Michigan State football stats, 2026
2–6 (0–5 Big Ten). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.
Michigan State football rankings: how good is Michigan State?
SP+ (88th) and Elo (80th) see a middle-of-the-pack team. PRIME has it 55th. PRIME grades each possession, so it's higher on how Michigan State's drives have gone than the others. Michigan State has played one of the hardest schedules so far (7th in PRIME).
What is Michigan State good at, and what is it bad at?
Good at
- Nothing ranks that high.
Bad at
- Michigan State doesn't hit big plays: 8.1% of its plays are explosive (runs of 12+ yards, passes of 16+), 130th of 134.
- Michigan State doesn't force turnovers: 0.6 takeaways a game, 123rd of 138.
- Michigan State can't get off the field on 3rd down: opponents convert 45.8% of their 3rd downs, 118th of 138.
Good at means top 25 in FBS; bad at means 91st or worse. Turnovers swing a lot from week to week.
Michigan State football schedule, 2026
Next: at Michigan, Sat, Nov 7, time TBA.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result or kickoff (ET), TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fri, Sep 4 | vs. Toledo | W 30–20 |
| 2 | Sat, Sep 12 | vs. Eastern Michigan | W 35–7 |
| 3 | Sat, Sep 19 | at Notre Dame | L 10–27 |
| 4 | Sat, Sep 26 | vs. Nebraska | L 13–31 |
| 5 | Sat, Oct 3 | at Wisconsin | L 3–31 |
| 6 | Sat, Oct 10 | vs. Illinois | L 37–38 |
| 7 | Sat, Oct 17 | vs. Northwestern | L 21–24 |
| 8 | Sat, Oct 24 | at UCLA | L 10–28 |
| 10 | Sat, Nov 7 | at Michigan | TBA |
| 11 | Sat, Nov 14 | vs. Washington | TBA |
| 12 | Fri, Nov 20 | vs. Oregon | 8:00 PM ET, Fox, FOX |
| 13 | Sat, Nov 28 | at Rutgers | TBA |
Kickoff times are Eastern. TV from CollegeFootballData.com; networks are set a week or two ahead.
Michigan State's 2026 record: the wins and losses
- Best win
- vs. Toledo (6–2, SP+ 64th), 30–20, Week 1
- Worst loss
- vs. Illinois (4–3, SP+ 48th), 37–38, Week 6
- Biggest win
- vs. Eastern Michigan (4–5, SP+ 123rd), 35–7, Week 2
Wins (2)
- vs. Toledo 6–2, SP+ 64th 30–20
- vs. Eastern Michigan 4–5, SP+ 123rd 35–7
Losses (6)
- at Notre Dame 6–1, SP+ 4th, AP No. 5 10–27
- vs. Nebraska 5–2, SP+ 15th 13–31
- at UCLA 7–0, SP+ 17th, AP No. 7 10–28
- vs. Northwestern 6–1, SP+ 20th, AP No. 20 21–24
- at Wisconsin 5–2, SP+ 40th, AP No. 25 3–31
- vs. Illinois 4–3, SP+ 48th 37–38
| Record | |
|---|---|
| Against the AP Top 25 | 0–4 |
| Against the SP+ top 25 | 0–4 |
| Against the SP+ top 50 | 0–6 |
| Against Power 4 teams and Notre Dame | 0–6 |
| Against teams with winning records | 1–6 |
| In one-score games (8 points or fewer) | 0–2 |
| At home | 2–3 |
| Away | 0–3 |
Opponents are judged by where they stand now: their record, their SP+ rank out of 138 and the latest AP poll. Wins and losses are listed best opponent first. Strength of record and schedule are PRIME's, on its points scale, where higher is better.
How many championships has Michigan State won?
Michigan State claims 6 national championships: 1951, 1952, 1955, 1957, 1965 and 1966.
Michigan State has won 12 conference championships, most recently the Big Ten in 2015.
- Big Ten
- 9: 1953, 1965, 1966, 1978, 1987, 1990, 2010, 2013, 2015
- MIAA
- 3: 1903, 1905, 1907
Through the 2025 season. National titles are the ones the school claims; conference titles include shared ones. From each program's records as collected on Wikipedia.
Michigan State offense: stats and national ranks
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.9 | 125th |
| Yards per play | 4.84 | 131st |
| Success rate | 40.8% | 96th |
| Explosive play rate | 8.1% | 130th |
| Yards per carry | 4.10 | 127th |
| Yards per pass attempt | 6.07 | 120th |
| Sack rate allowed | 8.6% | 116th |
| 3rd down conversion | 35.9% | 97th |
Michigan State defense: stats and national ranks
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points allowed | 25.8 | 88th |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.05 | 86th |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% | 111th |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5% | 78th |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.70 | 62nd |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.35 | 105th |
| Sack rate | 5.9% | 75th |
| 3rd downs allowed | 45.8% | 118th |
How good is Michigan State's offensive line?
Big Uglies, our offensive line rating, has Michigan State at 47.2, 95th of 138 (50 is average). It's 66th in adjusted line yards per carry (2.96), gets stuffed on 17.7% of runs (68th fewest) and converts 70.3% of short-yardage runs (85th).
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Big Uglies: offensive line | 47.2 | 95th |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.96 | 66th |
| Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line) | 17.7% | 68th |
| Power success (short yardage) | 70.3% | 85th |
| Sack rate allowed | 8.6% | 116th |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 0.87 | 133rd |
How good is Michigan State's defensive line?
Big Uglies has Michigan State's defensive front at 49.7, 70th of 138. It gives up 2.93 adjusted line yards per carry (60th), stuffs 20.6% of runs (43rd) and gets a sack on 5.9% of dropbacks (75th).
| Stat | Value | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Big Uglies: defensive front | 49.7 | 70th |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.93 | 60th |
| Stuff rate (defense) | 20.6% | 43rd |
| Power success allowed | 70.7% | 67th |
| Sack rate | 5.9% | 75th |
| Front-seven havoc | 8.2% | 107th |
Are Michigan State's backs actually good, or is it all the offensive line?
Michigan State's line is 66th of 138 in adjusted line yards per carry (2.96), the part of each run it earns. Its backs are 133rd in adjusted open-field yards (0.87), the part they earn past 10 yards. It's mostly the line: the backs aren't adding much once they're past it.
Michigan State football players: the stat leaders
Alessio Milivojevic (QB), Anelu Lafaele (EDGE), Ben Roberts (DL), Camryn Edwards (RB), Charles Brantley (CB), Chrishon Mccray (WR), Devin Vaught (S), Eli Coenen (DL), Fredrick Moore (WR), Isaac Smith (EDGE), Jayden Savoury (TE), Jaziun Patterson (RB), Kenneth Williams (RB), Kenny Soares Jr. (EDGE), Marvis Parrish (RB), Nikai Martinez (DB), Rodney Bullard Jr. (WR), Tre Bell (CB).
Michigan State football results, 2026
| Week | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Toledo | W 30–20 |
| 2 | vs. Eastern Michigan | W 35–7 |
| 3 | at Notre Dame | L 10–27 |
| 4 | vs. Nebraska | L 13–31 |
| 5 | at Wisconsin | L 3–31 |
| 6 | vs. Illinois | L 37–38 |
| 7 | vs. Northwestern | L 21–24 |
| 8 | at UCLA | L 10–28 |
Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Michigan State with any team.
Questions about Michigan State
What is Michigan State's record?
Michigan State is 2–6, 0–5 in the Big Ten, with games through Oct 24, 2026.
Is Michigan State good this year?
Michigan State is 88th of 138 in SP+, Bill Connelly's rating (middle of the pack), 55th in PRIME and 80th in Elo. They aren't in the AP Top 25.
What is Michigan State's best win?
Toledo, 30–20 in Week 1. Toledo is 6–2 and 64th in SP+.
What is Michigan State's 2026 football schedule?
Week 1: vs. Toledo (W 30–20); Week 2: vs. Eastern Michigan (W 35–7); Week 3: at Notre Dame (L 10–27); Week 4: vs. Nebraska (L 13–31); Week 5: at Wisconsin (L 3–31); Week 6: vs. Illinois (L 37–38); Week 7: vs. Northwestern (L 21–24); Week 8: at UCLA (L 10–28); Week 10: at Michigan; Week 11: vs. Washington; Week 12: vs. Oregon; Week 13: at Rutgers.
When does Michigan State play next, and what channel is it on?
At Michigan, Sat, Nov 7, time TBA, at Michigan Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What was the score of Michigan State's last game?
Michigan State lost to UCLA 28–10 on Sat, Oct 24 on the road.
Who is Michigan State's quarterback?
Alessio Milivojevic has thrown the most for Michigan State this season: 1,269 passing yards through Oct 24, 2026.
Where does Michigan State play its home games?
Spartan Stadium.
Where is Michigan State ranked?
Unranked in the latest AP poll. 88th of 138 in SP+, 55th in PRIME and 80th in Elo.
How many national championships has Michigan State won?
Michigan State claims 6 national championships: 1951, 1952, 1955, 1957, 1965 and 1966.
How many conference championships has Michigan State won?
Michigan State has won 12 conference championships, most recently the Big Ten in 2015. Michigan State has 9 Big Ten titles.
How good is Michigan State?
SP+ (88th) and Elo (80th) see a middle-of-the-pack team. PRIME has it 55th. PRIME grades each possession, so it's higher on how Michigan State's drives have gone than the others. Michigan State has played one of the hardest schedules so far (7th in PRIME).
What is Michigan State bad at?
Michigan State doesn't hit big plays: 8.1% of its plays are explosive (runs of 12+ yards, passes of 16+), 130th of 134. Michigan State doesn't force turnovers: 0.6 takeaways a game, 123rd of 138. Michigan State can't get off the field on 3rd down: opponents convert 45.8% of their 3rd downs, 118th of 138.
How much has Michigan State spent on its roster?
The NIL Standard's preseason estimate puts Michigan State's roster at $24.6 million, 25th of the 70 FBS rosters it values and 8th of 18 in the Big Ten, where the average is $26.1 million. That's $12.3 million per win so far (2 wins). Its 2026 transfer class is 29 players, 0 of them four- or five-stars, per 247Sports.
How good is Michigan State's offensive line?
Big Uglies, our offensive line rating, has Michigan State at 47.2, 95th of 138 (50 is average). It's 66th in adjusted line yards per carry (2.96), gets stuffed on 17.7% of runs (68th fewest) and converts 70.3% of short-yardage runs (85th).
How good is Michigan State's defensive line?
Big Uglies has Michigan State's defensive front at 49.7, 70th of 138. It gives up 2.93 adjusted line yards per carry (60th), stuffs 20.6% of runs (43rd) and gets a sack on 5.9% of dropbacks (75th).
Are Michigan State's backs actually good, or is it all the offensive line?
Michigan State's line is 66th of 138 in adjusted line yards per carry (2.96), the part of each run it earns. Its backs are 133rd in adjusted open-field yards (0.87), the part they earn past 10 yards. It's mostly the line: the backs aren't adding much once they're past it.
Who is Michigan State's head coach?
Pat Fitzgerald, in his first season.
College football, 2026 season
Nerd shit for
ball knowers.
Stats and data viz for all 138 FBS teams and 3,000+ players. Find out who's good, who's lucky and who's paying for it. Then use box scores, advanced stats and anything else we could get our hands on to build charts that support your takes.
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Our Top 25 after last week, and where we split from the AP and Coaches polls.
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The 12-team field if the season ended today.
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2026
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About
Sources and methods
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Glossary
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
Ratings and advanced stats
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
- Strength of record
- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
- Sack rate
- Sacks divided by dropbacks. For an offense, lower is better. For a pass rush, higher is better.
- Turnover margin
- Takeaways (interceptions and fumbles recovered) minus giveaways (interceptions thrown and fumbles lost).
- RECEIPTS
- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
- Expected wins
- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
How we pick
How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
- Game of the week
- The one game to watch on Saturday: the best matchup on the board, by how good both teams are and how close the projection is.
- CFB Charts Top 25
- SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each put on the same scale and averaged. Nobody votes.
- Retro
- Monday's look back: every final score against what we projected, what we got right and what we got wrong.
Conferences and the playoff
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
- FBS and FCS
- FBS is the top level of college football: the 138 teams on this site. FCS is the level below. When an FBS team plays an FCS team, it's usually a paid tune-up.
- Power 4
- The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Notre Dame isn't in a conference, but we count it with the Power 4 wherever that matters.
- Group of 6
- Everyone else in FBS: the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt, plus the independents other than Notre Dame. The highest-ranked team from those six conferences gets an automatic playoff bid.
- Automatic bid
- A guaranteed playoff spot. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get one, and so does the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt.
- At-large
- A playoff spot earned by ranking high enough without an automatic bid. Notre Dame is in if it's in the top 12.
- First-round bye
- Seeds 1 through 4 skip the first round. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games at the higher seed's stadium.
Nothing matches that. Try a shorter word.
For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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About College Football Charts
College Football Charts is a college football stats site: a pick for every FBS game, head to heads across 75+ stats, the playoff picture, and charts you can bend to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
What's here
Every FBS team, player and game gets its own page, with national ranks, the ratings people argue about (SP+, PRIME and Elo) and charts you can share. The rivalry pages carry the series history. The tools let you build your own Top 25, your own 12-team playoff field and your own charts.
Who makes the picks
The numbers. Every pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor, and nobody overrides them. When they miss, the retro says so and by how much.
Where the numbers come from
We don't make the ratings; we put them side by side. SP+ is Bill Connelly's. SUPLEX is Nate Tice's. The play-by-play comes from CollegeFootballData.com and cfbfastR. The full list, and how we turn it into picks, is on Sources and methods.
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Betting advice. The line shows up because it's part of the story of a game, not because we want you to bet it.
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- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
- Notre Dame is in if you rank it in your top 12. Everyone else is at-large.
- Seeds go straight by your order. Seeds 1 to 4 get first-round byes; 5 to 12 play first-round games at the higher seed.
- The builder won't let you remove a Power 4 champion or your last team from outside the Power 4.
Drag a team by its handle (⋮⋮) to reseed it; with a keyboard, focus the handle and use the up and down arrow keys. Pick a different team from a row's menu to swap it in. Your field is saved in this browser.
Your 12 seeds
Your bracket
What's in it
- Thursday: the picks. The week's best games, the upset we like, projected scores for the big ones, and charts worth arguing about.
- Monday: the retro. How the picks did, the record so far, what we got wrong and why.
- Every issue, on the site. Past issues will live here, so you can link anyone to them.
The first issue is coming soon.
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Beating the trend
Trailing the trend
Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
This week
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Last week
All-time picks record
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The numbers' and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Week by week
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
Over time
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Rank
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Compare
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SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.