Michigan leads 75–38–5 in the Paul Bunyan Trophy through 2025. Michigan won the last meeting, 31–20, in 2025.
Who's won the Paul Bunyan Trophy lately?
- 2016
Michigan32–23 - 2017
Michigan State14–10 - 2018Michigan21–7
- 2019Michigan44–10
- 2020Michigan State27–24
- 2021Michigan State37–33
- 2022Michigan29–7
- 2023Michigan49–0
- 2024Michigan24–17
- 2025Michigan31–20
Michigan has won 4 straight, since 2022. Over the last 10 meetings, Michigan is 7–3.
What's the Paul Bunyan Trophy trophy?
Paul Bunyan Trophy: a four-foot wooden statue of the lumberjack on a five-foot base, presented by Governor G. Mennen Williams in 1953 to mark Michigan State's first Big Ten season; Lloyd Carr called it "the ugliest trophy in college football."
How did the Paul Bunyan Trophy start?
Michigan beat Michigan State 39-0 in Ann Arbor in 1898. Michigan State had its best run under Biggie Munn and Duffy Daugherty in the 1950s and '60s, and the trophy dates to the Spartans' first Big Ten season in 1953. In 2007 Michigan running back Mike Hart called the Spartans Michigan's "little brother," and Mark Dantonio answered that the rivalry was "just starting." In 2015 Michigan State won 27-23 when Michigan's punter bobbled a snap on the last play and the Spartans returned it for a touchdown.
What are the most famous Paul Bunyan Trophy games?
- 2001: ClockgateMichigan State won 26-24 on a final-play touchdown that Michigan argued came after the clock should have run out.Final: Michigan State 26–24
- 2015: The bobbled puntMichigan State returned a fumbled punt for a touchdown as time expired to win 27-23 in Ann Arbor.Final: Michigan State 27–23
- 2021: Walker's five touchdownsKenneth Walker III scored five touchdowns in Michigan State's 37-33 win.Final: Michigan State 37–33
How has the Paul Bunyan Trophy series swung?
Each bar is one meeting. Bars above the line are Michigan wins and bars below it are Michigan State wins; the taller the bar, the bigger the margin (bars stop at 56 points). Over the last 10 meetings Michigan is 7–3. Michigan swept the 1920s, 10–0; Michigan swept the 1940s, 8–0. The widest margins are Michigan 119–0 in 1902 and Michigan State 34–0 in 1967.
How do Michigan and Michigan State compare this season?
Michigan is the better team this season by SP+ (27th to 88th), and it's ahead on 8 of these 10 stats. Each row is one stat: the dots are each team's national rank out of 138, printed by the dot, and further left is better.
| National rank | Michigan | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 27th | 88th |
| SP+ offense | 87th | 99th |
| SP+ defense | 3rd | 68th |
| Success rate | 107th | 96th |
| Success rate allowed | 16th | 111th |
| Explosive play rate | 109th | 130th |
| Big Uglies: offensive line | 70th | 95th |
| Big Uglies: defensive front | 23rd | 70th |
| Takeaways a game | 60th | 123rd |
| Giveaways a game | 127th | 82nd |
What are the records in the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
- Biggest Michigan win
- 1902, 119–0
- Biggest Michigan State win
- 1967, 34–0
- Longest streaks
- Michigan, 14 straight (1916–1929); Michigan State, 4 straight (1934–1937)
- Most points
- Michigan, 119 in 1902
- Ties
- 5
Who has the most yards in the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
| Best single game | Most in the series | |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | Shea Patterson (Michigan), 384 passing yards in 2019, with 4 TDs | Chad Henne (Michigan), 880 passing yards in 4 games (2004–2007) |
| Rushing | Mike Hart (Michigan), 224 rushing yards in 2004, with 1 TD | Mike Hart (Michigan), 674 rushing yards in 4 games (2004–2007) |
| Receiving | Ricky White (Michigan State), 196 receiving yards in 2020, with 1 TD | Mario Manningham (Michigan), 270 receiving yards in 3 games (2005–2007) |
From the box scores of the 22 meetings since 2004 on CollegeFootballData.com. Older games don't have player stats.
Paul Bunyan Trophy results: every game since 1898
| Year | Winner | Score | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan | 31–20 | Michigan State |
| 2024 | Michigan | 24–17 | Michigan |
| 2023 | Michigan | 49–0 | Michigan State |
| 2022 | Michigan | 29–7 | Michigan |
| 2021 | Michigan State | 37–33 | Michigan State |
| 2020 | Michigan State | 27–24 | Michigan |
| 2019 | Michigan | 44–10 | Michigan |
| 2018 | Michigan | 21–7 | Michigan State |
| 2017 | Michigan State | 14–10 | Michigan |
| 2016 | Michigan | 32–23 | Michigan State |
| 2015 | Michigan State | 27–23 | Michigan |
| 2014 | Michigan State | 35–11 | Michigan State |
| 2013 | Michigan State | 29–6 | Michigan State |
| 2012 | Michigan | 12–10 | Michigan |
| 2011 | Michigan State | 28–14 | Michigan State |
| 2010 | Michigan State | 34–17 | Michigan |
| 2009 | Michigan State | 26–20 | Michigan State |
| 2008 | Michigan State | 35–21 | Michigan |
| 2007 | Michigan | 28–24 | Michigan State |
| 2006 | Michigan | 31–13 | Michigan |
| 2005 | Michigan | 34–31 | Michigan State |
| 2004 | Michigan | 45–37 | Michigan |
| 2003 | Michigan | 27–20 | Michigan State |
| 2002 | Michigan | 49–3 | Michigan |
| 2001 | Michigan State | 26–24 | Michigan State |
| 2000 | Michigan | 14–0 | Michigan |
| 1999 | Michigan State | 34–31 | Michigan State |
| 1998 | Michigan | 29–17 | Michigan |
| 1997 | Michigan | 23–7 | Michigan State |
| 1996 | Michigan | 45–29 | Michigan |
| 1995 | Michigan State | 28–25 | Michigan State |
| 1994 | Michigan | 40–20 | Michigan |
| 1993 | Michigan State | 17–7 | Michigan State |
| 1992 | Michigan | 35–10 | Michigan |
| 1991 | Michigan | 45–28 | Michigan State |
| 1990 | Michigan State | 28–27 | Michigan |
| 1989 | Michigan | 10–7 | Michigan State |
| 1988 | Michigan | 17–3 | Michigan |
| 1987 | Michigan State | 17–11 | Michigan State |
| 1986 | Michigan | 27–6 | Michigan |
| 1985 | Michigan | 31–0 | Michigan State |
| 1984 | Michigan State | 19–7 | Michigan |
| 1983 | Michigan | 42–0 | Michigan State |
| 1982 | Michigan | 31–17 | Michigan |
| 1981 | Michigan | 38–20 | Michigan State |
| 1980 | Michigan | 27–23 | Michigan |
| 1979 | Michigan | 21–7 | Michigan State |
| 1978 | Michigan State | 24–15 | Michigan |
| 1977 | Michigan | 24–14 | Michigan State |
| 1976 | Michigan | 42–10 | Michigan |
| 1975 | Michigan | 16–6 | Michigan State |
| 1974 | Michigan | 21–7 | Michigan |
| 1973 | Michigan | 31–0 | Michigan State |
| 1972 | Michigan | 10–0 | Michigan |
| 1971 | Michigan | 24–13 | Michigan State |
| 1970 | Michigan | 34–20 | Michigan |
| 1969 | Michigan State | 23–12 | Michigan State |
| 1968 | Michigan | 28–14 | Michigan |
| 1967 | Michigan State | 34–0 | Michigan |
| 1966 | Michigan State | 20–7 | Michigan State |
| 1965 | Michigan State | 24–7 | Michigan |
| 1964 | Michigan | 17–10 | Michigan State |
| 1963 | Tie | 7–7 | Michigan State |
| 1962 | Michigan State | 28–0 | Michigan State |
| 1961 | Michigan State | 28–0 | Michigan |
| 1960 | Michigan State | 24–17 | Michigan State |
| 1959 | Michigan State | 34–8 | Michigan |
| 1958 | Tie | 12–12 | Michigan |
| 1957 | Michigan State | 35–6 | Michigan |
| 1956 | Michigan State | 9–0 | Michigan |
| 1955 | Michigan | 14–7 | Michigan |
| 1954 | Michigan | 33–7 | Michigan |
| 1953 | Michigan State | 14–6 | Michigan State |
| 1952 | Michigan State | 27–13 | Michigan |
| 1951 | Michigan State | 25–0 | Michigan |
| 1950 | Michigan State | 14–7 | Michigan |
| 1949 | Michigan | 7–3 | Michigan |
| 1948 | Michigan | 13–7 | Michigan State |
| 1947 | Michigan | 55–0 | Michigan |
| 1946 | Michigan | 55–7 | Michigan |
| 1945 | Michigan | 40–0 | Michigan |
| 1942 | Michigan | 20–0 | Michigan |
| 1941 | Michigan | 19–7 | Michigan |
| 1940 | Michigan | 21–14 | Michigan |
| 1939 | Michigan | 26–13 | Michigan |
| 1938 | Michigan | 14–0 | Michigan |
| 1937 | Michigan State | 19–14 | Michigan |
| 1936 | Michigan State | 21–7 | Michigan |
| 1935 | Michigan State | 25–6 | Michigan |
| 1934 | Michigan State | 16–0 | Michigan |
| 1933 | Michigan | 20–6 | Michigan |
| 1932 | Michigan | 26–0 | Michigan |
| 1931 | Tie | 0–0 | Michigan State |
| 1930 | Tie | 0–0 | Michigan State |
| 1929 | Michigan | 17–0 | Michigan |
| 1928 | Michigan | 3–0 | Michigan |
| 1927 | Michigan | 21–0 | Michigan |
| 1926 | Michigan | 55–3 | Michigan |
| 1925 | Michigan | 39–0 | Michigan |
| 1924 | Michigan | 7–0 | Michigan State |
| 1923 | Michigan | 37–0 | Michigan |
| 1922 | Michigan | 63–0 | Michigan |
| 1921 | Michigan | 30–0 | Michigan |
| 1920 | Michigan | 35–0 | Michigan |
| 1919 | Michigan | 26–0 | Michigan |
| 1918 | Michigan | 21–6 | Michigan |
| 1917 | Michigan | 27–0 | Michigan State |
| 1916 | Michigan | 9–0 | Michigan |
| 1915 | Michigan State | 24–0 | Michigan |
| 1914 | Michigan | 3–0 | Michigan State |
| 1913 | Michigan State | 12–7 | Michigan |
| 1912 | Michigan | 55–7 | Michigan |
| 1911 | Michigan | 15–3 | Michigan State |
| 1910 | Michigan | 6–3 | Michigan |
| 1908 | Tie | 0–0 | Michigan |
| 1907 | Michigan | 46–0 | Michigan |
| 1902 | Michigan | 119–0 | Michigan |
| 1898 | Michigan | 39–0 | Michigan |
Results from CollegeFootballData.com. The schools' official series records can differ by a game or two (vacated wins, disputed early games).
Questions about the Paul Bunyan Trophy
Who leads the Paul Bunyan Trophy series?
Michigan leads 75–38–5 through the 2025 game, with 5 ties, in the 118 meetings on record since 1898.
Who won the last Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan beat Michigan State 31–20 on Oct 25, 2025 at Spartan Stadium.
When was the first Paul Bunyan Trophy?
1898. Michigan won 39–0.
What's the trophy for the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Paul Bunyan Trophy: a four-foot wooden statue of the lumberjack on a five-foot base, presented by Governor G. Mennen Williams in 1953 to mark Michigan State's first Big Ten season; Lloyd Carr called it "the ugliest trophy in college football."
What's the biggest win in the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan won by 119 in 1902, 119–0. Michigan State won by 34 in 1967, 34–0.
What's the longest winning streak in the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan won 14 straight from 1916 to 1929. Michigan State won 4 straight from 1934 to 1937.
Who has won the Paul Bunyan Trophy lately?
Michigan has won 4 straight, since 2022. Over the last 10 meetings, Michigan is 7–3.
Why is it called the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
In 2007 Michigan running back Mike Hart called the Spartans Michigan's "little brother," and Mark Dantonio answered that the rivalry was "just starting.
Who has the most passing yards in a Paul Bunyan Trophy game?
Shea Patterson (Michigan), 384 passing yards in 2019, with 4 TDs, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Chad Henne (Michigan), 880 passing yards in 4 games (2004–2007).
Who has the most rushing yards in a Paul Bunyan Trophy game?
Mike Hart (Michigan), 224 rushing yards in 2004, with 1 TD, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Mike Hart (Michigan), 674 rushing yards in 4 games (2004–2007).
Who has the most receiving yards in a Paul Bunyan Trophy game?
Ricky White (Michigan State), 196 receiving yards in 2020, with 1 TD, the most in one game since 2004. The most in the series: Mario Manningham (Michigan), 270 receiving yards in 3 games (2005–2007).
What is the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
The Paul Bunyan Trophy is the Michigan–Michigan State rivalry, first played in 1898. Michigan leads 75–38–5 through 2025, and the winner takes home the Paul Bunyan Trophy.
What happened in the 2001 Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Clockgate: Michigan State won 26-24 on a final-play touchdown that Michigan argued came after the clock should have run out. Final: Michigan State 26–24.
What happened in the 2015 Paul Bunyan Trophy?
The bobbled punt: Michigan State returned a fumbled punt for a touchdown as time expired to win 27-23 in Ann Arbor. Final: Michigan State 27–23.
What happened in the 2021 Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Walker's five touchdowns: Kenneth Walker III scored five touchdowns in Michigan State's 37-33 win. Final: Michigan State 37–33.
Who plays for the Paul Bunyan Trophy, and how old is it?
Michigan and Michigan State. Governor G. Mennen Williams first presented it in 1953, Michigan State's first Big Ten season, so it's more than 70 years old. It's a four-foot wooden Paul Bunyan on a five-foot base.
Where can I watch Michigan vs. Michigan State, and what time is it?
Michigan State at Michigan, Saturday, November 7, time to be announced, at Michigan Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
When and where is the 2026 Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan State at Michigan, Saturday, November 7, time to be announced, at Michigan Stadium.
Michigan vs. Michigan State prediction: who will win in 2026?
SP+ projects Michigan 26–9, about an 89% chance to win. The projection uses this season's ratings and updates every week.
Who has the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan has it. Michigan won the 2025 game, 31–20, its 4th straight.
What was the score of the last Michigan vs. Michigan State game?
Michigan won 31–20 on Oct 25, 2025.
What's the Michigan vs. Michigan State record in the last 10 years?
Michigan is 6–3 in the 9 meetings since 2016.
Michigan vs. Michigan State player stats: who starred in the 2025 game?
For Michigan, Bryce Underwood threw for 86 yards; Justice Haynes ran for 152 yards and 2 TDs; Andrew Marsh had 54 receiving yards. For Michigan State, Aidan Chiles threw for 130 yards; Makhi Frazier ran for 109 yards; Nick Marsh had 75 receiving yards.
Who won the 2025 Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan beat Michigan State 31–20 on Oct 25, 2025 at Spartan Stadium.
Who won the 2024 Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan beat Michigan State 24–17 on Oct 26, 2024 at Michigan Stadium.
Who won the 2023 Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan beat Michigan State 49–0 on Oct 21, 2023 at Spartan Stadium.
Who won the 2022 Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan beat Michigan State 29–7 on Oct 29, 2022 at Michigan Stadium.
Who won the 2021 Paul Bunyan Trophy?
Michigan State beat Michigan 37–33 on Oct 30, 2021 at Spartan Stadium.
When was the last time Michigan won the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
2025, 31–20, the most recent meeting.
When was the last time Michigan State won the Paul Bunyan Trophy?
2021, 37–33. Michigan has won all 4 meetings since.
Related
- Michigan's 2026 team page
- Michigan State's 2026 team page
- The Game: Michigan vs. Ohio State
- Little Brown Jug: Michigan vs. Minnesota
- Megaphone Trophy: Michigan State vs. Notre Dame
- Land Grant Trophy: Michigan State vs. Penn State
- Every named rivalry
History and trophy sources: en.wikipedia.org.
College football, 2026 season
Nerd shit for
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The 12-team field if the season ended today.
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2026
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About
Sources and methods
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
Where the data comes from
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
How we turn it into projections
- Projected score. Each team's SP+ offense, plus how far the opponent's SP+ defense is from average, plus special teams. The home team gets half of a 2.5-point home edge added and the visitor half subtracted.
- Win chance. The projected margin turned into a probability, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A 0-point margin is 50%; 14 points is about 84%.
- The three ratings. SP+ is built from every play this season. PRIME is a possession-efficiency rating. Elo uses only final scores and carries over from year to year, with 55 Elo points of home edge.
- The numbers' pick. The team at least two of the three ratings favor, with our confidence the average of their three win chances for that team. On the game cards, a pick is a lock when all three favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more, a coin flip when it's under 55%, and a lean otherwise. Injuries can drop the tier: each key player out counts by what he does for his team (a starting quarterback is 2 points, the feature back or top receiver half a point, doubtful counts half), the other side's injuries offset, and 1 point drops a tier, 2 points two. The game page shows it as an injury alert. Nobody overrides the numbers' pick.
- CFB Charts Top 25. SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each converted to a common scale and averaged.
- Playoff picture. The 2026-27 rules: automatic bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions (the current conference leader stands in until the title games) and for the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12. The rest are at-large teams by the chosen rating, and all 12 are seeded straight by that rating, so the top four get the byes. Once the committee's rankings are out (first release Tuesday, Nov. 3), they become the default ranking.
- Missing data. When a team's play-by-play is clearly incomplete (fewer than 45 offensive plays a game), we hide its offense stats instead of showing bad numbers.
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Glossary
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
Ratings and advanced stats
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
- SP+
- Bill Connelly's rating, built from play-by-play efficiency and explosiveness and adjusted for who each team played. The number is how many points better than an average FBS team a team is on a neutral field. SP+ 20 beats SP+ 10 by about 10.
- PRIME
- A rating built possession by possession: how well a team turns drives into points and keeps opponents from doing the same, adjusted for opponents. Zero is an average FBS team.
- Elo
- A results-only rating. Every team has a number, 1500 is average, and the winner takes points from the loser after every game. Beat a great team and you take a lot. Beat a bad one and you take a few. It carries part of last season over, so it's slow to catch a team that changed.
- Strength of record
- How impressive a record is, given who a team played: how many more games it won than an average team would have against the same schedule. It grades the resume. SP+ and PRIME grade how good the team is.
- Strength of schedule
- How hard a team's opponents have been so far.
- Opponent-adjusted
- Corrected for who a team played. Hanging 50 on an FCS team counts for less than hanging 30 on Georgia.
- EPA (expected points added)
- Every down, distance and spot on the field is worth some number of points on average. 1st and 10 at the opponent's 20 is worth a lot more than 3rd and 15 at your own 10. EPA is how much one play changed that number. A 50-yard bomb is a big plus. A pick-six is a very big minus.
- EPA per play
- A team's average EPA across all its plays. For an offense, above zero means it adds points and higher is better. For a defense, lower is better.
- Success rate
- The share of plays that keep an offense on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% of them on 2nd, all of them on 3rd and 4th. A 4-yard run on 1st and 10 is a success. A 4-yard run on 3rd and 6 isn't.
- Explosive play rate
- The share of plays that go for a run of 12 or more yards or a completion of 16 or more.
- Yards per play
- Total yards divided by plays: runs, passes and sacks.
- Sack rate
- Sacks divided by dropbacks. For an offense, lower is better. For a pass rush, higher is better.
- Turnover margin
- Takeaways (interceptions and fumbles recovered) minus giveaways (interceptions thrown and fumbles lost).
- RECEIPTS
- Record Explained: Coaching, Experience, Incoming talent, Pure luck and Toughness of Schedule. Where a team's wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. The record above or below .500 gets split four ways that add up to the real record: schedule (what an average team would win against that schedule), roster (the wins its talent and returning starters are worth on paper), coach (wins from playing better or worse than that roster) and luck (actual wins against the wins its SP+ says it should have). On team pages and in two charts.
- Schedule, Roster, Coach and Luck RECEIPTS
- The four parts of RECEIPTS. Schedule: what an average team would win against that schedule, minus .500. Roster: the extra wins from a roster this good on paper (247Sports talent and returning production). Coach: wins from playing better or worse than that roster should. Luck: actual wins against the wins SP+ expects. Recruiting rankings undersell the service academies, so their coaches get extra credit.
- Luck watch
- A tag for a team whose Luck RECEIPTS is 1.5 wins or more either way: "Lucky +2.4" or "Unlucky −1.6." Its record runs ahead of (or behind) how it's played, and lines and polls often follow records.
- Expected wins
- The wins a team should have, adding up its win chance in every game it played. Winning more than that usually means a lot of close wins, and close wins are mostly luck.
- Talent composite and blue-chip ratio
- 247Sports' score for a roster, built from every player's recruiting rating, with the best players counting most. The blue-chip ratio is the share of the roster that were 4- or 5-star recruits.
How we pick
How the picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
- Projected score
- Each team's SP+ offense, adjusted for how good the other team's defense is, plus special teams. The home team gets 2.5 points of home edge, split between the two scores.
- Win chance
- The projected margin turned into a percentage, assuming games usually land within about 14 points of the projection. A tie projection is 50%. A 14-point favorite is about 84%.
- The numbers' pick
- The team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The confidence is the average of their three win chances. Nobody overrides it.
- Lock, Lean, Coin flip and Stay away
- How sure the numbers are about a straight-up pick. Lock: SP+, PRIME and Elo all favor the same team and the average win chance is 80% or more. Lean: the ratings favor the team, but not that strongly or not all three. Coin flip: the average win chance is under 55%. Stay away: injuries take the pick down. Key players count by what they do for the team: a starting quarterback out is 2 points, the feature back, top receiver or top pass rusher half a point, the No. 2 receiver or playmaker a quarter, and a short-handed line or secondary half a point. Doubtful counts half. When the picked team's points, minus the other side's, reach 1, the pick drops a tier (a Lock to a Lean, a Lean or Coin flip to Stay away); at 2 it drops two.
- Game of the week
- The one game to watch on Saturday: the best matchup on the board, by how good both teams are and how close the projection is.
- CFB Charts Top 25
- SP+, PRIME and strength of record, each put on the same scale and averaged. Nobody votes.
- Retro
- Monday's look back: every final score against what we projected, what we got right and what we got wrong.
Conferences and the playoff
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
- FBS and FCS
- FBS is the top level of college football: the 138 teams on this site. FCS is the level below. When an FBS team plays an FCS team, it's usually a paid tune-up.
- Power 4
- The SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC. Notre Dame isn't in a conference, but we count it with the Power 4 wherever that matters.
- Group of 6
- Everyone else in FBS: the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt, plus the independents other than Notre Dame. The highest-ranked team from those six conferences gets an automatic playoff bid.
- Automatic bid
- A guaranteed playoff spot. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get one, and so does the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 and Sun Belt.
- At-large
- A playoff spot earned by ranking high enough without an automatic bid. Notre Dame is in if it's in the top 12.
- First-round bye
- Seeds 1 through 4 skip the first round. Seeds 5 through 12 play first-round games at the higher seed's stadium.
Nothing matches that. Try a shorter word.
For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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About
About College Football Charts
College Football Charts is a college football stats site: a pick for every FBS game, head to heads across 75+ stats, the playoff picture, and charts you can bend to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
What's here
Every FBS team, player and game gets its own page, with national ranks, the ratings people argue about (SP+, PRIME and Elo) and charts you can share. The rivalry pages carry the series history. The tools let you build your own Top 25, your own 12-team playoff field and your own charts.
Who makes the picks
The numbers. Every pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor, and nobody overrides them. When they miss, the retro says so and by how much.
Where the numbers come from
We don't make the ratings; we put them side by side. SP+ is Bill Connelly's. SUPLEX is Nate Tice's. The play-by-play comes from CollegeFootballData.com and cfbfastR. The full list, and how we turn it into picks, is on Sources and methods.
What this isn't
Betting advice. The line shows up because it's part of the story of a game, not because we want you to bet it.
Get in touch
Questions, a stat you want to see, a bug, or a partnership idea: send us a note. The newsletter has the picks and the retro every week.
About
Contact
Questions, ideas, bugs, partnerships: they all come here.
We use what you send only to answer it. See the privacy policy.
- 12 teams, under the 2026-27 rules. Automatic bids go to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, and to the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt. Until the title games, each conference's current leader stands in as its champion.
- Notre Dame is in if you rank it in your top 12. Everyone else is at-large.
- Seeds go straight by your order. Seeds 1 to 4 get first-round byes; 5 to 12 play first-round games at the higher seed.
- The builder won't let you remove a Power 4 champion or your last team from outside the Power 4.
Drag a team by its handle (⋮⋮) to reseed it; with a keyboard, focus the handle and use the up and down arrow keys. Pick a different team from a row's menu to swap it in. Your field is saved in this browser.
Your 12 seeds
Your bracket
What's in it
- Thursday: the picks. The week's best games, the upset we like, projected scores for the big ones, and charts worth arguing about.
- Monday: the retro. How the picks did, the record so far, what we got wrong and why.
- Every issue, on the site. Past issues will live here, so you can link anyone to them.
The first issue is coming soon.
Edit quadrant labels
Up to 40 characters each. Leave one blank to keep ours. Your labels ride along in the link, the embed and the share image.
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What this shows
Beating the trend
Trailing the trend
Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
This week
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Last week
All-time picks record
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? The numbers' pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. The numbers' and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Week by week
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
Over time
Edit this chart
What this shows
Rank
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What this shows
Compare
Edit quadrant labels
Up to 40 characters each. Leave one blank to keep ours. Your labels ride along in the link, the embed and the share image.
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What this shows
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Conference depth
Projected bracket
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The field and the bubble
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How the field is built
- 12 teams. Five get in automatically: the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions, plus the highest-ranked team from the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac-12 or Sun Belt (champion or not).
- Notre Dame is in if it ranks in the top 12.
- At-large. The remaining spots go to the highest-ranked teams left. If an automatic qualifier ranks outside the top 12, it takes the last at-large spot.
- Seeding follows the ranking, as it has since 2025. A conference champion isn't guaranteed a bye.
- Champions mid-season. "Current conference leader" uses the best conference record so far, with ties broken by the chosen rating. "Highest-rated team" picks the best-rated team in each conference instead.
- Composite averages SP+, PRIME and strength of record after putting each on a common scale.
- This is a projection from today's numbers. The real field is chosen by a committee on Dec. 6, after conference title games.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.