Texas State vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayOregon State69% chance to win
- Oregon State should keep its quarterback clean. Oregon State is top-25 (12th) in sacks allowed per dropback, and Texas State is bottom-20 (136th) in sack rate.
- Oregon State's offense should move it. Oregon State is top-10 (7th) in points per game, and Texas State is bottom-20 (124th) in points allowed.
Texas State at Oregon State
Projected score: Texas State 31, Oregon State 38 (total 69).SP+: Oregon State by 7.6, 71% chance to win.PRIME: Oregon State by 8.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 10:30 PM ET
- TV
- The CW Network
- Where
- Reser Stadium
- Series
- First meeting
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Oregon State by 7.6 | 71% | 69 |
| PRIME | Oregon State by 8.6 | 73% | |
| Elo | Oregon State | 64% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Texas State or Oregon State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Texas State vs. Oregon State?
All three ratings favor Oregon State, by 7.6 to 8.6 points. Oregon State's best matchup is its pass protection, 12th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Texas State's pass rush at 136th. Texas State's way back in is its 3rd down offense, 4th in 3rd down conversion, against Oregon State's 3rd down defense at 97th.
Texas State with the ball
Oregon State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Texas State and Oregon State?
Texas State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Oregon State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Texas State and Oregon State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Texas State and Oregon State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Texas State's and Oregon State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsOregon State 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Texas State and Oregon State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Oregon State 5.1 points better (50th to 65th). PRIME also has Oregon State ahead, by 6.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Oregon State ahead (46th to 56th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedOregon State 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Texas State's offense ranks 36th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Oregon State defense it faces ranks 73rd in EPA per play allowed. Oregon State's offense ranks 15th against Texas State's 105th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Oregon State's passing game: 14th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Texas State's 114th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Texas State's offense falls from 16th to 36th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAOregon State 5–3
Who's more efficient, Texas State or Oregon State?
Texas State is about as good throwing (22nd in EPA per pass) as running (8th). Oregon State is about as good throwing (17th in EPA per pass) as running (16th). On third down, Oregon State has the edge: its offense ranks 25th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 109th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringOregon State 2–0
Who scores more, Texas State or Oregon State?
Texas State outscores FBS opponents by 6.1 a game, and Oregon State by 15.1. Texas State's offense ranks 13th in scoring, and the Oregon State defense it faces ranks 71st in points allowed. Oregon State's offense ranks 7th against Texas State's 124th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseOregon State 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Texas State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 4th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Oregon State's defense ranks 97th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Oregon State's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 8th in SUPLEX, and Texas State's defense ranks 90th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseOregon State 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Texas State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 13th in yards per carry allowed, and Oregon State's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (55th). Oregon State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 35th in interception rate, and Texas State's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (77th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontEven 6–6
Who wins up front?
They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where Texas State ranks 10th and Oregon State 110th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversOregon State 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Oregon State is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Texas State is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 7-point edge for Oregon State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentOregon State 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Oregon State has the more talented roster (76th in the 247Sports talent composite; Texas State is 83rd). Oregon State also plays further above its talent: +8.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Texas State's +4.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Money
Which roster costs more?
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSOregon State 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
Texas State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−0.7). Oregon State is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+0.9).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Texas State at Oregon State: questions people ask
Texas State vs. Oregon State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Oregon State, 69% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Oregon State's best matchup is its pass protection, 12th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Texas State's pass rush at 136th.
Where can I watch Texas State vs. Oregon State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 10:30 PM ET at Reser Stadium. It's on The CW Network.
What's the projected score of Texas State vs. Oregon State?
SP+ projects Oregon State 38–31. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Texas State vs. Oregon State series history?
This is the first meeting.
Who are the players to watch in Texas State vs. Oregon State?
Texas State: Brad Jackson (1,630 passing yards), Torrance Burgess Jr. (878 rushing yards) and Chris Dawn Jr. (400 receiving yards). Oregon State: Braden Atkinson (2,636 passing yards), AJ Newberry (430 rushing yards) and Jesse Legree (1,042 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Texas State at Oregon State?
Texas State's is Brad Jackson (1,630 passing yards this season); Oregon State's is Braden Atkinson (2,636 passing yards this season).
Keep going
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.