This week's picks

Returning production vs. results: 2026 College Football Chart

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026

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Returning production vs. results

SP+ overall (up) against Returning production (across). 136 teams with data.

Up and right are always better: metrics where lower is better (like ranks or points allowed) run in reverse. Dashed lines are the averages of the teams shown and split the chart into four groups. There's no trend line or gray band here: the chart compares two separate skills, so no spot is "expected." The lists rank teams on both skills together. Tap or click a team to open it in Head to head.

What this shows

Right brought back more of last season's production; up is better this season. Up and left rebuilt on the fly.

There is almost no relationship here (r = +0.09): knowing a team's Returning production tells you little about its SP+ overall.

Split by the averages: Veteran and good 33, Rebuilt and good 32, Experienced and struggling 29, Young and struggling 42.

Veteran and good: Ohio State (27th and 1st), Georgia (25th and 2nd), Northwestern (8th and 20th). Young and struggling: Massachusetts (136th and 112th), UTEP (134th and 133rd), Bowling Green (135th and 129th). Ranks are among the 136 teams shown, Returning production first, then SP+ overall.

Pac-12: 3 of 8 in Veteran and good, 1 in Young and struggling. Top of the list: Boise State (30th and 29th of 136).

Mountain West: 1 of 9 in Veteran and good, 5 in Young and struggling. Top of the list: New Mexico (44th and 36th of 136).

Where the data comes from. SP+ overall: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026. Returning production: CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason.

Veteran and good

  1. Ohio State 27th and 1st of 136
  2. Georgia 25th and 2nd of 136
  3. Northwestern 8th and 20th of 136
  4. Texas 20th and 8th of 136
  5. BYU 15th and 13th of 136
  6. Oregon 17th and 12th of 136

Young and struggling

  1. Massachusetts 136th and 112th of 136
  2. UTEP 134th and 133rd of 136
  3. Bowling Green 135th and 129th of 136
  4. Ball State 126th and 130th of 136
  5. Buffalo 133rd and 117th of 136
  6. Kennesaw State 124th and 119th of 136

About the stats on this chart

What is returning production?

Share of last season's production (by EPA) that's still on the roster this year.

Why does returning production matter?

Returning production says how much of last year's team is back. It matters in September and fades fast after that.

Where does the returning production data come from?

From CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason.

What is SP+ overall?

Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field. Higher is better.

Why does SP+ overall matter?

It's the best single number for how good a team is right now, schedule and all. If you only look at one rating, look at this one.

Where does the SP+ overall data come from?

From SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Oct 27, 2026.