This week's picks

Kansas vs. TCU Prediction and Pick, Week 9 2026

College Football Charts
Data updatedOct 31, 2026
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Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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Kansas at TCU

Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, Amon G. Carter Stadium.

The numbers say: TCU, 63% to win.

The game

KickoffSat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET
TVFS1
WhereAmon G. Carter Stadium
Weather70°, light rain, wind 5 mph
LineTCU −6.5, total 45.5
Line movementOpened TCU −4.5; moved 2 points toward TCU. Total opened 48.5, down 3.
SeriesTCU leads 27–9–4
Last meetingTCU 38–27 in 2024

The ratings and the line

MarginWin chanceTotal
SP+TCU by 8.372%43
PRIMETCU by 2.256%
EloTCU59%
The lineTCU −6.5, opened −4.545.5, opened 48.5

Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Fri, Oct 30, 7:43 PM ET.

Who wins, Kansas or TCU?

The numbers say: TCU. 62% chance to win

Which matchups decide Kansas vs. TCU?

All three ratings favor TCU, by 2.2 to 8.3 points. TCU's best matchup is its pass defense, 11th in EPA per pass allowed, against Kansas' passing game at 117th. Kansas' way back in is its run-stopping front, 43rd in line yards allowed per carry, against TCU's offensive line at 132nd. We left out the edges built on Payne and Jalen Dupree, who are out.

Kansas with the ball

TCU with the ball

Who's out for Kansas and TCU?

Kansas

TCU

How Kansas and TCU compare, in charts

Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Kansas and TCU are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How Kansas' and TCU's players compare

The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.

How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Kansas and TCU?

On a neutral field, SP+ has TCU 5.8 points better (41st to 60th). PRIME has Kansas by 0.3 instead. The two ratings split on Kansas' defense: 57th in SP+, 27th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has TCU ahead (49th to 51st).

KansasTCU
SP+ overall2.8 (60th)8.6 (41st)
SP+ offense27.5 (61st)25.3 (83rd)
SP+ defense25.0 (57th)16.5 (11th)
SP+ special teams0.3 (28th)-0.1 (80th)
PRIME net4.6 (47th)4.3 (49th)
PRIME offense0.38 (60th)-5.22 (106th)
PRIME defense4.88 (27th)8.65 (14th)
PRIME SOS0.7 (39th)0.6 (40th)
PRIME SOR-0.4 (80th)-0.4 (80th)
Elo1595 (51st)1601 (49th)

Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.

Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?

Kansas' offense ranks 60th in adjusted EPA per play, and the TCU defense it faces ranks 6th in EPA per play allowed. TCU's offense ranks 114th against Kansas' 46th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Kansas' offensive line in the run game: 18th in adjusted line yards per carry, against TCU's 53rd-ranked defense.

KansasTCU
EPA per play (adjusted)+0.12 (60th)+0.04 (114th)
EPA per pass (adjusted)+0.12 (117th)+0.19 (73rd)
EPA per rush (adjusted)+0.14 (13th)−0.06 (135th)
Success rate (adjusted)43.0% (54th)38.8% (106th)
Success rate, standard downs (adjusted)49.8% (29th)46.1% (79th)
Success rate, passing downs (adjusted)28.3% (113th)27.8% (116th)
Explosiveness (adjusted)0.97 (12th)0.91 (125th)
Line yards per carry (adjusted)3.13 (18th)2.67 (132nd)
Open-field yards per carry (adjusted)1.13 (69th)0.96 (120th)
EPA per play allowed (adjusted)+0.07 (46th)−0.02 (6th)
EPA per pass allowed (adjusted)+0.18 (62nd)+0.09 (11th)
EPA per rush allowed (adjusted)+0.06 (59th)−0.02 (10th)
Success rate allowed (adjusted)39.8% (42nd)36.1% (11th)
Explosiveness allowed (adjusted)0.97 (120th)0.90 (15th)
Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted)2.88 (43rd)2.90 (53rd)
Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted)1.37 (123rd)0.97 (22nd)

The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.

Who's more efficient, Kansas or TCU?

Kansas is better running (34th in EPA per rush) than throwing (113th). TCU's run defense ranks 7th, so the defense has the better of it. TCU is better throwing (58th in EPA per pass) than running (130th). Kansas' pass defense ranks 59th.

KansasTCU
EPA per play+0.12 (76th)+0.08 (96th)
EPA per pass+0.08 (113th)+0.25 (58th)
EPA per rush+0.17 (34th)−0.11 (130th)
EPA per 3rd-down play+0.52 (50th)+0.47 (64th)
EPA per play allowed+0.05 (51st)−0.06 (9th)
EPA per pass allowed+0.14 (59th)+0.03 (19th)
EPA per rush allowed+0.04 (61st)−0.13 (7th)
EPA per 3rd-down play allowed+0.35 (52nd)+0.21 (18th)

Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.

Who scores more, Kansas or TCU?

Kansas outscores FBS opponents by 7.0 a game, and TCU by 9.5. Kansas' offense ranks 55th in scoring, and the TCU defense it faces ranks 6th in points allowed. TCU's offense ranks 101st against Kansas' 68th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face.

KansasTCU
Points scored31.0 (55th)23.4 (101st)
Points allowed24.0 (68th)13.9 (6th)

Per game, FBS opponents only.

Which offense has the edge?

Kansas has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 11th, against a defense ranked 9th in explosive plays allowed. TCU has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 46th, against a defense ranked 63rd in 3rd down conversions allowed.

KansasTCU
Pass yards / game235.9 (63rd)297.7 (11th)
Rush yards / game212.4 (21st)125.1 (121st)
Yards per play6.28 (59th)6.46 (45th)
Yards per carry5.45 (48th)4.21 (122nd)
Yards per attempt7.64 (69th)9.06 (20th)
Completion %51.8% (121st)70.4% (29th)
Success rate43.0% (78th)44.8% (59th)
Explosive play rate16.2% (11th)10.5% (111th)
3rd down conversion34.3% (108th)44.1% (46th)
Sack rate (taken)4.9% (55th)8.0% (111th)
INT rate (thrown)3.2% (102nd)2.6% (83rd)
SUPLEX57.1% (60th)52.3% (94th)

Per game and per play, from play-by-play.

Which defense has the edge?

Kansas' defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 52nd in SUPLEX allowed, and TCU's offense is middle of the pack in SUPLEX (94th). TCU's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 19th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Kansas' offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (108th). That's a mismatch.

KansasTCU
Pass yards allowed / game186.0 (29th)160.3 (10th)
Rush yards allowed / game169.6 (95th)116.0 (21st)
Yards per play allowed6.00 (82nd)4.56 (5th)
Yards per carry allowed5.16 (92nd)3.90 (14th)
Yards per attempt allowed7.44 (78th)5.61 (13th)
Success rate allowed39.8% (55th)32.8% (5th)
Explosive plays allowed11.8% (83rd)7.8% (9th)
3rd downs allowed37.9% (63rd)30.9% (19th)
Sack rate (generated)5.4% (84th)7.4% (40th)
INT rate (generated)1.1% (119th)2.0% (83rd)
SUPLEX allowed51.7% (52nd)42.4% (6th)

What opponents managed against them.

Who wins up front?

Kansas has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: offensive line, where Kansas ranks 25th and TCU 127th.

KansasTCU
Big Uglies: offensive line56.0 (25th)40.7 (127th)
Big Uglies: defensive front53.2 (44th)52.9 (46th)
Line yards per carry3.31 (24th)2.64 (126th)
Line yards allowed per carry2.64 (25th)2.71 (36th)
Second-level yards per carry1.19 (36th)0.83 (127th)
Open-field yards per carry0.86 (107th)0.88 (106th)
Stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line)13.7% (16th)20.2% (103rd)
Stuff rate (defense)24.9% (12th)18.9% (69th)
Power success (short yardage)69.2% (90th)76.0% (45th)
Power success allowed77.8% (109th)67.9% (53rd)
Front-seven havoc allowed8.6% (53rd)12.6% (130th)
Front-seven havoc11.5% (28th)10.8% (39th)

The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.

Who wins the turnover battle?

Neither team has a real turnover edge: Kansas is −0.6 a game and TCU −0.4. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Kansas' takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.0 a game).

KansasTCU
Interceptions thrown / game1.00 (105th)0.86 (84th)
Fumbles lost / game0.57 (74th)0.86 (116th)
Giveaways / game1.57 (107th)1.71 (117th)
Interceptions / game0.29 (119th)0.57 (85th)
Fumbles recovered / game0.71 (24th)0.71 (24th)
Takeaways / game1.00 (88th)1.29 (56th)
Turnover margin / game-0.6 (108th)-0.4 (100th)

Per game, from play-by-play.

Which team has more talent?

TCU has the more talented roster (39th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kansas is 62nd). TCU also plays further above its talent: +4.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Kansas' +1.4.

KansasTCU
Talent composite684.5 (62nd)730.8 (39th)
Blue-chip ratio10.3% (69th)20.7% (40th)
Players on roster113 (51st)116 (34th)
Rated by 247Sports78 (70th)87 (35th)
5-star players0 (37th)0 (37th)
4-star players8 (62nd)18 (37th)
3-star players67 (45th)68 (37th)
Below 3-star3 (53rd)1 (86th)
2026 transfers in32 (24th)12 (124th)
Transfer share41.0% (29th)13.8% (126th)
SP+ vs. talent+1.4 (56th)+4.3 (41st)
Returning production18.1% (102nd)22.4% (95th)
Returning passing production-1.5% (122nd)11.0% (80th)
Returning rushing production14.5% (100th)31.3% (79th)
Returning receiving production33.1% (75th)29.1% (83rd)
2026 recruiting class (national rank)61 (61st)47 (47th)
Recruiting rank, last four classes62.2 (65th)31.5 (26th)

247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.

Which roster costs more?

Kansas' roster is valued at $20.2M, TCU's at $20.1M. Dollar for dollar, TCU plays better: +3.3 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −2.6 for Kansas.

KansasTCU
Roster value$20.2M (50th)$20.1M (51st)
Roster cost per win$6.7M (52nd)$6.7M (51st)
Projected wins per $1M0.26 (40th)0.33 (24th)
SP+ vs. payroll-2.6 (45th)+3.3 (22nd)

NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.

Where did each team's wins come from?

Kansas is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−0.5). TCU is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.6). TCU's record is 1.6 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.

KansasTCU
RECEIPTS (total)-0.5 (89th)-0.5 (89th)
Schedule RECEIPTS-0.3 (102nd)-0.0 (91st)
Roster RECEIPTS+0.1 (63rd)+0.4 (42nd)
Coach RECEIPTS+0.2 (61st)+0.7 (37th)
Luck RECEIPTS-0.5 (98th)-1.6 (136th)

Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.

Kansas at TCU: questions people ask

Kansas vs. TCU prediction: who will win?

The numbers pick TCU, 62% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. TCU's best matchup is its pass defense, 11th in EPA per pass allowed, against Kansas' passing game at 117th.

Where can I watch Kansas vs. TCU, and what time is it?

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET at Amon G. Carter Stadium. It's on FS1.

What's the projected score of Kansas vs. TCU?

SP+ projects TCU 26–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.

What's the line for Kansas at TCU?

DraftKings has TCU −6.5, total 45.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.

What's the Kansas vs. TCU series history?

TCU leads 27–9–4. Last meeting: TCU won 38–27 in 2024.

Who are the players to watch in Kansas vs. TCU?

Kansas: Isaiah Marshall (1,488 passing yards), Dylan Edwards (512 rushing yards) and Nik McMillan (432 receiving yards). TCU: Jaden Craig (2,084 passing yards), Payne (382 rushing yards) and Ed Small (522 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 24, 2026.

Who are the quarterbacks in Kansas at TCU?

Kansas' is Isaiah Marshall (1,488 passing yards this season); TCU's is Jaden Craig (2,084 passing yards this season).

More on this game

Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.

Kansas and TCU: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.