This week's picks

SMU vs. Syracuse Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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SMU at Syracuse

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, JMA Wireless Dome.

The numbers say: SMU, 81% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET
TVESPN2
WhereJMA Wireless Dome
WeatherIndoors
LineSMU −10.5, total 58.5
Line movementOpened SMU −12.5; moved 2 points toward Syracuse. Total opened 55.5, up 3.
SeriesSMU leads 2–0
Last meetingSMU 31–18 in 2025
Syracuse injuriesAmari Odom (QB), out; Malachi Nelson (QB), out

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+SMU by 13.784%56
PRIMESMU by 7.671%
EloSMU90%
The lineSMU −10.5, opened −12.558.5, opened 55.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, SMU or Syracuse?

The numbers say: SMU. 81% chance to win

Which matchups decide SMU vs. Syracuse?

All three ratings favor SMU, by 7.6 to 13.7 points, and it isn't close. SMU's best matchup is its run-stopping front, 29th in line yards allowed per carry, against Syracuse's offensive line at 131st. Syracuse's way back in is its run-stopping front, 34th in line yards allowed per carry, against SMU's offensive line at 98th. We left out the edges built on Dramekco Green and Nelson, who are out.

SMU with the ball

Syracuse with the ball

Who's out for SMU and Syracuse?

SMU

Syracuse

How SMU and Syracuse compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; SMU and Syracuse are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How SMU's and Syracuse's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate SMU and Syracuse?

On a neutral field, SP+ has SMU 16.2 points better (21st to 87th). PRIME also has SMU ahead, by 10.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has SMU ahead (21st to 104th).

SMUSyracuse
SP+ overall13.4 (21st)-2.8 (87th)
SP+ offense34.1 (19th)25.7 (77th)
SP+ defense20.4 (31st)28.3 (85th)
SP+ special teams-0.4 (113th)-0.2 (92nd)
PRIME net8.6 (33rd)-1.5 (77th)
PRIME offense5.75 (33rd)0.44 (60th)
PRIME defense2.85 (45th)-0.84 (75th)
PRIME SOS-4.0 (84th)-0.5 (48th)
PRIME SOR1.8 (22nd)-0.6 (85th)
Elo1759 (21st)1328 (104th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

SMU's offense ranks 42nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Syracuse defense it faces ranks 71st in EPA per play allowed. Syracuse's offense ranks 106th against SMU's 81st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is SMU's offense against Syracuse's defense. The biggest edge on the board is SMU's efficiency: 28th in adjusted success rate, against Syracuse's 90th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and SMU's defense falls from 56th to 81st in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.

SMUSyracuse
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.15 (42nd)+0.05 (106th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.29 (21st)+0.14 (101st)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.06 (78th)+0.06 (73rd)
Success rate (adjusted)45.7% (28th)41.8% (62nd)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)49.2% (33rd)47.4% (55th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)33.7% (13th)29.3% (97th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.91 (122nd)0.94 (60th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.87 (98th)2.68 (131st)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.15 (59th)1.09 (82nd)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.13 (81st)+0.11 (71st)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.19 (69th)+0.13 (34th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.08 (83rd)+0.11 (107th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)40.3% (46th)43.0% (90th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.96 (109th)0.97 (126th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.82 (29th)2.84 (34th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.28 (106th)1.32 (114th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, SMU or Syracuse?

SMU is better throwing (5th in EPA per pass) than running (80th). Syracuse's pass defense ranks 18th, so that's strength on strength. Syracuse is better running (63rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (100th). SMU's run defense ranks 89th, so that's an edge.

SMUSyracuse
EPA per play+0.24 (25th)+0.06 (103rd)
EPA per pass+0.49 (5th)+0.11 (100th)
EPA per rush+0.08 (80th)+0.11 (63rd)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.72 (15th)+0.42 (84th)
EPA per play allowed+0.07 (56th)+0.08 (63rd)
EPA per pass allowed+0.08 (37th)+0.02 (18th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.10 (89th)+0.15 (109th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.43 (82nd)+0.27 (31st)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, SMU or Syracuse?

SMU outscores FBS opponents by 15.3 a game, and Syracuse by 5.3. SMU's offense ranks 20th in scoring, and the Syracuse defense it faces ranks 93rd in points allowed. Syracuse's offense ranks 49th against SMU's 46th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is SMU's offense against Syracuse's defense.

SMUSyracuse
Points scored36.4 (20th)31.6 (49th)
Points allowed21.1 (46th)26.3 (93rd)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

SMU's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 21st in SUPLEX, and Syracuse's defense ranks 100th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch. Syracuse has no clear edge here. Its best is SUPLEX, 63rd, against a defense ranked 54th in SUPLEX allowed.

SMUSyracuse
Pass yards / game318.7 (6th)289.3 (17th)
Rush yards / game160.0 (78th)178.3 (55th)
Yards per play7.19 (13th)6.07 (73rd)
Yards per carry4.96 (83rd)4.66 (104th)
Yards per attempt9.62 (8th)7.94 (55th)
Completion %72.4% (18th)63.9% (66th)
Success rate49.6% (18th)44.7% (60th)
Explosive play rate14.4% (27th)12.1% (73rd)
3rd down conversion46.3% (29th)45.1% (38th)
Sack rate (taken)3.3% (24th)5.9% (81st)
INT rate (thrown)2.2% (59th)3.5% (114th)
SUPLEX63.8% (21st)56.9% (63rd)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

SMU's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 12th in sack rate, and Syracuse's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (81st). That's a mismatch.

SMUSyracuse
Pass yards allowed / game183.1 (25th)206.6 (60th)
Rush yards allowed / game134.0 (46th)154.4 (75th)
Yards per play allowed5.27 (33rd)5.70 (67th)
Yards per carry allowed4.81 (73rd)5.41 (105th)
Yards per attempt allowed6.25 (33rd)6.34 (35th)
Success rate allowed36.6% (26th)40.6% (58th)
Explosive plays allowed10.2% (46th)12.2% (90th)
3rd downs allowed27.0% (5th)34.7% (41st)
Sack rate (generated)9.3% (12th)6.2% (68th)
INT rate (generated)1.0% (128th)1.8% (97th)
SUPLEX allowed52.0% (54th)58.4% (100th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

SMU has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where SMU ranks 9th and Syracuse 111th.

SMUSyracuse
Big Uglies: offensive line49.5 (78th)46.4 (100th)
Big Uglies: defensive front60.8 (11th)55.7 (24th)
Line yards per carry2.94 (91st)2.63 (127th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.67 (29th)2.55 (14th)
Second-level yards per carry1.02 (92nd)0.92 (115th)
Open-field yards per carry1.14 (75th)1.03 (89th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)19.6% (94th)17.6% (67th)
Stuff rate (defense)19.8% (56th)26.3% (9th)
Power success (short yardage)71.0% (77th)76.6% (40th)
Power success allowed56.3% (9th)78.3% (111th)
Front-seven havoc allowed8.6% (53rd)8.4% (46th)
Front-seven havoc14.3% (7th)12.3% (18th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: SMU is −0.6 a game and Syracuse −0.3.

SMUSyracuse
Interceptions thrown / game0.71 (61st)1.29 (127th)
Fumbles lost / game0.57 (74th)0.14 (3rd)
Giveaways / game1.29 (72nd)1.43 (88th)
Interceptions / game0.29 (119th)0.57 (85th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.43 (69th)0.57 (51st)
Takeaways / game0.71 (118th)1.14 (67th)
Turnover margin / game-0.6 (108th)-0.3 (89th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

SMU has the more talented roster (31st in the 247Sports talent composite; Syracuse is 35th). SMU also plays further above its talent: +7.0 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Syracuse's −8.0.

SMUSyracuse
Talent composite764.5 (31st)745.6 (35th)
Blue-chip ratio32.0% (23rd)20.9% (39th)
Players on roster107 (94th)110 (75th)
Rated by 247Sports75 (82nd)86 (36th)
5-star players1 (24th)2 (19th)
4-star players23 (29th)16 (41st)
3-star players51 (103rd)67 (45th)
Below 3-star0 (113th)1 (86th)
2026 transfers in17 (103rd)18 (97th)
Transfer share22.7% (94th)20.9% (105th)
SP+ vs. talent+7.0 (30th)-8.0 (116th)
Returning production56.9% (49th)35.0% (81st)
Returning passing production96.6% (27th)83.4% (52nd)
Returning rushing production0.9% (112th)-18.6% (128th)
Returning receiving production37.2% (69th)20.0% (103rd)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)32 (32nd)35 (35th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes60.5 (61st)50.8 (49th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

SMU's roster is valued at $22.4M, Syracuse's at $17.9M. SMU also plays better per dollar: +5.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −5.6 for Syracuse.

SMUSyracuse
Roster value$22.4M (33rd)$17.9M (65th)
Roster cost per win$3.7M (11th)$6.0M (45th)
Projected wins per $1M0.40 (10th)0.23 (50th)
SP+ vs. payroll+5.8 (14th)-5.6 (56th)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

SMU is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+0.8). Syracuse is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.1).

SMUSyracuse
RECEIPTS (total)+2.5 (8th)-0.5 (89th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.7 (56th)-0.2 (93rd)
Roster RECEIPTS+0.7 (28th)+0.6 (33rd)
Coach RECEIPTS+0.8 (35th)-1.1 (112th)
Luck RECEIPTS+0.3 (48th)+0.1 (59th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

SMU at Syracuse: questions people ask

SMU vs. Syracuse prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick SMU, 81% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. SMU's best matchup is its run-stopping front, 29th in line yards allowed per carry, against Syracuse's offensive line at 131st.

Where can I watch SMU vs. Syracuse, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at JMA Wireless Dome. It's on ESPN2.

What's the projected score of SMU vs. Syracuse?

SP+ projects SMU 35–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for SMU at Syracuse?

DraftKings has SMU −10.5, total 58.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the SMU vs. Syracuse series history?

SMU leads 2–0. Last meeting: SMU won 31–18 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in SMU vs. Syracuse?

SMU: Kevin Jennings (2,092 passing yards), Kendrick Raphael (632 rushing yards) and Yamir Knight (394 receiving yards). Syracuse: Steven Angeli (992 passing yards), Tylik Hill (463 rushing yards) and Umari Hatcher (887 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in SMU at Syracuse?

SMU's is Kevin Jennings (2,092 passing yards this season); Syracuse's is Steven Angeli (992 passing yards this season).

Who's out for SMU at Syracuse?

Syracuse: Amari Odom (QB), out; Nelson (QB), out.

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

SMU and Syracuse: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.