RECEIPTS
Kentucky ranks first in FBS in luck RECEIPTS at +2.4, ahead of Stanford (+1.7) and UTSA (+1.7). The middle of FBS is about 0.0, and Navy is last of 138 (-2.0).
Luck RECEIPTS: actual wins minus the wins the team's SP+ says it should have. Close games and bounces. It tends to even out. 1.5 or more either way gets a Luck watch tag.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Games through Oct 31, 2026. Ranks are among the 138 FBS teams with the number. Download the table (CSV).
| Rank | Team | Conference | Luck RECEIPTS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kentucky | SEC | +2.4 |
| 2 | Stanford | ACC | +1.7 |
| 3 | UTSA | American Athletic | +1.7 |
| 4 | UCLA | Big Ten | +1.5 |
| 5 | North Texas | American Athletic | +1.4 |
| 6 | Louisiana Tech | Sun Belt | +1.4 |
| 7 | West Virginia | Big 12 | +1.4 |
| 8 | Wake Forest | ACC | +1.2 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | SEC | +1.1 |
| 10 | Mississippi State | SEC | +1.1 |
| 11 | Colorado | Big 12 | +1.0 |
| 11 | Middle Tennessee | Conference USA | +1.0 |
| 13 | Syracuse | ACC | +1.0 |
| 14 | Utah | Big 12 | +1.0 |
| 15 | Buffalo | Mid-American | +0.9 |
| 15 | Iowa State | Big 12 | +0.9 |
| 15 | Minnesota | Big Ten | +0.9 |
| 15 | UAB | American Athletic | +0.9 |
| 19 | Florida | SEC | +0.9 |
| 20 | Air Force | Mountain West | +0.9 |
| 20 | Boise State | Pac-12 | +0.9 |
| 20 | Marshall | Sun Belt | +0.9 |
| 23 | BYU | Big 12 | +0.9 |
| 24 | San Diego State | Pac-12 | +0.9 |
| 24 | Tulane | American Athletic | +0.9 |
| 26 | USC | Big Ten | +0.9 |
| 27 | Houston | Big 12 | +0.9 |
| 28 | Clemson | ACC | +0.8 |
| 29 | Auburn | SEC | +0.8 |
| 30 | Jacksonville State | Conference USA | +0.8 |
| 31 | Boston College | ACC | +0.8 |
| 32 | Iowa | Big Ten | +0.7 |
| 33 | North Carolina | ACC | +0.7 |
| 34 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | +0.6 |
| 35 | California | ACC | +0.6 |
| 36 | Miami | ACC | +0.6 |
| 37 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | +0.6 |
| 38 | Arizona State | Big 12 | +0.5 |
| 39 | Delaware | Conference USA | +0.4 |
| 40 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | +0.4 |
| 41 | Indiana | Big Ten | +0.4 |
| 42 | UNLV | Mountain West | +0.4 |
| 43 | App State | Sun Belt | +0.3 |
| 43 | Central Michigan | Mid-American | +0.3 |
| 43 | Purdue | Big Ten | +0.3 |
| 46 | New Mexico | Mountain West | +0.3 |
| 46 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | +0.3 |
| 48 | Arkansas | SEC | +0.3 |
| 48 | San José State | Mountain West | +0.3 |
| 48 | Western Michigan | Mid-American | +0.3 |
| 51 | Florida Atlantic | American Athletic | +0.3 |
| 51 | Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | +0.3 |
| 51 | South Carolina | SEC | +0.3 |
| 54 | Ball State | Mid-American | +0.3 |
| 54 | Wyoming | Mountain West | +0.3 |
| 56 | Duke | ACC | +0.2 |
| 57 | UCF | Big 12 | +0.2 |
| 58 | Southern Miss | Sun Belt | +0.2 |
| 59 | Liberty | Conference USA | +0.2 |
| 60 | Eastern Michigan | Mid-American | +0.1 |
| 60 | Texas | SEC | +0.1 |
| 62 | Northwestern | Big Ten | +0.1 |
| 63 | Illinois | Big Ten | +0.1 |
| 64 | Missouri | SEC | +0.1 |
| 65 | Alabama | SEC | +0.1 |
| 66 | Miami (OH) | Mid-American | +0.0 |
| 67 | Oklahoma | SEC | +0.0 |
| 68 | Pittsburgh | ACC | +0.0 |
| 69 | Ohio | Mid-American | 0.0 |
| 70 | Army | American Athletic | -0.0 |
| 70 | Sacramento State | Mid-American | -0.0 |
| 72 | Troy | Sun Belt | -0.1 |
| 73 | Kent State | Mid-American | -0.1 |
| 74 | Missouri State | Conference USA | -0.1 |
| 75 | New Mexico State | Conference USA | -0.1 |
| 76 | Michigan State | Big Ten | -0.1 |
| 77 | Colorado State | Pac-12 | -0.1 |
| 77 | Utah State | Pac-12 | -0.1 |
| 79 | Memphis | American Athletic | -0.2 |
| 80 | Tennessee | SEC | -0.2 |
| 81 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | -0.2 |
| 81 | South Florida | American Athletic | -0.2 |
| 83 | Fresno State | Pac-12 | -0.2 |
| 83 | Virginia Tech | ACC | -0.2 |
| 85 | NC State | ACC | -0.3 |
| 86 | Arizona | Big 12 | -0.3 |
| 86 | Georgia | SEC | -0.3 |
| 88 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | -0.3 |
| 89 | UTEP | Mountain West | -0.3 |
| 90 | Charlotte | American Athletic | -0.3 |
| 91 | Notre Dame | Independents | -0.4 |
| 92 | Washington | Big Ten | -0.4 |
| 93 | Michigan | Big Ten | -0.4 |
| 94 | North Dakota State | Mountain West | -0.4 |
| 95 | Oregon | Big Ten | -0.4 |
| 96 | Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | -0.5 |
| 97 | Vanderbilt | SEC | -0.5 |
| 98 | Toledo | Mid-American | -0.5 |
| 99 | SMU | ACC | -0.5 |
| 100 | Baylor | Big 12 | -0.6 |
| 101 | Tulsa | American Athletic | -0.6 |
| 102 | East Carolina | American Athletic | -0.6 |
| 102 | Western Kentucky | Conference USA | -0.6 |
| 104 | Texas A&M | SEC | -0.7 |
| 105 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | -0.7 |
| 106 | Old Dominion | Sun Belt | -0.7 |
| 107 | Texas State | Pac-12 | -0.7 |
| 108 | Kansas | Big 12 | -0.8 |
| 108 | Massachusetts | Mid-American | -0.8 |
| 110 | Rutgers | Big Ten | -0.8 |
| 111 | Ohio State | Big Ten | -0.8 |
| 112 | Louisville | ACC | -0.8 |
| 113 | Louisiana | Sun Belt | -0.8 |
| 113 | Maryland | Big Ten | -0.8 |
| 115 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | -0.9 |
| 116 | Florida State | ACC | -0.9 |
| 117 | UL Monroe | Sun Belt | -0.9 |
| 118 | Washington State | Pac-12 | -0.9 |
| 119 | Akron | Mid-American | -0.9 |
| 120 | James Madison | Sun Belt | -1.0 |
| 121 | Florida International | Conference USA | -1.0 |
| 121 | Kennesaw State | Conference USA | -1.0 |
| 123 | Rice | American Athletic | -1.1 |
| 124 | Bowling Green | Mid-American | -1.1 |
| 125 | Nebraska | Big Ten | -1.1 |
| 126 | LSU | SEC | -1.2 |
| 127 | Penn State | Big Ten | -1.3 |
| 128 | TCU | Big 12 | -1.4 |
| 129 | Northern Illinois | Mountain West | -1.4 |
| 130 | Temple | American Athletic | -1.4 |
| 131 | Virginia | ACC | -1.6 |
| 132 | Hawai'i | Mountain West | -1.6 |
| 133 | Sam Houston | Conference USA | -1.6 |
| 134 | UConn | Independents | -1.7 |
| 135 | Georgia Tech | ACC | -1.8 |
| 136 | Kansas State | Big 12 | -1.9 |
| 137 | Nevada | Mountain West | -1.9 |
| 138 | Navy | American Athletic | -2.0 |
SEC: Kentucky (+2.4, 1st); ACC: Stanford (+1.7, 2nd); American Athletic: UTSA (+1.7, 3rd); Big Ten: UCLA (+1.5, 4th); Sun Belt: Louisiana Tech (+1.4, 6th); Big 12: West Virginia (+1.4, 7th); Conference USA: Middle Tennessee (+1.0, 11th); Mid-American: Buffalo (+0.9, 15th); Mountain West: Air Force (+0.9, 20th); Pac-12: Boise State (+0.9, 20th); Independents: Notre Dame (-0.4, 91st).