This week's picks

Delaware vs. Western Kentucky Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026
Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Delaware at Western Kentucky

Week 9, Tue, Oct 27, 7:00 PM ET, Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium.

The numbers say: Delaware, 49% to win.

The game

KickoffTue, Oct 27, 7:00 PM ET
TVCBSSN
WhereHouchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Weather64°, cloudy, wind 0 mph
LineWestern Kentucky −1.5, total 57.5
Line movementOpened Delaware −2.5; moved 4 points toward Western Kentucky. Total opened 58.5, down 1.
SeriesWestern Kentucky leads 1–0
Last meetingWestern Kentucky 27–24 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Western Kentucky by 2.758%55
PRIMEDelaware by 3.861%
EloDelaware57%
The lineWestern Kentucky −1.5, opened Delaware −2.557.5, opened 58.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Tue, Oct 27, 2:00 PM ET.

Who wins, Delaware or Western Kentucky?

The numbers say: Delaware. 53% chance to win

Which matchups decide Delaware vs. Western Kentucky?

The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Delaware ahead by a hair. Delaware's best matchup is its pass rush, 28th in sack rate, against Western Kentucky's pass protection at 97th. Western Kentucky's way back in is its 3rd down defense, 8th in 3rd downs allowed, against Delaware's 3rd down offense at 131st.

Delaware with the ball

Western Kentucky with the ball

Who's out for Delaware and Western Kentucky?

Delaware

Western Kentucky

How Delaware and Western Kentucky compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Delaware and Western Kentucky are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Delaware's and Western Kentucky's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Delaware and Western Kentucky?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Western Kentucky 0.2 points better (115th to 117th). PRIME has Delaware by 6.3 instead. Elo, which only sees results, has Delaware ahead (93rd to 111th).

DelawareWestern Kentucky
SP+ overall-11.7 (117th)-11.5 (115th)
SP+ offense23.1 (98th)18.8 (115th)
SP+ defense34.4 (125th)30.7 (105th)
SP+ special teams-0.3 (104th)0.4 (11th)
PRIME net-8.8 (104th)-15.1 (126th)
PRIME offense-2.63 (88th)-8.36 (125th)
PRIME defense-6.44 (116th)-5.63 (110th)
PRIME SOS-7.2 (116th)-3.4 (76th)
PRIME SOR-1.4 (109th)-1.7 (112th)
Elo1371 (93rd)1269 (111th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Delaware's offense ranks 102nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Western Kentucky defense it faces ranks 93rd in EPA per play allowed. Western Kentucky's offense ranks 124th against Delaware's 112th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Delaware's run game: 82nd in adjusted EPA per rush, against Western Kentucky's 130th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Delaware's offense falls from 44th to 102nd in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.

DelawareWestern Kentucky
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.06 (102nd)+0.01 (124th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.17 (89th)+0.09 (127th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.05 (82nd)+0.01 (120th)
Success rate (adjusted)38.0% (115th)37.0% (124th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)44.7% (104th)42.7% (127th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)29.4% (95th)29.0% (104th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.92 (108th)0.91 (115th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.89 (92nd)2.80 (117th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.01 (104th)0.98 (116th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.17 (112th)+0.14 (93rd)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.28 (119th)+0.12 (28th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.07 (69th)+0.16 (130th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)45.3% (111th)40.4% (49th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.94 (86th)0.97 (125th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.96 (69th)3.14 (118th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.14 (74th)1.40 (129th)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Delaware or Western Kentucky?

Delaware is better throwing (24th in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). Western Kentucky's pass defense ranks 69th, so that's an edge. Western Kentucky is better running (89th in EPA per rush) than throwing (125th). Delaware's run defense ranks 104th.

DelawareWestern Kentucky
EPA per play+0.19 (44th)+0.02 (118th)
EPA per pass+0.39 (24th)0.00 (125th)
EPA per rush+0.02 (103rd)+0.05 (89th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.28 (110th)+0.31 (107th)
EPA per play allowed+0.14 (94th)+0.15 (98th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.23 (87th)+0.17 (69th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.14 (104th)+0.14 (104th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.41 (74th)+0.27 (31st)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Delaware or Western Kentucky?

Delaware is outscored by 0.1 a game, and Western Kentucky is outscored by 9.3. Delaware's offense ranks 71st in scoring, and the Western Kentucky defense it faces ranks 116th in points allowed. Western Kentucky's offense ranks 112th against Delaware's 107th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Delaware's offense against Western Kentucky's defense.

DelawareWestern Kentucky
Points scored28.3 (71st)21.3 (112th)
Points allowed28.4 (107th)30.6 (116th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Delaware's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 101st in yards per carry, and Western Kentucky's defense ranks 133rd in yards per carry allowed. Western Kentucky's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 17th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Delaware's defense ranks 88th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.

DelawareWestern Kentucky
Pass yards / game269.1 (32nd)223.7 (76th)
Rush yards / game129.9 (114th)148.0 (93rd)
Yards per play5.76 (99th)5.80 (96th)
Yards per carry4.76 (101st)4.48 (115th)
Yards per attempt6.90 (97th)7.71 (65th)
Completion %48.4% (128th)72.4% (18th)
Success rate38.6% (118th)41.0% (93rd)
Explosive play rate11.6% (85th)10.2% (115th)
3rd down conversion30.4% (131st)48.1% (17th)
Sack rate (taken)7.1% (102nd)6.9% (97th)
INT rate (thrown)2.9% (96th)2.0% (52nd)
SUPLEX51.7% (100th)50.0% (106th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Delaware's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 28th in sack rate, and Western Kentucky's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (97th). That's a mismatch. Western Kentucky's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 8th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Delaware's offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (131st). That's a mismatch.

DelawareWestern Kentucky
Pass yards allowed / game275.3 (132nd)194.3 (40th)
Rush yards allowed / game135.7 (51st)193.4 (117th)
Yards per play allowed6.88 (119th)5.73 (69th)
Yards per carry allowed4.92 (77th)6.27 (133rd)
Yards per attempt allowed9.31 (125th)5.46 (8th)
Success rate allowed46.9% (117th)36.5% (24th)
Explosive plays allowed13.9% (113th)10.1% (44th)
3rd downs allowed40.8% (88th)27.6% (8th)
Sack rate (generated)8.0% (28th)3.5% (126th)
INT rate (generated)1.9% (86th)1.6% (104th)
SUPLEX allowed62.0% (120th)52.4% (57th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Western Kentucky has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where Western Kentucky ranks 53rd and Delaware 93rd.

DelawareWestern Kentucky
Big Uglies: offensive line41.7 (123rd)44.2 (114th)
Big Uglies: defensive front49.5 (71st)44.0 (106th)
Line yards per carry2.68 (124th)2.81 (109th)
Line yards allowed per carry3.07 (95th)2.99 (80th)
Second-level yards per carry1.01 (95th)0.96 (108th)
Open-field yards per carry0.77 (117th)0.99 (95th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)24.0% (132nd)19.7% (96th)
Stuff rate (defense)16.9% (93rd)20.0% (53rd)
Power success (short yardage)56.7% (133rd)68.3% (95th)
Power success allowed76.7% (105th)72.2% (80th)
Front-seven havoc allowed9.6% (91st)10.0% (96th)
Front-seven havoc9.8% (63rd)9.0% (84th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Delaware is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Western Kentucky is −0.5. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for Delaware. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Delaware's takeaways lean on them (0.9 of 1.6 a game).

DelawareWestern Kentucky
Interceptions thrown / game1.00 (105th)0.75 (75th)
Fumbles lost / game0.25 (15th)0.63 (89th)
Giveaways / game1.25 (63rd)1.38 (79th)
Interceptions / game0.75 (59th)0.50 (99th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.88 (9th)0.38 (89th)
Takeaways / game1.63 (23rd)0.88 (104th)
Turnover margin / game+0.4 (41st)-0.5 (103rd)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Western Kentucky has the more talented roster (87th in the 247Sports talent composite; Delaware is 134th). But Delaware plays further above its talent: −0.5 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Western Kentucky's −8.3.

DelawareWestern Kentucky
Talent composite483.5 (134th)611.5 (87th)
Blue-chip ratio0.0% (126th)2.8% (114th)
Players on roster106 (99th)106 (99th)
Rated by 247Sports44 (135th)71 (93rd)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players0 (126th)2 (106th)
3-star players43 (116th)68 (37th)
Below 3-star1 (86th)1 (86th)
2026 transfers in13 (120th)23 (56th)
Transfer share29.5% (66th)32.4% (55th)
SP+ vs. talent-0.5 (67th)-8.3 (117th)
Returning production84.9% (9th)83.7% (10th)
Returning passing production96.3% (28th)95.1% (29th)
Returning rushing production87.7% (30th)54.7% (62nd)
Returning receiving production77.1% (14th)84.8% (8th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)115 (115th)81 (81st)
Recruiting rank, last four classes135.7 (132nd)105.5 (112th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Delaware is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.2). Western Kentucky is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.0).

DelawareWestern Kentucky
RECEIPTS (total)-0.5 (89th)-0.5 (89th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+1.2 (35th)+0.7 (61st)
Roster RECEIPTS-1.2 (129th)-0.1 (76th)
Coach RECEIPTS-0.4 (88th)-1.0 (111th)
Luck RECEIPTS-0.1 (75th)-0.0 (70th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Delaware at Western Kentucky: questions people ask

Delaware vs. Western Kentucky prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Delaware, 53% chance to win. PRIME and Elo agree; SP+ has Western Kentucky. Delaware's best matchup is its pass rush, 28th in sack rate, against Western Kentucky's pass protection at 97th.

Where can I watch Delaware vs. Western Kentucky, and what time is it?

Tue, Oct 27, 7:00 PM ET at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium. It's on CBSSN.

What's the projected score of Delaware vs. Western Kentucky?

SP+ projects Western Kentucky 29–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Delaware at Western Kentucky?

DraftKings has Western Kentucky −1.5, total 57.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Delaware vs. Western Kentucky series history?

Western Kentucky leads 1–0. Last meeting: Western Kentucky won 27–24 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Delaware vs. Western Kentucky?

Delaware: Nick Minicucci (1,467 passing yards), Jo'Nathan Silver (357 rushing yards) and Sean Wilson (591 receiving yards). Western Kentucky: Rodney Tisdale Jr. (907 passing yards), Ajay Allen (403 rushing yards) and Jonathan Stafford Jr. (455 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Delaware at Western Kentucky?

Delaware's is Nick Minicucci (1,467 passing yards this season); Western Kentucky's is Rodney Tisdale Jr. (907 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Delaware and Western Kentucky: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.