The Keg of Nails
vs.
Cincinnati vs. Louisville. First played in 1929; the results here start in 1966.
Louisville leads 23–22–1 in the Keg of Nails through 2022. Louisville won the last meeting, 24–7, in 2022.
Who's won the Keg of Nails lately?
- 2005Louisville46–22
- 2006Louisville23–17
- 2007Louisville28–24
- 2008Cincinnati28–20
- 2009Cincinnati41–10
- 2010Cincinnati35–27
- 2011Cincinnati25–16
- 2012Louisville34–31
- 2013Louisville31–24
- 2022Louisville24–7
Louisville has won 3 straight, since 2012. Over the last 10 meetings, Louisville is 6–4.
What's the Keg of Nails trophy?
Keg of Nails: a replica of a keg used to ship nails, with both schools' logos and the scores of past games; the winners are supposed to be "tough as nails."
How did the Keg of Nails start?
Cincinnati beat Louisville 7-0 at Parkway Field on October 2, 1929. Fraternity chapters at the two schools are believed to have started the keg exchange, though nobody knows for sure who introduced it. The schools were conference rivals in the Missouri Valley, Conference USA and the Big East, and played every year from 1966 to 2013 apart from a 1992-1996 break. The series stopped when Louisville joined the ACC in 2014, and the keg came back out when the teams met in the 2022 Fenway Bowl, which Louisville won 24-7.
What are the most famous Keg of Nails games?
- 1997: Two punt returnsTinker Keck returned two punts for touchdowns in a 28-9 Cincinnati win.Final: Cincinnati 28–9
- 2013: Bridgewater in overtimeTeddy Bridgewater led Louisville to a 31-24 overtime win in the last regular-season meeting.Final: Louisville 31–24
- 2022: Fenway BowlLouisville won 24-7 and took the keg back.Final: Louisville 24–7
How has the Keg of Nails series swung?
Each bar is one meeting. Bars above the line are Cincinnati wins and bars below it are Louisville wins; the taller the bar, the bigger the margin (bars stop at 56 points). Over the last 10 meetings Louisville is 6–4. Cincinnati swept the 1960s, 4–0. The widest margins are Cincinnati 41–10 in 2009 and Louisville 70–7 in 2004.
How do Cincinnati and Louisville compare this season?
Louisville is the better team this season by SP+ (25th to 49th), and it's ahead on 8 of these 10 stats. Each row is one stat: the dots are each team's national rank out of 138, printed by the dot, and further left is better.
| National rank | Cincinnati | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 49th | 25th |
| SP+ offense | 21st | 6th |
| SP+ defense | 78th | 62nd |
| Success rate | 47th | 28th |
| Success rate allowed | 109th | 89th |
| Explosive play rate | 35th | 2nd |
| Big Uglies: offensive line | 46th | 131st |
| Big Uglies: defensive front | 87th | 86th |
| Takeaways a game | 41st | 30th |
| Giveaways a game | 7th | 29th |
What are the records in the Keg of Nails?
- Biggest Cincinnati win
- 2009, 41–10
- Biggest Louisville win
- 2004, 70–7
- Longest streaks
- Cincinnati, 4 straight (1966–1969); Louisville, 5 straight (2003–2007)
- Most points
- Louisville, 70 in 2004
- Ties
- 1
Who has the most yards in the Keg of Nails?
| Best single game | Most in the series | |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville), 416 passing yards in 2012, with 2 TDs | Brian Brohm (Louisville), 1,032 passing yards in 4 games (2004–2007) |
| Rushing | Bilal Powell (Louisville), 209 rushing yards in 2010, with 2 TDs | Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati), 384 rushing yards in 3 games (2009–2011) |
| Receiving | Armon Binns (Cincinnati), 175 receiving yards in 2010, with 3 TDs | Dominick Goodman (Cincinnati), 299 receiving yards in 3 games (2006–2008) |
From the box scores of the 11 meetings since 2004 on CollegeFootballData.com. Older games don't have player stats.
Keg of Nails results: every game since 1966
| Year | Winner | Score | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Louisville | 24–7 | Neutral |
| 2013 | Louisville | 31–24 | Cincinnati |
| 2012 | Louisville | 34–31 | Louisville |
| 2011 | Cincinnati | 25–16 | Cincinnati |
| 2010 | Cincinnati | 35–27 | Louisville |
| 2009 | Cincinnati | 41–10 | Cincinnati |
| 2008 | Cincinnati | 28–20 | Louisville |
| 2007 | Louisville | 28–24 | Cincinnati |
| 2006 | Louisville | 23–17 | Louisville |
| 2005 | Louisville | 46–22 | Cincinnati |
| 2004 | Louisville | 70–7 | Louisville |
| 2003 | Louisville | 43–40 | Cincinnati |
| 2002 | Cincinnati | 24–14 | Louisville |
| 2001 | Louisville | 28–13 | Cincinnati |
| 2000 | Louisville | 38–24 | Louisville |
| 1999 | Louisville | 23–13 | Cincinnati |
| 1998 | Louisville | 62–19 | Louisville |
| 1997 | Cincinnati | 28–9 | Cincinnati |
| 1996 | Cincinnati | 10–7 | Louisville |
| 1992 | Louisville | 27–17 | Cincinnati |
| 1991 | Cincinnati | 30–7 | Louisville |
| 1990 | Louisville | 41–16 | Cincinnati |
| 1989 | Louisville | 37–17 | Louisville |
| 1988 | Louisville | 21–6 | Cincinnati |
| 1987 | Cincinnati | 25–0 | Louisville |
| 1986 | Cincinnati | 24–17 | Cincinnati |
| 1985 | Cincinnati | 31–9 | Louisville |
| 1984 | Cincinnati | 40–21 | Cincinnati |
| 1983 | Louisville | 31–23 | Louisville |
| 1982 | Cincinnati | 38–16 | Cincinnati |
| 1981 | Cincinnati | 24–0 | Cincinnati |
| 1980 | Louisville | 20–0 | Louisville |
| 1979 | Louisville | 22–19 | Louisville |
| 1978 | Louisville | 28–14 | Cincinnati |
| 1977 | Tie | 17–17 | Cincinnati |
| 1976 | Cincinnati | 20–6 | Cincinnati |
| 1975 | Cincinnati | 46–27 | Louisville |
| 1974 | Cincinnati | 7–6 | Cincinnati |
| 1973 | Louisville | 10–8 | Louisville |
| 1972 | Louisville | 38–13 | Cincinnati |
| 1971 | Cincinnati | 19–16 | Louisville |
| 1970 | Louisville | 28–14 | Cincinnati |
| 1969 | Cincinnati | 31–21 | Louisville |
| 1968 | Cincinnati | 37–7 | Cincinnati |
| 1967 | Cincinnati | 13–7 | Louisville |
| 1966 | Cincinnati | 17–3 | Cincinnati |
Results from CollegeFootballData.com. The schools' official series records can differ by a game or two (vacated wins, disputed early games).
Questions about the Keg of Nails
Who leads the Keg of Nails series?
Louisville leads 23–22–1 through the 2022 game, with 1 tie, in the 46 meetings on record since 1966.
Who won the last Keg of Nails?
Louisville beat Cincinnati 24–7 on Dec 17, 2022 at Fenway Park.
When was the first Keg of Nails?
1929, by the schools' count. Our game-by-game results start in 1966.
What's the trophy for the Keg of Nails?
Keg of Nails: a replica of a keg used to ship nails, with both schools' logos and the scores of past games; the winners are supposed to be "tough as nails."
What's the biggest win in the Keg of Nails?
Louisville won by 63 in 2004, 70–7. Cincinnati won by 31 in 2009, 41–10.
What's the longest winning streak in the Keg of Nails?
Louisville won 5 straight from 2003 to 2007. Cincinnati won 4 straight from 1966 to 1969.
Who has won the Keg of Nails lately?
Louisville has won 3 straight, since 2012. Over the last 10 meetings, Louisville is 6–4.
Who has the most passing yards in a Keg of Nails game?
Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville), 416 passing yards in 2012, with 2 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Brian Brohm (Louisville), 1,032 passing yards in 4 games (2004–2007).
Who has the most rushing yards in a Keg of Nails game?
Bilal Powell (Louisville), 209 rushing yards in 2010, with 2 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati), 384 rushing yards in 3 games (2009–2011).
Who has the most receiving yards in a Keg of Nails game?
Armon Binns (Cincinnati), 175 receiving yards in 2010, with 3 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Dominick Goodman (Cincinnati), 299 receiving yards in 3 games (2006–2008).
What is the Keg of Nails?
The Keg of Nails is the Cincinnati–Louisville rivalry, first played in 1929. Louisville leads 23–22–1 through 2022, and the winner takes home the Keg of Nails.
What happened in the 1997 Keg of Nails?
Two punt returns: Tinker Keck returned two punts for touchdowns in a 28-9 Cincinnati win. Final: Cincinnati 28–9.
What happened in the 2013 Keg of Nails?
Bridgewater in overtime: Teddy Bridgewater led Louisville to a 31-24 overtime win in the last regular-season meeting. Final: Louisville 31–24.
What happened in the 2022 Keg of Nails?
Fenway Bowl: Louisville won 24-7 and took the keg back. Final: Louisville 24–7.
Where can I watch Cincinnati vs. Louisville, and what time is it?
Cincinnati and Louisville don't play each other in 2026. The last meeting was in 2022, a 24–7 Louisville win.
When is the next Keg of Nails?
Cincinnati and Louisville don't play each other in 2026. The last meeting was in 2022, a 24–7 Louisville win.
Who has the Keg of Nails?
Louisville has it. Louisville won the 2022 game, 24–7, its 3rd straight.
What was the score of the last Cincinnati vs. Louisville game?
Louisville won 24–7 on Dec 17, 2022.
What's the Cincinnati vs. Louisville record in the last 10 years?
Louisville is 1–0 in the 1 meetings since 2016.
Cincinnati vs. Louisville player stats: who starred in the 2022 game?
For Louisville, Brock Domann threw for 132 yards and 1 TD; Maurice Turner ran for 160 yards; Jaelin Carter had 50 receiving yards. For Cincinnati, Evan Prater threw for 83 yards and 1 TD; Ethan Wright ran for 43 yards; L'Christian Smith had 32 receiving yards.
Who won the 2022 Keg of Nails?
Louisville beat Cincinnati 24–7 on Dec 17, 2022 at Fenway Park.
Who won the 2013 Keg of Nails?
Louisville beat Cincinnati 31–24 on Dec 6, 2013 at Nippert Stadium.
Who won the 2012 Keg of Nails?
Louisville beat Cincinnati 34–31 on Oct 27, 2012 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Who won the 2011 Keg of Nails?
Cincinnati beat Louisville 25–16 on Oct 15, 2011.
Who won the 2010 Keg of Nails?
Cincinnati beat Louisville 35–27 on Oct 16, 2010 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
When was the last time Cincinnati won the Keg of Nails?
2011, 25–16. Louisville has won all 3 meetings since.
When was the last time Louisville won the Keg of Nails?
2022, 24–7, the most recent meeting.
Related
- Cincinnati's 2026 team page
- Louisville's 2026 team page
- Victory Bell: Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH)
- Governor's Cup: Kentucky vs. Louisville
- Every named rivalry
History and trophy sources: en.wikipedia.org.
College football, 2026 season
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
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| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
Ratings and advanced stats
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
- Strength of record
- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
- Sack rate
- Sacks divided by dropbacks. For an offense, lower is better. For a pass rush, higher is better.
- Turnover margin
- Takeaways (interceptions and fumbles recovered) minus giveaways (interceptions thrown and fumbles lost).
- RECEIPTS
- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
- Expected wins
- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
How we pick
How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
- Game of the week
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- Monday's look back: every final score against what we projected, what we got right and what we got wrong.
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Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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- Automatic bid
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- At-large
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- First-round bye
- Seeds 1 through 4 skip the first round. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games at the higher seed's stadium.
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College Football Charts is a college football stats site: a pick for every FBS game, head to heads across 75+ stats, the playoff picture, and charts you can bend to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
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Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
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Week by week
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
Over time
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Rank
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.