Fresno State vs. Utah State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
63% chance to win
Fresno State at Utah State
Projected score: Fresno State 25, Utah State 15 (total 40).SP+: Fresno State by 9.3, 75% chance to win.PRIME: Utah State by 3.6, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 PM ET
- TV
- USA Net
- Where
- Maverik Stadium
- Series
- Fresno State leads 19–14–1
- Last meeting
- Utah State 28–17 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Fresno State by 9.3 | 75% | 40 |
| PRIME | Utah State by 3.6 | 60% | |
| Elo | Fresno State | 74% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Fresno State or Utah State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Fresno State vs. Utah State?
SP+ and Elo take Fresno State, but PRIME has Utah State by 3.6. Fresno State's best matchup is its ball security, 4th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Utah State's takeaway defense at 126th. Utah State's way back in is its run-stopping front, 26th in line yards allowed per carry, against Fresno State's offensive line at 115th.
Fresno State with the ball
Utah State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Fresno State and Utah State?
Fresno State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Utah State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Fresno State and Utah State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Fresno State and Utah State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Fresno State's and Utah State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsFresno State 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Fresno State and Utah State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Fresno State 11.8 points better (61st to 105th). PRIME has Utah State by 1.1 instead. The two ratings split on Fresno State's defense: 49th in SP+, 99th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Fresno State ahead (42nd to 90th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Fresno State's offense ranks 72nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Utah State defense it faces ranks 23rd in EPA per play allowed. Utah State's offense ranks 118th against Fresno State's 48th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Utah State's backs in the open field: 42nd in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Fresno State's 105th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAUtah State 4–3
Who's more efficient, Fresno State or Utah State?
Fresno State is better throwing (38th in EPA per pass) than running (124th). Utah State's pass defense ranks 37th. Utah State is about as good throwing (130th in EPA per pass) as running (122nd).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringFresno State 2–0
Who scores more, Fresno State or Utah State?
Fresno State outscores FBS opponents by 7.9 a game, and Utah State is outscored by 5.0. Fresno State's offense ranks 68th in scoring, and the Utah State defense it faces ranks 50th in points allowed. Utah State's offense ranks 134th against Fresno State's 40th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseFresno State 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Fresno State has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 65th, against a defense ranked 47th in yards per carry allowed. Utah State's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 83rd in yards per carry, and Fresno State's defense ranks 108th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseUtah State 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Fresno State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 18th in interception rate, and Utah State's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (127th). That's a mismatch. Utah State's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 19th in SUPLEX allowed, and Fresno State's offense is middle of the pack in SUPLEX (83rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontUtah State 8–4
Who wins up front?
Utah State has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where Utah State ranks 38th and Fresno State 82nd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversFresno State 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Fresno State is +1.1 in turnover margin a game and Utah State is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 9-point edge for Fresno State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Fresno State's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.7 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentEven 5–5
Which team has more talent?
Fresno State has the more talented roster (88th in the 247Sports talent composite; Utah State is 123rd). Fresno State also plays further above its talent: +5.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Utah State's −1.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSFresno State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Fresno State is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+0.9). Utah State is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−0.7).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Fresno State at Utah State: questions people ask
Fresno State vs. Utah State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Fresno State, 63% chance to win. SP+ and Elo agree; PRIME has Utah State. Fresno State's best matchup is its ball security, 4th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Utah State's takeaway defense at 126th.
Where can I watch Fresno State vs. Utah State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 PM ET at Maverik Stadium. It's on USA Net.
What's the projected score of Fresno State vs. Utah State?
SP+ projects Fresno State 25–15. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Fresno State vs. Utah State series history?
Fresno State leads 19–14–1. Last meeting: Utah State won 28–17 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Fresno State vs. Utah State?
Fresno State: Jayden Mandal (1,425 passing yards), Rayshon Luke (334 rushing yards) and Josiah Freeman (424 receiving yards). Utah State: Grady Brosterhous (1,139 passing yards), Javen Jacobs (516 rushing yards) and Eli Wood (479 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Fresno State at Utah State?
Fresno State's is Jayden Mandal (1,425 passing yards this season); Utah State's is Grady Brosterhous (1,139 passing yards this season).
Keep going
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.