College Football Playoff Projection Week 10, 2026: The CFB Charts Field
Published Nov. 2, 2026. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
Miami, Notre Dame, Utah and LSU get the first-round byes. The projected Power 4 champions are Miami (ACC), Utah (Big 12), UCLA (Big Ten) and Georgia (SEC), and Boise State takes the spot for the highest-ranked team outside the Power 4.
The last four in: Ole Miss, Texas, Wake Forest and Alabama. First four out: Kentucky, Texas Tech, USC and Ohio State. New this week: UCLA, Wake Forest and Ole Miss; out: Ohio State, BYU and Kentucky.
Miami survived North Carolina 38–35, with Darian Mensah going 22 of 29 for 274 yards and three touchdowns, two of them to Malachi Toney. It's 8–0, it leads FBS at 47.6 points a game, and Mensah has thrown 23 touchdowns against one interception. The defense allows 5.66 yards a play, 64th in FBS. Miami goes to Notre Dame on Saturday night, and the numbers pick the Irish, 60%.
Last game against the season average: 38 points (average 47.6), 35 points allowed (average 17.8), 274 passing yards (average 332), 151 rushing yards (average 206).
Notre Dame beat Navy 35–13 behind Nolan James Jr., who ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries. SP+ rates it 3rd, the defense allows 13.4 points a game (5th), and the only loss is 28–24 at BYU. Cornerback DJ McKinney is out with an ankle injury. Miami comes to South Bend on Saturday night, and the numbers pick Notre Dame, 60%.
Last game against the season average: 35 points (average 40.4), 13 points allowed (average 13.4), 210 passing yards (average 258), 191 rushing yards (average 190).
Utah moved up six spots after a 49–25 win at Cincinnati, where Devon Dampier completed 22 of 28 passes for 264 yards. It's 8–0 and 4th in strength of record, and Wayshawn Parker has 710 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. BYU visits Saturday with Utah a 68% pick.
Last game against the season average: 49 points (average 38.9), 25 points allowed (average 15.9), 270 passing yards (average 261), 223 rushing yards (average 230).
LSU is 4th here and 15th in the AP, the biggest split between us and the voters. Its two losses came by eight at Ole Miss and by one at Kentucky, and SP+ rates it 4th. LSU was off last week after a 38–17 win at Auburn, when Sam Leavitt threw for 387 yards. Alabama comes to Baton Rouge on Saturday, and LSU is a 66% pick.
Last game against the season average: 38 points (average 40.1), 17 points allowed (average 16.0), 387 passing yards (average 319), 131 rushing yards (average 199).
UCLA jumped six spots after shutting out Nevada 27–0, its third straight win without quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who's out for the season. The defense leads FBS in yards per play allowed (4.18) and is 5th in points allowed, and the Bruins are 2nd in strength of record. Ty Dieffenbach threw for 180 yards against Nevada. Next is Saturday at Minnesota, where UCLA is a 76% pick.
Last game against the season average: 27 points (average 33.5), 0 points allowed (average 13.4), 180 passing yards (average 211), 127 rushing yards (average 221).
Season leaders
PassingNico Iamaleava 992 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT Out for season: knee
RushingWayne Knight 632 yards, 11 TD on 108 carries
Injuries: Nico Iamaleava (QB, out for season). 6 on the last Big Ten availability report: Rodrick Pleasant, Tao Johnson, Mikey Matthews, Jonah Smith and 2 more.
The season
Scoring margin, game by game, numbered in the order of the results below. Biggest win: 54–3 at Maryland. Worst result: 17–15 at Oregon.
Points per game33.5 36th
Points allowed13.4 5th
Yards per play7.01 17th
Yards per play allowed4.18 1st
SP+15th
Strength of record2nd
National rank out of 138 FBS teams. A longer bar is better.
W California
W San Diego State
W Purdue
W Maryland
W Oregon
W Wisconsin
W Michigan State
W Nevada
This week: at Minnesota, Sat., Nov. 7, 12:00 AM ET. The numbers pick UCLA, 76% to win. Read the preview
No. 6 seed
Projected SEC champion (5–1 in conference), hosts No. 11
SP+ rates Georgia 1st, and it's 6th here because the 27–24 home loss to Auburn still drags its strength of record (17th). It beat Florida 27–8 last week while Gunner Stockton threw for 107 yards, and the defense held the Gators to eight points. Georgia goes to Ole Miss on Saturday night, and the numbers pick Georgia, 69%.
Last game against the season average: 27 points (average 41.0), 8 points allowed (average 14.9), 107 passing yards (average 250), 217 rushing yards (average 207).
Indiana beat Minnesota 23–16 with Josh Hoover completing 8 of 19 passes, and Charlie Becker caught eight of them for 149 yards. The defense allows 12.4 points a game, 3rd in FBS, and Indiana is 4th in strength of record. Its only loss was 19–15 to Ohio State. Indiana is off this week.
Last game against the season average: 23 points (average 32.4), 16 points allowed (average 12.4), 119 passing yards (average 234), 125 rushing yards (average 195).
Alabama was off last week after beating Texas A&M 31–20, when Keelon Russell threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns. It's 2nd in strength of record, with losses by three to Georgia and by 16 at Tennessee. The defense gives up 6.11 yards a play (90th). Alabama goes to LSU on Saturday, and the numbers pick LSU, 66%.
Last game against the season average: 31 points (average 38.3), 20 points allowed (average 21.3), 312 passing yards (average 263), 77 rushing yards (average 173).
Wake Forest beat Virginia 51–7 for its fifth straight win, and Carlos Hernandez caught eight passes for 136 yards. It's 2nd in FBS in yards per play (7.85) and 7th in yards per play allowed, and Giovanni Lopez has 17 touchdown passes and one interception. Its only loss was 33–20 to Miami. Wake Forest hosts Merrimack, an FCS team, on Saturday.
Last game against the season average: 51 points (average 39.1), 7 points allowed (average 17.9), 229 passing yards (average 284), 263 rushing yards (average 177).
Texas beat Mississippi State 31–3, with Arch Manning completing 16 of 20 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns. The defense is 3rd in yards per play allowed (4.50), and SP+ rates Texas 7th. Edge rusher Colin Simmons, who leads the team with eight sacks, is out with an ankle injury. Saturday's trip to Missouri has Texas as a 67% pick.
Last game against the season average: 31 points (average 30.8), 3 points allowed (average 17.1), 220 passing yards (average 223), 78 rushing yards (average 153).
Ole Miss beat Auburn 45–15 and climbed three spots, with Trinidad Chambliss throwing for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Its losses came at Florida, 52–28, and at Texas, 34–27, and it owns a 32–24 win over LSU. Running back Kewan Lacy is out with a dislocated shoulder. Georgia visits Saturday night, and the numbers pick Georgia, 69%.
Last game against the season average: 45 points (average 37.1), 15 points allowed (average 24.0), 263 passing yards (average 293), 194 rushing yards (average 163).
Boise State held off Texas State 46–45, with Rasean Jones catching nine passes for 117 yards and three touchdowns. Its only loss was 34–27 at Oregon, and the defense gives up 7.47 yards a play, 135th in FBS. Dylan Riley has 1,040 rushing yards. Saturday at Colorado State, Boise State is a 92% pick.
Last game against the season average: 46 points (average 35.9), 45 points allowed (average 23.6), 250 passing yards (average 230), 114 rushing yards (average 226).
It follows the 2026–27 playoff rules on top of the CFB Charts Top 25 (SP+ and EPA, record, strength of record and vibes, with a hit for a missing quarterback; head to head breaks close calls). The four Power 4 champions get in, projected as the team with the best conference record (ties go to fewer conference losses, then the ranking), along with the highest-ranked team outside the Power 4. Notre Dame gets in if it's in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams in ranking order, and seeds go by the ranking..
