashingtonNebraska
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.10 (76th)+0.19 (22nd)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.23 (37th)+0.21 (52nd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.02 (113th)+0.16 (4th)
Success rate (adjusted)41.9% (60th)45.4% (31st)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)47.8% (48th)47.7% (49th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)28.4% (112th)35.1% (9th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.92 (97th)1.00 (3rd)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.85 (107th)3.04 (41st)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.18 (53rd)1.31 (21st)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.07 (51st)+0.04 (29th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.18 (66th)+0.08 (8th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.04 (49th)+0.07 (75th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)41.2% (59th)36.9% (17th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.94 (68th)0.94 (85th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.85 (35th)2.94 (65th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.19 (88th)1.01 (38th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Washington or Nebraska?

Washington is better throwing (37th in EPA per pass) than running (115th). Nebraska's pass defense ranks 2nd, so the defense has the better of it. Nebraska is better running (8th in EPA per rush) than throwing (58th). Washington's run defense ranks 18th, so that's strength on strength.

WashingtonNebraska
EPA per play+0.14 (67th)+0.24 (25th)
EPA per pass+0.34 (37th)+0.25 (58th)
EPA per rush0.00 (115th)+0.25 (8th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.22 (122nd)+0.85 (4th)
EPA per play allowed0.00 (24th)−0.06 (9th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.15 (63rd)−0.11 (2nd)
EPA per rush allowed−0.07 (18th)−0.03 (33rd)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.09 (6th)−0.40 (1st)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Washington or Nebraska?

Washington outscores FBS opponents by 5.2 a game, and Nebraska by 20.2. Washington's offense ranks 76th in scoring, and the Nebraska defense it faces ranks 14th in points allowed. Nebraska's offense ranks 29th against Washington's 56th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Nebraska's offense against Washington's defense.

WashingtonNebraska
Points scored27.9 (76th)35.6 (29th)
Points allowed22.7 (56th)15.4 (14th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Washington has no clear edge here. Its best is SUPLEX, 39th, against a defense ranked 49th in SUPLEX allowed. Nebraska has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 34th, against a defense ranked 28th in yards per carry allowed.

WashingtonNebraska
Pass yards / game284.7 (19th)244.3 (53rd)
Rush yards / game120.7 (125th)203.7 (29th)
Yards per play6.69 (30th)6.22 (63rd)
Yards per carry4.77 (99th)5.70 (34th)
Yards per attempt8.78 (28th)7.04 (92nd)
Completion %74.0% (13th)60.1% (85th)
Success rate45.1% (58th)43.6% (70th)
Explosive play rate14.6% (24th)12.7% (55th)
3rd down conversion37.7% (85th)47.6% (21st)
Sack rate (taken)8.1% (113th)4.3% (38th)
INT rate (thrown)2.6% (84th)1.7% (39th)
SUPLEX59.6% (39th)55.2% (77th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Washington's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 20th in explosive plays allowed, and Nebraska's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (55th). Nebraska's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 1st in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Washington's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (85th). That's a mismatch.

WashingtonNebraska
Pass yards allowed / game209.0 (67th)176.6 (19th)
Rush yards allowed / game130.0 (40th)118.7 (25th)
Yards per play allowed5.23 (27th)5.14 (23rd)
Yards per carry allowed4.17 (28th)4.24 (34th)
Yards per attempt allowed6.53 (46th)6.51 (45th)
Success rate allowed37.7% (37th)35.1% (14th)
Explosive plays allowed9.3% (20th)9.4% (25th)
3rd downs allowed29.6% (14th)20.7% (1st)
Sack rate (generated)5.1% (94th)7.8% (32nd)
INT rate (generated)4.0% (17th)3.7% (24th)
SUPLEX allowed52.5% (58th)51.0% (49th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Nebraska has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Washington ranks 7th and Nebraska 125th.

WashingtonNebraska
Big Uglies: offensive line43.0 (119th)53.9 (40th)
Big Uglies: defensive front57.9 (17th)52.6 (48th)
Line yards per carry2.84 (104th)3.05 (74th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.52 (11th)2.71 (35th)
Second-level yards per carry0.91 (118th)1.25 (22nd)
Open-field yards per carry1.47 (34th)1.71 (20th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)21.3% (113th)18.7% (87th)
Stuff rate (defense)27.3% (6th)21.1% (38th)
Power success (short yardage)66.7% (100th)80.0% (24th)
Power success allowed56.0% (7th)82.3% (125th)
Front-seven havoc allowed10.2% (100th)8.8% (61st)
Front-seven havoc11.0% (37th)12.9% (11th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Nebraska is +0.9 in turnover margin a game and Washington is +0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Nebraska. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

WashingtonNebraska
Interceptions thrown / game0.86 (84th)0.57 (40th)
Fumbles lost / game0.43 (53rd)0.00 (1st)
Giveaways / game1.29 (72nd)0.57 (7th)
Interceptions / game1.29 (10th)1.00 (22nd)
Fumbles recovered / game0.29 (94th)0.43 (69th)
Takeaways / game1.57 (28th)1.43 (41st)
Turnover margin / game+0.3 (50th)+0.9 (13th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Nebraska has the more talented roster (22nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Washington is 24th). Nebraska also plays further above its talent: +7.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Washington's +2.3.

WashingtonNebraska
Talent composite777.6 (24th)787.5 (22nd)
Blue-chip ratio30.8% (27th)31.1% (26th)
Players on roster101 (129th)116 (34th)
Rated by 247Sports91 (19th)90 (23rd)
5-star players1 (24th)1 (24th)
4-star players27 (24th)27 (24th)
3-star players59 (82nd)60 (74th)
Below 3-star4 (38th)2 (68th)
2026 transfers in14 (118th)17 (103rd)
Transfer share15.4% (123rd)18.9% (114th)
SP+ vs. talent+2.3 (54th)+7.6 (26th)
Returning production54.4% (50th)46.3% (59th)
Returning passing production94.2% (34th)5.2% (95th)
Returning rushing production51.9% (64th)29.5% (82nd)
Returning receiving production34.2% (72nd)74.1% (15th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)13 (13th)88 (88th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes27.2 (22nd)38.2 (32nd)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Nebraska's roster is valued at $23.3M, Washington's at $22.4M. Nebraska also plays better per dollar: +6.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +1.8 for Washington.

WashingtonNebraska
Roster value$22.4M (32nd)$23.3M (29th)
Roster cost per win$5.6M (40th)$4.7M (25th)
Projected wins per $1M0.32 (25th)0.36 (15th)
SP+ vs. payroll+1.8 (31st)+6.8 (12th)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Washington is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.1). Nebraska is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+0.9). Washington's record is 1.1 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.

WashingtonNebraska
RECEIPTS (total)+0.5 (57th)+1.5 (30th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.5 (68th)+0.4 (73rd)
Roster RECEIPTS+0.7 (25th)+0.7 (29th)
Coach RECEIPTS+0.4 (51st)+0.9 (34th)
Luck RECEIPTS-1.1 (124th)-0.4 (93rd)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Washington at Nebraska: questions people ask

Washington vs. Nebraska prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Nebraska, 75% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Nebraska's best matchup is its 3rd down defense, 1st in 3rd downs allowed, against Washington's 3rd down offense at 85th.

Where can I watch Washington vs. Nebraska, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE). It's on BTN.

What's the projected score of Washington vs. Nebraska?

SP+ projects Nebraska 28–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Washington at Nebraska?

DraftKings has Nebraska −7.5, total 49.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Washington vs. Nebraska series history?

Nebraska leads 5–4–1. Last meeting: Nebraska won 51–38 in 2011.

Who are the players to watch in Washington vs. Nebraska?

Washington: Demond Williams Jr. (1,398 passing yards), Brian Bonner Jr. (295 rushing yards) and Chris Lawson (493 receiving yards). Nebraska: Anthony Colandrea (1,627 passing yards), Jamal Rule (385 rushing yards) and Kwazi Gilmer (492 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Washington at Nebraska?

Washington's is Demond Williams Jr. (1,398 passing yards this season); Nebraska's is Anthony Colandrea (1,627 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Washington and Nebraska: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.