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Blue-Chip Ratio: College Football Talent vs. Results, 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026

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The blue-chip threshold

SP+ overall (up) against Blue-chip ratio (across). 138 teams.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. The green line marks 50% blue-chip; dashed lines are the averages. There's no trend line or gray band here, because the question is which side of 50% a team is on. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

What share of each roster was a 4- or 5-star recruit, against SP+. Every recent national champion has been above 50%, marked by the green line. Most Group of Five rosters sit near 0% by design, so a team isn't failing just for being far below the line; the useful questions are who wins without blue-chips and who has them without winning.

There is a moderate relationship here (r = +0.67; r runs from −1 to +1, and positive means the two go together): teams better on Blue-chip ratio tend to be better on SP+ overall. Blue-chip ratio accounts for about 45% of the differences in SP+ overall across the 138 teams shown.

15 teams are at or above 50% blue-chip, with an average SP+ overall of 18.1. The other 123 average -1.6. 7 of the top 10 teams by SP+ overall are above the line.

Best teams under 50% blue-chip: Indiana (20%, 24.2), Texas Tech (29%, 18.4), Utah (11%, 18.0). Weakest teams over 50% blue-chip: Texas A&M (75%, 9.7), Oklahoma (53%, 10.3), Florida (60%, 10.6).

SEC: 9 of 16 teams at or above 50% blue-chip. Average SP+ overall: 12.7. Best team under 50%: Tennessee (48% blue-chip, SP+ overall 17.9).

Big 12: 0 of 16 teams at or above 50% blue-chip. Average SP+ overall: 8.2. Best team under 50%: Texas Tech (29% blue-chip, SP+ overall 18.4).

Where the data comes from. SP+ overall: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026. Blue-chip ratio: 247Sports, preseason.

Best teams under 50% blue-chip

  1. Indiana 20% blue-chip, SP+ overall 24.2
  2. Texas Tech 29% blue-chip, SP+ overall 18.4
  3. Utah 11% blue-chip, SP+ overall 18.0
  4. Tennessee 48% blue-chip, SP+ overall 17.9
  5. BYU 14% blue-chip, SP+ overall 16.7
  6. Arizona 15% blue-chip, SP+ overall 16.0

Weakest teams over 50% blue-chip

  1. Texas A&M 75% blue-chip, SP+ overall 9.7
  2. Oklahoma 53% blue-chip, SP+ overall 10.3
  3. Florida 60% blue-chip, SP+ overall 10.6
  4. South Carolina 53% blue-chip, SP+ overall 11.0
  5. Michigan 52% blue-chip, SP+ overall 11.5
  6. USC 54% blue-chip, SP+ overall 14.2

About the stats on this chart

What is blue-chip ratio?

Share of the players 247Sports rates who were 4- or 5-star recruits (walk-ons and unrated players aren't counted). Every recent national champion has been above 50%.

Why does blue-chip ratio matter?

Blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that was a 4- or 5-star recruit. Every recent national champion has been over 50%.

Where does the blue-chip ratio data come from?

From 247Sports, preseason.

What is SP+ overall?

Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. Higher is better.

Why does SP+ overall matter?

It's the best single number for how good a team is right now, schedule and all. If you only look at one rating, look at this one.

Where does the SP+ overall data come from?

From SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026.