College Football Top 25 Week 10, 2026: The Numbers Behind Every Team
Published Nov. 2, 2026. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
Miami is No. 1 after a 38–35 escape at North Carolina, and Notre Dame is No. 2. They play each other Saturday night in South Bend, and the numbers pick Notre Dame, 60%. This is the first week built on the new formula: SP+ and EPA for how good a team is, record and strength of record for what it's done, vibes for how it's playing now, and a hit for a missing starting quarterback.
Ohio State fell from 1st to 15th. It lost 30–18 at USC in its first game without Julian Sayin, and that quarterback injury counts against it here until it wins without him. SP+ still rates the Buckeyes 2nd.
The AP and the numbers split hardest on LSU (4th here, 15th there) and BYU (16th here, 7th there). Iowa, Oregon and South Carolina are new, and Nebraska, Florida and Wisconsin are out. Eight games this week match two teams from this list, including Alabama at LSU, Georgia at Ole Miss and Oregon at Ohio State.
Where the Top 25 sit among every FBS team
SP+ offense against SP+ defense for all 138 FBS teams. The Top 25 are in full color; everyone else is faded. Up and to the right is better.
Miami survived North Carolina 38–35, with Darian Mensah going 22 of 29 for 274 yards and three touchdowns, two of them to Malachi Toney. It's 8–0, it leads FBS at 47.6 points a game, and Mensah has thrown 23 touchdowns against one interception. The defense allows 5.66 yards a play, 64th in FBS. Miami goes to Notre Dame on Saturday night, and the numbers pick the Irish, 60%.
Last game against the season average: 38 points (average 47.6), 35 points allowed (average 17.8), 274 passing yards (average 332), 151 rushing yards (average 206).
Notre Dame beat Navy 35–13 behind Nolan James Jr., who ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries. SP+ rates it 3rd, the defense allows 13.4 points a game (5th), and the only loss is 28–24 at BYU. Cornerback DJ McKinney is out with an ankle injury. Miami comes to South Bend on Saturday night, and the numbers pick Notre Dame, 60%.
Last game against the season average: 35 points (average 40.4), 13 points allowed (average 13.4), 210 passing yards (average 258), 191 rushing yards (average 190).
Utah moved up six spots after a 49–25 win at Cincinnati, where Devon Dampier completed 22 of 28 passes for 264 yards. It's 8–0 and 4th in strength of record, and Wayshawn Parker has 710 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. BYU visits Saturday with Utah a 68% pick.
Last game against the season average: 49 points (average 38.9), 25 points allowed (average 15.9), 270 passing yards (average 261), 223 rushing yards (average 230).
LSU is 4th here and 15th in the AP, the biggest split between us and the voters. Its two losses came by eight at Ole Miss and by one at Kentucky, and SP+ rates it 4th. LSU was off last week after a 38–17 win at Auburn, when Sam Leavitt threw for 387 yards. Alabama comes to Baton Rouge on Saturday, and LSU is a 66% pick.
Last game against the season average: 38 points (average 40.1), 17 points allowed (average 16.0), 387 passing yards (average 319), 131 rushing yards (average 199).
UCLA jumped six spots after shutting out Nevada 27–0, its third straight win without quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who's out for the season. The defense leads FBS in yards per play allowed (4.18) and is 5th in points allowed, and the Bruins are 2nd in strength of record. Ty Dieffenbach threw for 180 yards against Nevada. Next is Saturday at Minnesota, where UCLA is a 76% pick.
Last game against the season average: 27 points (average 33.5), 0 points allowed (average 13.4), 180 passing yards (average 211), 127 rushing yards (average 221).
Season leaders
PassingNico Iamaleava 992 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT Out for season: knee
RushingWayne Knight 632 yards, 11 TD on 108 carries
Injuries: Nico Iamaleava (QB, out for season). 6 on the last Big Ten availability report: Rodrick Pleasant, Tao Johnson, Mikey Matthews, Jonah Smith and 2 more.
The season
Scoring margin, game by game, numbered in the order of the results below. Biggest win: 54–3 at Maryland. Worst result: 17–15 at Oregon.
Points per game33.5 36th
Points allowed13.4 5th
Yards per play7.01 17th
Yards per play allowed4.18 1st
SP+15th
Strength of record2nd
National rank out of 138 FBS teams. A longer bar is better.
W California
W San Diego State
W Purdue
W Maryland
W Oregon
W Wisconsin
W Michigan State
W Nevada
This week: at Minnesota, Sat., Nov. 7, 12:00 AM ET. The numbers pick UCLA, 76% to win. Read the preview
SP+ rates Georgia 1st, and it's 6th here because the 27–24 home loss to Auburn still drags its strength of record (17th). It beat Florida 27–8 last week while Gunner Stockton threw for 107 yards, and the defense held the Gators to eight points. Georgia goes to Ole Miss on Saturday night, and the numbers pick Georgia, 69%.
Last game against the season average: 27 points (average 41.0), 8 points allowed (average 14.9), 107 passing yards (average 250), 217 rushing yards (average 207).
Indiana beat Minnesota 23–16 with Josh Hoover completing 8 of 19 passes, and Charlie Becker caught eight of them for 149 yards. The defense allows 12.4 points a game, 3rd in FBS, and Indiana is 4th in strength of record. Its only loss was 19–15 to Ohio State. Indiana is off this week.
Last game against the season average: 23 points (average 32.4), 16 points allowed (average 12.4), 119 passing yards (average 234), 125 rushing yards (average 195).
Alabama was off last week after beating Texas A&M 31–20, when Keelon Russell threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns. It's 2nd in strength of record, with losses by three to Georgia and by 16 at Tennessee. The defense gives up 6.11 yards a play (90th). Alabama goes to LSU on Saturday, and the numbers pick LSU, 66%.
Last game against the season average: 31 points (average 38.3), 20 points allowed (average 21.3), 312 passing yards (average 263), 77 rushing yards (average 173).
Wake Forest beat Virginia 51–7 for its fifth straight win, and Carlos Hernandez caught eight passes for 136 yards. It's 2nd in FBS in yards per play (7.85) and 7th in yards per play allowed, and Giovanni Lopez has 17 touchdown passes and one interception. Its only loss was 33–20 to Miami. Wake Forest hosts Merrimack, an FCS team, on Saturday.
Last game against the season average: 51 points (average 39.1), 7 points allowed (average 17.9), 229 passing yards (average 284), 263 rushing yards (average 177).
Texas beat Mississippi State 31–3, with Arch Manning completing 16 of 20 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns. The defense is 3rd in yards per play allowed (4.50), and SP+ rates Texas 7th. Edge rusher Colin Simmons, who leads the team with eight sacks, is out with an ankle injury. Saturday's trip to Missouri has Texas as a 67% pick.
Last game against the season average: 31 points (average 30.8), 3 points allowed (average 17.1), 220 passing yards (average 223), 78 rushing yards (average 153).
Ole Miss beat Auburn 45–15 and climbed three spots, with Trinidad Chambliss throwing for 263 yards and two touchdowns. Its losses came at Florida, 52–28, and at Texas, 34–27, and it owns a 32–24 win over LSU. Running back Kewan Lacy is out with a dislocated shoulder. Georgia visits Saturday night, and the numbers pick Georgia, 69%.
Last game against the season average: 45 points (average 37.1), 15 points allowed (average 24.0), 263 passing yards (average 293), 194 rushing yards (average 163).
Kentucky is 7–1 and 1st in FBS in strength of record, built on one-score wins over South Carolina (35–34), LSU (35–34) and Oklahoma (21–13). SP+ rates it 34th, and the offense gains 5.78 yards a play (95th). It was off last week after beating Vanderbilt 34–17. Kentucky goes to Tennessee on Saturday, and the numbers pick Tennessee, 74%.
Last game against the season average: 34 points (average 32.9), 17 points allowed (average 24.8), 203 passing yards (average 220), 163 rushing yards (average 171).
Texas Tech jumped eight spots after beating Arizona 34–26, with J'Koby Williams running for 175 yards on 14 carries. SP+ rates it 10th, and its only loss was 37–24 at Cincinnati. Williams has 790 rushing yards this season. West Virginia visits Saturday night, and Texas Tech is an 84% pick.
Last game against the season average: 34 points (average 35.6), 26 points allowed (average 21.1), 144 passing yards (average 223), 335 rushing yards (average 217).
USC handed Ohio State its second loss, 30–18, as Jayden Maiava threw for 224 yards and King Miller ran for 78 and a touchdown. It's 7–2, with losses to Oregon and at Wisconsin, 24–7. Maiava has 20 touchdown passes and five interceptions. USC is off this week.
Last game against the season average: 30 points (average 32.4), 18 points allowed (average 24.2), 224 passing yards (average 297), 126 rushing yards (average 142).
Ohio State lost 30–18 at USC in its first game without Julian Sayin, and Luke Fahey went 21 of 38 for 272 yards. SP+ still rates it 2nd and it's 8th in strength of record, but the missing quarterback counts against it here until it wins without him. Jeremiah Smith caught 10 passes for 93 yards and has 13 touchdowns this season. Oregon visits Saturday, and the numbers pick Ohio State, 88%.
Last game against the season average: 18 points (average 36.6), 30 points allowed (average 15.5), 272 passing yards (average 310), 213 rushing yards (average 174).
Season leaders
PassingJulian Sayin 2,007 yards, 19 TD, 3 INT Out indefinitely: throwing shoulder
Injuries: Julian Sayin (QB, out indefinitely). 11 on the last Big Ten availability report: Brandon Inniss, Leroy Roker III, Brock Boyd, Brenten "Inky" Jones and 7 more.
The season
Scoring margin, game by game, numbered in the order of the results below. Biggest win: 59–3 vs. Kent State. Worst result: 18–30 at USC.
Points per game36.6 19th
Points allowed15.5 13th
Yards per play7.26 11th
Yards per play allowed4.70 8th
SP+2nd
Strength of record8th
National rank out of 138 FBS teams. A longer bar is better.
W Ball State
L Texas
W Kent State
W Illinois
W Iowa
W Maryland
W Indiana
L USC
This week: vs. Oregon, Sat., Nov. 7, 3:30 PM ET, CBS. The numbers pick Ohio State, 88% to win. Read the preview
BYU beat Arizona State 27–20, with Bear Bachmeier throwing for 236 yards. It's 8th in strength of record with a 28–24 win over Notre Dame, and the AP has it 7th, nine spots higher than we do. Running back LJ Martin and cornerback Evan Johnson are both out. BYU goes to Utah on Saturday, and the numbers pick Utah, 68%.
Last game against the season average: 27 points (average 32.4), 20 points allowed (average 18.8), 236 passing yards (average 223), 53 rushing yards (average 180).
Injuries: LJ Martin (RB, out); Evan Johnson (CB, out). 4 on the last Big 12 availability report: Jonathan Kabeya, Pierson Watson, Seth Shigg, Kendal Wall.
The season
Scoring margin, game by game, numbered in the order of the results below. Biggest win: 63–7 vs. Utah Tech. Worst result: 31–39 at UCF.
Points per game32.4 42nd
Points allowed18.8 25th
Yards per play6.22 59th
Yards per play allowed5.19 21st
SP+14th
Strength of record8th
National rank out of 138 FBS teams. A longer bar is better.
W Utah Tech
W Arizona
W Colorado State
W TCU
W Iowa State
W Notre Dame
L UCF
W Arizona State
This week: at Utah, Sat., Nov. 7, 12:00 PM ET, ABC. The numbers pick Utah, 68% to win. Read the preview
Tennessee was off last week after a 27–24 loss at South Carolina, when DeSean Bishop ran 32 times for 120 yards. Bishop has 914 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, and the defense allows 16.2 points a game (17th). SP+ rates Tennessee 11th. Kentucky visits Saturday, and the numbers pick Tennessee, 74%.
Last game against the season average: 24 points (average 32.3), 27 points allowed (average 16.3), 136 passing yards (average 185), 184 rushing yards (average 225).
Arizona lost 34–26 at Texas Tech even though Noah Fifita threw for 419 yards, 182 of them to Isaiah Mizell. SP+ rates it 19th, and the AP has it 24th. The defense allows 5.87 yards a play (72nd). TCU visits Saturday with Arizona an 81% pick.
Last game against the season average: 26 points (average 34.9), 34 points allowed (average 18.9), 419 passing yards (average 324), 47 rushing yards (average 142).
Missouri won 34–10 at Arkansas behind Jamal Roberts, who ran for 135 yards and has 980 this season. Its losses came at Mississippi State and at Ole Miss, 31–3, and SP+ rates it 16th. Texas visits Saturday, and the numbers pick Texas, 67%.
Last game against the season average: 34 points (average 31.5), 10 points allowed (average 18.4), 189 passing yards (average 261), 138 rushing yards (average 166).
Houston was off last week after a 21–13 loss at Utah. It's 11th in strength of record, its other loss came by two at Texas Tech, and Conner Weigman has 17 touchdown passes against two interceptions. The defense gives up 6.98 yards a play, 127th in FBS. Houston is a 72% pick against Cincinnati on Saturday.
Last game against the season average: 13 points (average 36.0), 21 points allowed (average 21.0), 282 passing yards (average 271), 109 rushing yards (average 208).
Iowa is new this week after shutting out Wisconsin 30–0, with Hank Brown completing 20 of 24 passes for 234 yards. The defense allows 12.5 points a game, 4th in FBS, and the offense gains 5.75 yards a play, 98th. Its losses were to Ohio State and by three at Minnesota. Iowa goes to Northwestern on Saturday, and the numbers pick Northwestern, 59%.
Last game against the season average: 30 points (average 28.3), 0 points allowed (average 12.5), 234 passing yards (average 212), 153 rushing yards (average 176).
Oregon is new this week after beating Northwestern 34–26, as Dylan Raiola threw for 354 yards and three touchdowns, two of them to Dakorien Moore. That win is why Oregon sits two spots ahead of Northwestern, and SP+ rates the Ducks 12th even at 5–3. Quarterback Dante Moore is out for the season. Oregon goes to Ohio State on Saturday, and the numbers pick Ohio State, 88%.
Last game against the season average: 34 points (average 33.3), 26 points allowed (average 21.4), 354 passing yards (average 290), 123 rushing yards (average 148).
Injuries: Dante Moore (QB, out for season). 8 on the last Big Ten availability report: Iverson Hooks, Jeremiah McClellan, Messiah Hampton, Aaron Flowers and 4 more.
The season
Scoring margin, game by game, numbered in the order of the results below. Biggest win: 84–0 vs. Portland State. Worst result: 10–21 at Illinois.
Points per game33.2 38th
Points allowed21.4 47th
Yards per play6.50 41st
Yards per play allowed5.49 48th
SP+12th
Strength of record28th
National rank out of 138 FBS teams. A longer bar is better.
W Boise State
L Oklahoma State
W Portland State
W USC
L UCLA
W Nebraska
L Illinois
W Northwestern
This week: at Ohio State, Sat., Nov. 7, 3:30 PM ET, CBS. The numbers pick Ohio State, 88% to win. Read the preview
Boise State held off Texas State 46–45, with Rasean Jones catching nine passes for 117 yards and three touchdowns. Its only loss was 34–27 at Oregon, and the defense gives up 7.47 yards a play, 135th in FBS. Dylan Riley has 1,040 rushing yards. Saturday at Colorado State, Boise State is a 92% pick.
Last game against the season average: 46 points (average 35.9), 45 points allowed (average 23.6), 250 passing yards (average 230), 114 rushing yards (average 226).
Northwestern dropped six spots after losing 34–26 at Oregon, though Griffin Wilde caught five passes for 146 yards. Its other loss was 29–23 at Indiana, and Aidan Chiles has 12 touchdown passes and one interception. The AP doesn't rank Northwestern. Iowa visits Saturday, and the numbers pick Northwestern, 59%.
Last game against the season average: 26 points (average 33.6), 34 points allowed (average 18.8), 281 passing yards (average 237), 189 rushing yards (average 210).
South Carolina won 42–25 at Oklahoma, with Lanorris Sellers completing 19 of 24 passes for 303 yards. It's 5–3 and 43rd in strength of record, and it's here on three straight wins and an offense that scores 36.9 points a game (18th). Its losses came by seven, 31 and one. Texas A&M visits Saturday, and South Carolina is a 62% pick.
Last game against the season average: 42 points (average 36.9), 25 points allowed (average 25.3), 303 passing yards (average 253), 214 rushing yards (average 222).
Four things, each on the same scale: how good a team is (SP+ 45%, opponent-adjusted EPA per play 10%), what it has done (win-loss record 10%, strength of record 25%, so a bad loss drags a team and a hard schedule lifts it), and its current form (vibes 10%: the last three games against expectations, the last game and the current streak, capped so a hot streak nudges a team and never carries it). A soft schedule shrinks the record and vibes boosts, so 7–1 against nobody isn't 7–1 in the SEC. A starting quarterback out costs a team a lot, other key players a little, less for every game it plays without him and nothing once it keeps winning. Then head to head: a team that beat a team ranked just above it moves ahead of it. The ranking posts once SP+ counts the week's games.. Where every number comes from.