This week's picks

Toledo vs. Michigan State 2026 Recap

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Toledo at Michigan State, Week 1

Final: Toledo 20, Michigan State 30. Elo pick: Toledo (missed).

Toledo and Michigan State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Every Week 1 game, graded.

Toledo at Michigan State, Week 1: questions people ask

Who won Toledo vs. Michigan State, and what was the score?

Michigan State beat Toledo 30–20 on Fri, Sep 4 at Spartan Stadium.

Did Elo get Toledo at Michigan State right?

No. Elo picked Toledo, 58% chance to win going in. Michigan State won by 10.

What decided Toledo at Michigan State?

Michigan State had a 37% success rate to Toledo's 33%. Toledo hit more big plays: 17% of its plays were explosive (runs of 12+ yards, passes of 16+), to 8%. Toledo turned it over once to Michigan State's 0.

Toledo vs. Michigan State player stats: who had the big game?

Alessio Milivojevic (Michigan State) threw for 247 yards, Camryn Edwards (Michigan State) ran for 98 yards, and Adjatay Dabbs (Toledo) had 101 receiving yards.

What's the Michigan State–Toledo series record now?

Michigan State leads 2–0.