This week's picks

Arizona vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026
Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Arizona at Texas Tech

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, Jones AT&T Stadium.

The numbers say: Texas Tech, 54% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET
TVESPN
WhereJones AT&T Stadium
Weather63°, overcast, wind 6 mph
LineTexas Tech −3.5, total 54.5
Line movementOpened Texas Tech −7.5; moved 4 points toward Arizona. Total opened 52.5, up 2.
SeriesTexas Tech leads 27–5–2
Last meetingTexas Tech 28–22 in 2024

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Texas Tech by 4.964%57
PRIMEArizona by 8.673%
EloTexas Tech60%
The lineTexas Tech −3.5, opened −7.554.5, opened 52.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Arizona or Texas Tech?

The numbers say: Texas Tech. 50% chance to win

Which matchups decide Arizona vs. Texas Tech?

The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Texas Tech ahead by a hair. Texas Tech's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 20th in 3rd down conversion, against Arizona's 3rd down defense at 101st. Arizona's way back in is its pass rush, 13th in sack rate, against Texas Tech's pass protection at 58th.

Arizona with the ball

Texas Tech with the ball

Who's out for Arizona and Texas Tech?

Arizona

Texas Tech

How Arizona and Texas Tech compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Arizona and Texas Tech are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Arizona's and Texas Tech's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Arizona and Texas Tech?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Texas Tech 2.4 points better (9th to 14th). PRIME has Arizona by 11.1 instead. The two ratings split on Texas Tech's offense: 10th in SP+, 56th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Texas Tech ahead (13th to 15th).

ArizonaTexas Tech
SP+ overall16.0 (14th)18.4 (9th)
SP+ offense35.4 (14th)36.2 (10th)
SP+ defense19.0 (24th)18.2 (23rd)
SP+ special teams-0.4 (113th)0.4 (11th)
PRIME net15.5 (14th)4.4 (47th)
PRIME offense8.76 (19th)1.18 (56th)
PRIME defense5.61 (25th)2.31 (51st)
PRIME SOS-3.0 (74th)-0.5 (48th)
PRIME SOR2.0 (20th)2.4 (15th)
Elo1811 (15th)1825 (13th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Arizona's offense ranks 26th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Texas Tech defense it faces ranks 16th in EPA per play allowed. Texas Tech's offense ranks 48th against Arizona's 17th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Texas Tech's big plays: 67th in adjusted explosiveness, against Arizona's 108th-ranked defense.

ArizonaTexas Tech
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.18 (26th)+0.13 (48th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.30 (16th)+0.21 (49th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.08 (55th)+0.12 (29th)
Success rate (adjusted)44.6% (35th)46.4% (20th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)46.9% (67th)50.5% (22nd)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)36.1% (4th)32.5% (28th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.95 (44th)0.94 (67th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.95 (71st)3.09 (29th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.06 (92nd)1.39 (10th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.02 (17th)+0.02 (16th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.11 (23rd)+0.11 (21st)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.02 (32nd)+0.03 (38th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)38.7% (28th)39.0% (30th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.96 (108th)0.93 (58th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.84 (33rd)2.89 (48th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)0.97 (24th)1.11 (61st)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Arizona or Texas Tech?

Arizona is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (47th). Texas Tech's pass defense ranks 21st, so that's strength on strength. Texas Tech is better running (31st in EPA per rush) than throwing (52nd). Arizona's run defense ranks 38th.

ArizonaTexas Tech
EPA per play+0.27 (19th)+0.15 (63rd)
EPA per pass+0.44 (12th)+0.26 (52nd)
EPA per rush+0.14 (47th)+0.18 (31st)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.59 (34th)+0.47 (64th)
EPA per play allowed−0.05 (14th)−0.04 (16th)
EPA per pass allowed−0.04 (8th)+0.04 (21st)
EPA per rush allowed−0.02 (38th)−0.07 (18th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.39 (67th)+0.07 (5th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Arizona or Texas Tech?

Arizona outscores FBS opponents by 19.4 a game, and Texas Tech by 15.5. Arizona's offense ranks 21st in scoring, and the Texas Tech defense it faces ranks 35th in points allowed. Texas Tech's offense ranks 26th against Arizona's 23rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.

ArizonaTexas Tech
Points scored36.1 (21st)35.9 (26th)
Points allowed16.7 (23rd)20.4 (35th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Arizona has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 45th, against a defense ranked 60th in explosive plays allowed. Texas Tech's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 20th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Arizona's defense ranks 101st in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.

ArizonaTexas Tech
Pass yards / game310.0 (9th)233.7 (66th)
Rush yards / game155.0 (87th)199.1 (31st)
Yards per play6.54 (41st)7.10 (15th)
Yards per carry5.34 (57th)5.64 (36th)
Yards per attempt7.81 (62nd)9.57 (10th)
Completion %63.7% (68th)83.0% (3rd)
Success rate46.2% (40th)53.4% (3rd)
Explosive play rate13.1% (45th)15.5% (13th)
3rd down conversion44.8% (42nd)47.9% (20th)
Sack rate (taken)5.8% (76th)5.0% (58th)
INT rate (thrown)2.2% (59th)4.1% (126th)
SUPLEX60.6% (33rd)69.5% (5th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Arizona's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 13th in sack rate, and Texas Tech's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (58th). Texas Tech's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 16th in interception rate, and Arizona's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (59th).

ArizonaTexas Tech
Pass yards allowed / game214.0 (72nd)271.7 (129th)
Rush yards allowed / game123.7 (30th)125.4 (33rd)
Yards per play allowed5.64 (61st)5.24 (28th)
Yards per carry allowed4.07 (22nd)4.67 (60th)
Yards per attempt allowed8.01 (91st)5.91 (21st)
Success rate allowed38.2% (44th)36.7% (29th)
Explosive plays allowed11.7% (82nd)10.7% (60th)
3rd downs allowed43.2% (101st)34.2% (36th)
Sack rate (generated)9.2% (13th)6.1% (69th)
INT rate (generated)1.1% (123rd)4.0% (16th)
SUPLEX allowed45.5% (20th)45.5% (20th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Arizona has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Texas Tech ranks 5th and Arizona 127th.

ArizonaTexas Tech
Big Uglies: offensive line51.4 (60th)50.6 (64th)
Big Uglies: defensive front54.8 (30th)54.0 (38th)
Line yards per carry3.23 (37th)3.25 (33rd)
Line yards allowed per carry2.70 (34th)2.78 (53rd)
Second-level yards per carry1.29 (15th)1.31 (9th)
Open-field yards per carry1.12 (77th)1.70 (21st)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)17.1% (64th)18.4% (83rd)
Stuff rate (defense)21.4% (35th)20.8% (41st)
Power success (short yardage)75.0% (53rd)66.7% (100th)
Power success allowed82.6% (127th)54.5% (5th)
Front-seven havoc allowed8.4% (46th)11.1% (117th)
Front-seven havoc11.3% (31st)9.1% (80th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Texas Tech is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Arizona is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Texas Tech. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.

ArizonaTexas Tech
Interceptions thrown / game0.86 (84th)1.00 (105th)
Fumbles lost / game0.29 (20th)0.71 (99th)
Giveaways / game1.14 (52nd)1.71 (117th)
Interceptions / game0.29 (119th)1.86 (2nd)
Fumbles recovered / game0.57 (51st)0.14 (121st)
Takeaways / game0.86 (107th)2.00 (6th)
Turnover margin / game-0.3 (95th)+0.3 (50th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Texas Tech has the more talented roster (28th in the 247Sports talent composite; Arizona is 54th). But Arizona plays further above its talent: +13.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Texas Tech's +11.8.

ArizonaTexas Tech
Talent composite699.6 (54th)767.9 (28th)
Blue-chip ratio15.5% (48th)29.3% (29th)
Players on roster103 (119th)108 (87th)
Rated by 247Sports84 (44th)82 (52nd)
5-star players0 (37th)2 (19th)
4-star players13 (46th)22 (30th)
3-star players67 (45th)56 (92nd)
Below 3-star4 (38th)2 (68th)
2026 transfers in23 (56th)23 (56th)
Transfer share27.4% (76th)28.0% (74th)
SP+ vs. talent+13.7 (10th)+11.8 (13th)
Returning production64.9% (33rd)53.4% (53rd)
Returning passing production119.9% (3rd)26.8% (68th)
Returning rushing production60.3% (57th)98.8% (23rd)
Returning receiving production43.8% (58th)57.0% (34th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)42 (42nd)18 (18th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes54.2 (56th)29.8 (25th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Texas Tech's roster is valued at $33.4M, Arizona's at $19.9M. Dollar for dollar, Arizona plays better: +10.9 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +2.1 for Texas Tech.

ArizonaTexas Tech
Roster value$19.9M (55th)$33.4M (10th)
Roster cost per win$3.3M (5th)$5.6M (38th)
Projected wins per $1M0.46 (4th)0.29 (33rd)
SP+ vs. payroll+10.9 (3rd)+2.1 (29th)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Arizona is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.3). Texas Tech is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.5).

ArizonaTexas Tech
RECEIPTS (total)+2.5 (8th)+2.5 (8th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.8 (50th)+0.3 (76th)
Roster RECEIPTS+0.3 (50th)+0.7 (25th)
Coach RECEIPTS+1.3 (20th)+1.5 (12th)
Luck RECEIPTS+0.1 (62nd)-0.0 (70th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Arizona at Texas Tech: questions people ask

Arizona vs. Texas Tech prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Texas Tech, 50% chance to win. SP+ and Elo agree; PRIME has Arizona. Texas Tech's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 20th in 3rd down conversion, against Arizona's 3rd down defense at 101st.

Where can I watch Arizona vs. Texas Tech, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at Jones AT&T Stadium. It's on ESPN.

What's the projected score of Arizona vs. Texas Tech?

SP+ projects Texas Tech 31–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Arizona at Texas Tech?

DraftKings has Texas Tech −3.5, total 54.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Arizona vs. Texas Tech series history?

Texas Tech leads 27–5–2. Last meeting: Texas Tech won 28–22 in 2024.

Who are the players to watch in Arizona vs. Texas Tech?

Arizona: Noah Fifita (2,058 passing yards), Kedrick Reescano (297 rushing yards) and Isaiah Mizell (493 receiving yards). Texas Tech: Will Hammond (1,591 passing yards), J'Koby Williams (615 rushing yards) and Kenny Johnson (499 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Arizona at Texas Tech?

Arizona's is Noah Fifita (2,058 passing yards this season); Texas Tech's is Will Hammond (1,591 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Arizona and Texas Tech: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.