This week's picks

Tulane vs. Charlotte Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

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Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Tulane at Charlotte

Week 9, Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET, Jerry Richardson Stadium.

The numbers say: Tulane, 82% to win.

The game

KickoffFri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET
TVESPN2
WhereJerry Richardson Stadium
Weather69°, clear, wind 4 mph
LineTulane −8.5, total 47.5
Line movementOpened Tulane −13.5; moved 5 points toward Charlotte. Total opened 45.5, up 2.
SeriesTulane leads 2–0
Last meetingTulane 27–0 in 2025

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+Tulane by 14.785%52
PRIMETulane by 6.167%
EloTulane91%
The lineTulane −8.5, opened −13.547.5, opened 45.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 3:56 PM ET.

Who wins, Tulane or Charlotte?

The numbers say: Tulane. 81% chance to win

Which matchups decide Tulane vs. Charlotte?

All three ratings favor Tulane, by 6.1 to 14.7 points, and it isn't close. Tulane's best matchup is its offense, 44th in yards per play, against Charlotte's defense at 132nd. Charlotte doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces.

Tulane with the ball

Charlotte with the ball

Who's out for Tulane and Charlotte?

Tulane

Charlotte

How Tulane and Charlotte compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Tulane and Charlotte are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Tulane's and Charlotte's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Tulane and Charlotte?

On a neutral field, SP+ has Tulane 17.2 points better (101st to 136th). PRIME also has Tulane ahead, by 8.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Tulane ahead (67th to 134th).

TulaneCharlotte
SP+ overall-8.2 (101st)-25.4 (136th)
SP+ offense19.4 (110th)15.5 (128th)
SP+ defense28.1 (83rd)40.7 (138th)
SP+ special teams0.6 (2nd)-0.2 (92nd)
PRIME net-8.3 (100th)-16.9 (132nd)
PRIME offense-9.26 (128th)-9.38 (130th)
PRIME defense0.63 (61st)-6.68 (120th)
PRIME SOS-1.5 (61st)-1.6 (64th)
PRIME SOR-0.8 (92nd)-2.8 (129th)
Elo1493 (67th)1026 (134th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Tulane's offense ranks 107th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Charlotte defense it faces ranks 99th in EPA per play allowed. Charlotte's offense ranks 133rd against Tulane's 55th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Tulane's big plays: 2nd in adjusted explosiveness, against Charlotte's 111th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Charlotte's defense climbs from 124th to 99th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.

TulaneCharlotte
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.05 (107th)−0.02 (133rd)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.13 (112th)+0.13 (106th)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.05 (83rd)−0.05 (134th)
Success rate (adjusted)32.7% (137th)34.8% (133rd)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)40.7% (137th)42.6% (130th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)26.3% (129th)27.1% (126th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)1.01 (2nd)0.89 (132nd)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)2.71 (129th)2.60 (136th)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.57 (3rd)1.16 (58th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.08 (55th)+0.14 (99th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.17 (54th)+0.26 (108th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.05 (57th)+0.09 (93rd)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)41.9% (73rd)45.6% (113th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.95 (91st)0.96 (111th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)3.07 (106th)3.01 (83rd)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.11 (64th)1.17 (83rd)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Tulane or Charlotte?

Tulane is better running (66th in EPA per rush) than throwing (100th). Charlotte's run defense ranks 112th, so that's an edge. Charlotte is better throwing (106th in EPA per pass) than running (130th). Tulane's pass defense ranks 56th, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, Tulane has the edge: its offense ranks 22nd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 62nd.

TulaneCharlotte
EPA per play+0.08 (96th)−0.04 (128th)
EPA per pass+0.11 (100th)+0.10 (106th)
EPA per rush+0.10 (66th)−0.11 (130th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.65 (22nd)+0.21 (123rd)
EPA per play allowed+0.10 (73rd)+0.24 (124th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.13 (56th)+0.41 (130th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.10 (89th)+0.16 (112th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.66 (129th)+0.38 (62nd)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Tulane or Charlotte?

Tulane is outscored by 4.3 a game, and Charlotte is outscored by 21.5. Tulane's offense ranks 118th in scoring, and the Charlotte defense it faces ranks 137th in points allowed. Charlotte's offense ranks 128th against Tulane's 73rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.

TulaneCharlotte
Points scored20.3 (118th)19.1 (128th)
Points allowed24.6 (73rd)40.6 (137th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Tulane's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 56th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Charlotte's defense ranks 128th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Charlotte has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 88th, against a defense ranked 103rd in yards per carry allowed.

TulaneCharlotte
Pass yards / game194.4 (104th)214.4 (86th)
Rush yards / game159.4 (80th)127.1 (118th)
Yards per play6.48 (44th)5.80 (95th)
Yards per carry5.81 (30th)4.89 (88th)
Yards per attempt7.87 (61st)6.92 (96th)
Completion %62.4% (74th)60.8% (83rd)
Success rate35.3% (131st)36.4% (129th)
Explosive play rate12.0% (75th)12.1% (70th)
3rd down conversion42.5% (56th)31.1% (126th)
Sack rate (taken)8.9% (119th)5.7% (73rd)
INT rate (thrown)2.9% (94th)4.2% (129th)
SUPLEX43.4% (132nd)49.8% (111th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Tulane's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 63rd in success rate allowed, and Charlotte's offense is bottom-20 in success rate (129th). That's a mismatch. Charlotte's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 92nd in sack rate, and Tulane's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (119th).

TulaneCharlotte
Pass yards allowed / game204.3 (55th)293.4 (136th)
Rush yards allowed / game223.7 (134th)198.6 (122nd)
Yards per play allowed5.85 (78th)7.27 (132nd)
Yards per carry allowed5.40 (103rd)5.37 (101st)
Yards per attempt allowed6.81 (55th)10.07 (136th)
Success rate allowed41.0% (63rd)51.3% (136th)
Explosive plays allowed11.9% (85th)15.0% (127th)
3rd downs allowed45.1% (115th)47.6% (128th)
Sack rate (generated)5.4% (84th)5.1% (92nd)
INT rate (generated)2.4% (71st)1.0% (128th)
SUPLEX allowed53.9% (66th)64.2% (132nd)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Charlotte has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is power success (short yardage), where Tulane ranks 11th and Charlotte 125th.

TulaneCharlotte
Big Uglies: offensive line41.8 (121st)36.5 (135th)
Big Uglies: defensive front43.9 (111th)48.9 (76th)
Line yards per carry2.61 (128th)2.60 (131st)
Line yards allowed per carry3.25 (119th)3.06 (93rd)
Second-level yards per carry0.91 (122nd)1.06 (80th)
Open-field yards per carry2.49 (3rd)1.53 (29th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)20.4% (108th)24.2% (134th)
Stuff rate (defense)15.2% (113th)22.7% (23rd)
Power success (short yardage)84.2% (11th)61.5% (125th)
Power success allowed75.0% (93rd)71.0% (70th)
Front-seven havoc allowed13.0% (132nd)12.1% (126th)
Front-seven havoc8.6% (93rd)8.7% (90th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Tulane is −0.1 in turnover margin a game and Charlotte is −1.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 8-point edge for Tulane. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Tulane's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.4 a game).

TulaneCharlotte
Interceptions thrown / game0.71 (61st)1.29 (127th)
Fumbles lost / game0.86 (116th)1.00 (127th)
Giveaways / game1.57 (107th)2.29 (133rd)
Interceptions / game0.71 (66th)0.29 (119th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.71 (24th)0.29 (94th)
Takeaways / game1.43 (41st)0.57 (126th)
Turnover margin / game-0.1 (77th)-1.7 (134th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

Tulane has the more talented roster (70th in the 247Sports talent composite; Charlotte is 104th). Tulane also plays further above its talent: −8.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Charlotte's −20.0.

TulaneCharlotte
Talent composite665.1 (70th)576.8 (104th)
Blue-chip ratio7.5% (82nd)3.1% (108th)
Players on roster117 (29th)110 (75th)
Rated by 247Sports80 (60th)65 (114th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players6 (73rd)2 (106th)
3-star players73 (18th)60 (74th)
Below 3-star1 (86th)3 (53rd)
2026 transfers in21 (67th)21 (67th)
Transfer share26.3% (84th)32.3% (56th)
SP+ vs. talent-8.4 (118th)-20.0 (137th)
Returning production21.0% (99th)40.9% (65th)
Returning passing production0.0% (109th)113.0% (4th)
Returning rushing production59.5% (59th)26.8% (85th)
Returning receiving production28.3% (85th)15.8% (110th)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)64 (64th)103 (103rd)
Recruiting rank, last four classes68.0 (70th)112.5 (116th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Tulane is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.3). Charlotte is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.9).

TulaneCharlotte
RECEIPTS (total)-0.5 (89th)-2.5 (129th)
Schedule RECEIPTS+0.1 (87th)+0.3 (78th)
Roster RECEIPTS-0.0 (68th)-0.6 (111th)
Coach RECEIPTS-1.3 (119th)-1.9 (134th)
Luck RECEIPTS+0.7 (26th)-0.2 (83rd)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Tulane at Charlotte: questions people ask

Tulane vs. Charlotte prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick Tulane, 81% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Tulane's best matchup is its offense, 44th in yards per play, against Charlotte's defense at 132nd.

Where can I watch Tulane vs. Charlotte, and what time is it?

Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET at Jerry Richardson Stadium. It's on ESPN2.

What's the projected score of Tulane vs. Charlotte?

SP+ projects Tulane 34–19. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Tulane at Charlotte?

DraftKings has Tulane −8.5, total 47.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Tulane vs. Charlotte series history?

Tulane leads 2–0. Last meeting: Tulane won 27–0 in 2025.

Who are the players to watch in Tulane vs. Charlotte?

Tulane: Kadin Semonza (814 passing yards), Johnnie Daniels (387 rushing yards) and Destyn Hill (343 receiving yards). Charlotte: Cole Gonzales (878 passing yards), Henry Rutledge (332 rushing yards) and Derrick Eley (436 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Tulane at Charlotte?

Tulane's is Kadin Semonza (814 passing yards this season); Charlotte's is Cole Gonzales (878 passing yards this season).

Who's out for Tulane at Charlotte?

Tulane: Kadin Semonza (QB) hasn't played since Week 6. Charlotte: Cole Gonzales (QB) hasn't played since Week 5.

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Tulane and Charlotte: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.