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Results vs. efficiency: 2026 College Football Chart

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026

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Results vs. efficiency

Elo (up) against SP+ overall (across). 138 teams.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. Dashed lines are the averages of the teams shown; the solid line is the trend, what a team usually gets on the up axis for its spot across. The gray band is a normal miss: everything within 79 Elo points of the line, the size of a typical team's miss. Teams inside the band are doing about what the line expects; teams outside it are the real over- and underperformers. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

Elo uses only final scores and carries over from season to season, so it moves slowly and still reflects last year a little. SP+ is built from every play this season. The line is the Elo a team usually has for its SP+. Above it, a team is winning more, or has a longer track record of winning, than its play this season suggests. Below it, a team is playing better than its results show.

There is a strong relationship here (r = +0.95; r runs from −1 to +1, and positive means the two go together): teams better on SP+ overall tend to be better on Elo. SP+ overall accounts for about 90% of the differences in Elo across the 138 teams shown.

95 of 138 teams (69%) land inside the gray band, within 79 Elo points of the line: they're doing about what you'd expect. 21 are clearly above it and 22 clearly below; those are the real over- and underperformers.

Results ahead of their play: Washington State (+204 Elo points), North Texas (+199 Elo points), Tulane (+164 Elo points). Play ahead of their results: Oklahoma State (−264 Elo points), Florida Atlantic (−183 Elo points), Colorado State (−154 Elo points).

SEC: 2 clearly above the line, 14 inside the gray band, 0 clearly below (average +18 Elo points). Best: Ole Miss (+152 Elo points). Worst: Kentucky (−58 Elo points).

Big 12: 1 clearly above the line, 8 inside the gray band, 7 clearly below (average −59 Elo points). Best: Iowa State (+87 Elo points). Worst: Oklahoma State (−264 Elo points).

Where the data comes from. Elo: Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Oct 24, 2026. SP+ overall: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026.

Results ahead of their play

  1. Washington State +204 Elo points vs. trend
  2. North Texas +199 Elo points vs. trend
  3. Tulane +164 Elo points vs. trend
  4. Ole Miss +152 Elo points vs. trend
  5. Liberty +138 Elo points vs. trend
  6. Penn State +133 Elo points vs. trend

Play ahead of their results

  1. Oklahoma State −264 Elo points vs. trend
  2. Florida Atlantic −183 Elo points vs. trend
  3. Colorado State −154 Elo points vs. trend
  4. Akron −154 Elo points vs. trend
  5. Maryland −153 Elo points vs. trend
  6. Massachusetts −151 Elo points vs. trend

About the stats on this chart

What is SP+ overall?

Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. Higher is better.

Why does SP+ overall matter?

It's the best single number for how good a team is right now, schedule and all. If you only look at one rating, look at this one.

Where does the SP+ overall data come from?

From SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026.

What is Elo?

A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.

Why does Elo matter?

Elo only cares who won and by how much, so it's the scoreboard's opinion. It's slow to change its mind, which is a feature and a bug.

Where does the Elo data come from?

From Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Oct 24, 2026.