This week's picks

Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Notre Dame vs. Navy

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, Gillette Stadium.

The numbers say: Notre Dame, 97% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET
TVABC
WhereGillette Stadium (neutral site)
Weather48°, clear, wind 10 mph
LineNotre Dame −30.5, total 56.5
Line movementOpened Notre Dame −28.5; moved 2 points toward Notre Dame. Total opened 53.5, up 3.
SeriesNotre Dame leads 84–13–1
Last meetingNotre Dame 49–10 in 2025
Notre Dame injuriesDJ McKinney (CB), out

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Notre Dame by 26.897%62
PRIMENotre Dame by 25.597%
EloNotre Dame97%
The lineNotre Dame −30.5, opened −28.556.5, opened 53.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Notre Dame or Navy?

The numbers say: Notre Dame. 97% chance to win

Which matchups decide Notre Dame vs. Navy?

All three ratings favor Notre Dame, by 25.5 to 26.8 points, and it isn't close. Notre Dame's best matchup is its passing game, 7th in EPA per pass, against Navy's pass defense at 118th. Navy's way back in is its run defense, 24th in yards per carry allowed, against Notre Dame's run game at 68th. We left out the edges built on McKinney, who's out.

Notre Dame with the ball

Navy with the ball

Who's out for Notre Dame and Navy?

Notre Dame

Navy

How Notre Dame and Navy compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Notre Dame and Navy are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Notre Dame's and Navy's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Notre Dame and Navy?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Notre Dame 26.8 points better (3rd to 80th). PRIME also has Notre Dame ahead, by 25.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has Notre Dame ahead (1st to 70th).

Notre DameNavy
SP+ overall25.2 (3rd)-1.6 (80th)
SP+ offense39.5 (3rd)29.0 (52nd)
SP+ defense14.7 (8th)30.4 (101st)
SP+ special teams0.4 (11th)-0.3 (104th)
PRIME net21.3 (6th)-4.2 (89th)
PRIME offense11.69 (7th)-2.31 (84th)
PRIME defense9.31 (11th)-0.31 (71st)
PRIME SOS2.4 (19th)-3.5 (80th)
PRIME SOR2.9 (7th)-2.1 (118th)
Elo2082 (1st)1487 (70th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Notre Dame's offense ranks 2nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Navy defense it faces ranks 78th in EPA per play allowed. Navy's offense ranks 55th against Notre Dame's 14th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Notre Dame's offense against Navy's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Notre Dame's passing game: 7th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Navy's 118th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Navy's defense climbs from 112th to 78th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.

Notre DameNavy
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.26 (2nd)+0.12 (55th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.35 (7th)+0.22 (47th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.14 (9th)+0.11 (37th)
Success rate (adjusted)49.0% (6th)43.5% (46th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)54.1% (1st)50.5% (23rd)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)29.4% (95th)27.7% (117th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.93 (95th)0.97 (20th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)3.10 (24th)3.20 (7th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.10 (76th)1.46 (7th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)−0.00 (14th)+0.12 (78th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.15 (42nd)+0.27 (118th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)−0.06 (2nd)+0.02 (34th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)36.1% (10th)39.7% (38th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.92 (46th)0.94 (71st)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.73 (14th)2.71 (10th)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)0.81 (3rd)1.00 (33rd)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Notre Dame or Navy?

Notre Dame is about as good throwing (10th in EPA per pass) as running (8th). Navy is better running (14th in EPA per rush) than throwing (69th). Notre Dame's run defense ranks 2nd, so that's strength on strength. On third down, Notre Dame has the edge: its offense ranks 18th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 115th.

Notre DameNavy
EPA per play+0.36 (2nd)+0.19 (44th)
EPA per pass+0.46 (10th)+0.22 (69th)
EPA per rush+0.25 (8th)+0.23 (14th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.66 (18th)+0.62 (28th)
EPA per play allowed−0.08 (7th)+0.18 (112th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.07 (35th)+0.40 (129th)
EPA per rush allowed−0.18 (2nd)+0.03 (58th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.26 (29th)+0.58 (115th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Notre Dame or Navy?

Notre Dame outscores FBS opponents by 27.7 a game, and Navy by 0.6. Notre Dame's offense ranks 6th in scoring, and the Navy defense it faces ranks 108th in points allowed. Navy's offense ranks 64th against Notre Dame's 4th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Notre Dame's offense against Navy's defense.

Notre DameNavy
Points scored41.1 (6th)29.7 (64th)
Points allowed13.4 (4th)29.1 (108th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Notre Dame's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 6th in success rate, and Navy's defense ranks 84th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch. Navy's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 61st in 3rd down conversion rate, and Notre Dame's defense ranks 93rd in 3rd down conversions allowed.

Notre DameNavy
Pass yards / game263.4 (37th)119.4 (130th)
Rush yards / game188.1 (44th)315.3 (3rd)
Yards per play6.73 (29th)6.53 (43rd)
Yards per carry5.23 (68th)6.15 (14th)
Yards per attempt8.54 (35th)8.44 (38th)
Completion %67.1% (43rd)41.4% (133rd)
Success rate52.1% (6th)46.6% (35th)
Explosive play rate12.1% (71st)13.1% (44th)
3rd down conversion43.5% (50th)41.7% (61st)
Sack rate (taken)0.9% (2nd)7.5% (107th)
INT rate (thrown)0.5% (5th)2.0% (54th)
SUPLEX67.2% (10th)63.1% (22nd)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Notre Dame's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 39th in sack rate, and Navy's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (107th). That's a mismatch. Navy's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed, and Notre Dame's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (68th).

Notre DameNavy
Pass yards allowed / game170.7 (16th)259.1 (121st)
Rush yards allowed / game80.3 (3rd)131.1 (42nd)
Yards per play allowed4.67 (8th)6.68 (115th)
Yards per carry allowed3.23 (1st)4.12 (24th)
Yards per attempt allowed6.39 (37th)10.61 (137th)
Success rate allowed35.1% (15th)43.3% (84th)
Explosive plays allowed6.1% (2nd)11.0% (72nd)
3rd downs allowed41.5% (93rd)46.0% (119th)
Sack rate (generated)7.4% (39th)8.1% (26th)
INT rate (generated)4.3% (14th)2.3% (72nd)
SUPLEX allowed35.8% (1st)52.6% (61st)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Notre Dame has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Notre Dame ranks 1st and Navy 98th.

Notre DameNavy
Big Uglies: offensive line63.5 (6th)58.6 (15th)
Big Uglies: defensive front57.7 (20th)54.6 (32nd)
Line yards per carry3.25 (32nd)3.54 (4th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.60 (21st)2.66 (27th)
Second-level yards per carry0.91 (120th)1.24 (25th)
Open-field yards per carry1.01 (90th)1.91 (10th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)13.0% (13th)11.8% (7th)
Stuff rate (defense)21.7% (32nd)20.2% (48th)
Power success (short yardage)80.0% (24th)86.1% (5th)
Power success allowed71.4% (71st)78.6% (113th)
Front-seven havoc allowed3.9% (1st)10.1% (98th)
Front-seven havoc12.3% (18th)9.2% (77th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Notre Dame is +2.0 in turnover margin a game and Navy is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 14-point edge for Notre Dame. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Notre Dame's takeaways lean on them (1.1 of 2.3 a game).

Notre DameNavy
Interceptions thrown / game0.14 (5th)0.29 (16th)
Fumbles lost / game0.14 (3rd)1.14 (132nd)
Giveaways / game0.29 (1st)1.43 (88th)
Interceptions / game1.14 (14th)0.57 (85th)
Fumbles recovered / game1.14 (2nd)0.00 (131st)
Takeaways / game2.29 (4th)0.57 (126th)
Turnover margin / game+2.0 (2nd)-0.9 (123rd)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Notre Dame has the more talented roster (6th in the 247Sports talent composite; Navy is 138th). But Navy plays further above its talent: +27.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Notre Dame's +7.0.

Notre DameNavy
Talent composite953.0 (6th)195.7 (138th)
Blue-chip ratio68.7% (4th)0.0% (126th)
Players on roster113 (51st)197 (1st)
Rated by 247Sports99 (4th)19 (138th)
5-star players9 (6th)0 (37th)
4-star players59 (3rd)0 (126th)
3-star players31 (130th)12 (138th)
Below 3-star0 (113th)7 (14th)
2026 transfers in7 (132nd)— ()
Transfer share7.1% (132nd)— ()
SP+ vs. talent+7.0 (31st)+27.7 (1st)
Returning production51.2% (54th)13.8% (114th)
Returning passing production90.7% (45th)-3.1% (127th)
Returning rushing production12.3% (102nd)19.4% (94th)
Returning receiving production37.6% (68th)14.6% (113th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)5 (5th)144 (137th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes9.5 (8th)140.0 (135th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Notre DameNavy
Roster value$36.7M (6th)— ()
Roster cost per win$6.1M (46th)— ()
Projected wins per $1M0.29 (32nd)— ()
SP+ vs. payroll+6.8 (13th)— ()

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Notre Dame is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.7). Navy is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−3.3). Navy's record is 2.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.

Notre DameNavy
RECEIPTS (total)+2.5 (8th)-1.5 (115th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.1 (85th)+0.8 (50th)
Roster RECEIPTS+1.7 (7th)-3.3 (138th)
Coach RECEIPTS+1.1 (21st)+3.0 (3rd)
Luck RECEIPTS-0.4 (91st)-2.0 (138th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Notre Dame vs. Navy: questions people ask

Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Notre Dame, 97% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Notre Dame's best matchup is its passing game, 7th in EPA per pass, against Navy's pass defense at 118th.

Where can I watch Notre Dame vs. Navy, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium. It's on ABC.

What's the projected score of Notre Dame vs. Navy?

SP+ projects Notre Dame 44–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Notre Dame vs. Navy?

DraftKings has Notre Dame −30.5, total 56.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Notre Dame vs. Navy series history?

Notre Dame leads 84–13–1. Last meeting: Notre Dame won 49–10 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Notre Dame vs. Navy?

Notre Dame: C.J. Carr (1,651 passing yards), Jonaz Walton (426 rushing yards) and Jordan Faison (451 receiving yards). Navy: Jackson Gutierrez (692 passing yards), Vic Listorti (228 rushing yards) and Charles Robinson (85 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Notre Dame vs. Navy?

Notre Dame's is C.J. Carr (1,651 passing yards this season); Navy's is Jackson Gutierrez (692 passing yards this season).

Who's out for Notre Dame vs. Navy?

Notre Dame: McKinney (CB), out.

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Notre Dame and Navy: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.