Boise State vs. Colorado State Prediction, Week 10 2026
92% chance to win
- Boise State should run it. Boise State is top-10 (2nd) in EPA per rush, and Colorado State is bottom-20 (137th) in EPA per rush allowed.
- Boise State's offense should move it. Boise State is top-10 (1st) in EPA per play, and Colorado State is bottom-20 (134th) in EPA per play allowed.
Boise State at Colorado State
Projected score: Boise State 44, Colorado State 28 (total 72).SP+: Boise State by 16.8, 88% chance to win.PRIME: Boise State by 20.0.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM ET
- TV
- USA Net
- Where
- Canvas Stadium
- Series
- Boise State leads 13–1
- Last meeting
- Boise State 49–21 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Boise State by 16.8 | 88% | 72 |
| PRIME | Boise State by 20.0 | 92% | |
| Elo | Boise State | 95% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Boise State or Colorado State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Boise State vs. Colorado State?
All three ratings favor Boise State, by 16.8 to 20.0 points, and it isn't close. Boise State's best matchup is its run game, 2nd in EPA per rush, against Colorado State's run defense at 137th. Colorado State's way back in is its offense, 29th in yards per play, against Boise State's defense at 135th.
Boise State with the ball
Colorado State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Boise State and Colorado State?
Boise State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Colorado State
- Ksaan Farrar (QB), hasn't played since Week 7 (148 pass attempts in 5 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Boise State and Colorado State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Boise State and Colorado State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Boise State's and Colorado State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsBoise State 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Boise State and Colorado State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Boise State 19.3 points better (29th to 103rd). PRIME also has Boise State ahead, by 22.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has Boise State ahead (31st to 125th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedBoise State 16–0
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Boise State's offense ranks 1st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Colorado State defense it faces ranks 134th in EPA per play allowed. Colorado State's offense ranks 39th against Boise State's 47th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Boise State's offense against Colorado State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Boise State's run game: 2nd in adjusted EPA per rush, against Colorado State's 137th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Colorado State's offense falls from 11th to 39th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPABoise State 6–2
Who's more efficient, Boise State or Colorado State?
Boise State is about as good throwing (17th in EPA per pass) as running (5th). Colorado State is better running (4th in EPA per rush) than throwing (24th). Boise State's run defense ranks 84th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Boise State has the edge: its offense ranks 43rd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 135th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringBoise State 2–0
Who scores more, Boise State or Colorado State?
Boise State outscores FBS opponents by 12.3 a game, and Colorado State is outscored by 6.9. Boise State's offense ranks 21st in scoring, and the Colorado State defense it faces ranks 138th in points allowed. Colorado State's offense ranks 25th against Boise State's 59th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseColorado State 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Boise State's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 16th in yards per carry, and Colorado State's defense ranks 138th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Colorado State's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 14th in yards per carry, and Boise State's defense ranks 83rd in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseBoise State 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontBoise State 10–2
Who wins up front?
Boise State has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where Boise State ranks 7th and Colorado State 137th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversColorado State 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Colorado State is +1.1 in turnover margin a game and Boise State is +0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Colorado State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentBoise State 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Boise State has the more talented roster (74th in the 247Sports talent composite; Colorado State is 75th). Boise State also plays further above its talent: +12.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Colorado State's −7.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Money
Which roster costs more?
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSBoise State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Boise State is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.6). Colorado State is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.3). Boise State's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Boise State at Colorado State: questions people ask
Boise State vs. Colorado State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Boise State, 92% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Boise State's best matchup is its run game, 2nd in EPA per rush, against Colorado State's run defense at 137th.
Where can I watch Boise State vs. Colorado State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM ET at Canvas Stadium. It's on USA Net.
What's the projected score of Boise State vs. Colorado State?
SP+ projects Boise State 44–28. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Boise State vs. Colorado State series history?
Boise State leads 13–1. Last meeting: Boise State won 49–21 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Boise State vs. Colorado State?
Boise State: Maddux Madsen (1,455 passing yards), Dylan Riley (954 rushing yards) and Rasean Jones (428 receiving yards). Colorado State: Hauss Hejny (1,156 passing yards), Durell Robinson (497 rushing yards) and Reginald Vick Jr (425 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Boise State at Colorado State?
Boise State's is Maddux Madsen (1,455 passing yards this season); Colorado State's is Hauss Hejny (1,156 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Boise State at Colorado State?
Colorado State: Ksaan Farrar (QB) hasn't played since Week 7.
Keep going
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.