Air Force vs. Army Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
63% chance to win
- Army should run it. Army is top-10 (4th) in yards per carry, and Air Force is bottom-40 (109th) in yards per carry allowed.
- Army's offensive line should win up front. Army is top-25 (12th) in line yards per carry, and Air Force is bottom-40 (100th) in line yards allowed per carry.
Air Force at Army
Projected score: Air Force 29, Army 33 (total 63).SP+: Army by 4.3, 62% chance to win.PRIME: Army by 1.5.
- Rivalry
- Commander-in-Chief's Trophy
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- CBS
- Where
- Michie Stadium
- Line
- Army −5.5, total 50.5
- Line movement
- Opened Army −6; moved 0.5 points toward Air Force. Total opened 52.5, down 2.
- Series
- Air Force leads 38–21–1
- Last meeting
- Army 20–17 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Army by 4.3 | 62% | 63 |
| PRIME | Army by 1.5 | 54% | |
| Elo | Army | 73% | |
| The line | Army −5.5, opened −6 | 50.5, opened 52.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Air Force or Army?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Air Force vs. Army?
All three ratings favor Army, by 1.5 to 4.3 points. Army's best matchup is its run game, 4th in yards per carry, against Air Force's run defense at 109th. Air Force's way back in is its offensive line, 1st in line yards per carry, against Army's run-stopping front at 128th.
Air Force with the ball
Army with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Air Force and Army?
Air Force
- Liam Szarka (QB), hasn't played since Week 5 (39 pass attempts in 4 games before that)
Army
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Air Force and Army compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Air Force and Army are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Air Force's and Army's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsArmy 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Air Force and Army?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Army 1.8 points better (66th to 73rd). PRIME has Air Force by 1.0 instead. The two ratings split on Air Force's offense: 70th in SP+, 36th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Army ahead (55th to 78th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedAir Force 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Air Force's offense ranks 38th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Army defense it faces ranks 125th in EPA per play allowed. Army's offense ranks 14th against Air Force's 85th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Air Force's offensive line in the run game: 1st in adjusted line yards per carry, against Army's 128th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Air Force's defense falls from 63rd to 85th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Air Force or Army?
Air Force is better running (3rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (129th). Army's run defense ranks 132nd, so that's a mismatch. Army is better running (1st in EPA per rush) than throwing (97th). Air Force's run defense ranks 65th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Air Force has the edge: its offense ranks 37th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 126th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Air Force or Army?
Air Force outscores FBS opponents by 7.7 a game, and Army by 8.1. Air Force's offense ranks 62nd in scoring, and the Army defense it faces ranks 83rd in points allowed. Army's offense ranks 34th against Air Force's 48th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseArmy 12–0
Which offense has the edge?
Air Force's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 31st in 3rd down conversion rate, and Army's defense ranks 132nd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Army's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 4th in yards per carry, and Air Force's defense ranks 109th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseAir Force 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Army's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 88th in interception rate, and Air Force's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (120th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontAir Force 8–4
Who wins up front?
Air Force has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Army ranks 9th and Air Force 105th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversArmy 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Army is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Air Force is 0.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Army. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentEven 4–4
Which team has more talent?
Army has the more talented roster (136th in the 247Sports talent composite; Air Force is 137th). But Air Force plays further above its talent: +23.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Army's +23.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSAir Force 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Air Force is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−3.8). Army is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+3.5). Air Force's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Air Force at Army: questions people ask
Air Force vs. Army prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Army, 63% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Army's best matchup is its run game, 4th in yards per carry, against Air Force's run defense at 109th.
Where can I watch Air Force vs. Army, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET at Michie Stadium. It's on CBS.
What's the projected score of Air Force vs. Army?
SP+ projects Army 33–29. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Air Force at Army?
DraftKings has Army −5.5, total 50.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Air Force vs. Army series history?
Air Force leads 38–21–1. Last meeting: Army won 20–17 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Air Force vs. Army?
Air Force: Liam Szarka (296 passing yards), Owen Allen (446 rushing yards) and Simon Kibbee (135 receiving yards). Army: Cale Hellums (422 passing yards), Godspower Nwawuihe (350 rushing yards) and Bradyn Anderson (163 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Air Force at Army?
Air Force's is Liam Szarka (296 passing yards this season); Army's is Cale Hellums (422 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Air Force at Army?
Air Force: Liam Szarka (QB) hasn't played since Week 5.
Keep going
- Air Force: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Army: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UTSA at Florida Atlantic: the numbers' pick
- South Florida at East Carolina: the numbers' pick
- New Mexico at Nevada: the numbers' pick
- Tulsa at Tulane: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.