South Florida vs. East Carolina Prediction, Week 10 2026
The numbers saySouth Florida63% chance to win
- South Florida's defense should hold up. South Florida is top-25 (22nd) in EPA per play allowed, and East Carolina is bottom-40 (112th) in EPA per play.
- South Florida's pass defense has the edge on East Carolina's passing game. South Florida is above average (34th) in EPA per pass allowed, and East Carolina is bottom-20 (122nd) in EPA per pass.
South Florida at East Carolina
Projected score: South Florida 26, East Carolina 22 (total 48).SP+: South Florida by 3.7, 60% chance to win.PRIME: South Florida by 2.3.
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 6, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
- Series
- South Florida leads 9–4
- Last meeting
- East Carolina 48–28 in 2022
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | South Florida by 3.7 | 60% | 48 |
| PRIME | South Florida by 2.3 | 57% | |
| Elo | South Florida | 71% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, South Florida or East Carolina?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide South Florida vs. East Carolina?
All three ratings favor South Florida, by 2.3 to 3.7 points. South Florida's best matchup is its defense, 22nd in EPA per play allowed, against East Carolina's offense at 112th. East Carolina's way back in is its run-stopping front, 8th in line yards allowed per carry, against South Florida's offensive line at 121st.
South Florida with the ball
East Carolina with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for South Florida and East Carolina?
South Florida
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
East Carolina
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How South Florida and East Carolina compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; South Florida and East Carolina are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How South Florida's and East Carolina's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsSouth Florida 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate South Florida and East Carolina?
On a neutral field, SP+ has South Florida 6.2 points better (63rd to 91st). PRIME also has South Florida ahead, by 4.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has South Florida ahead (39th to 81st).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
South Florida's offense ranks 115th in adjusted EPA per play, and the East Carolina defense it faces ranks 59th in EPA per play allowed. East Carolina's offense ranks 112th against South Florida's 22nd-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. Adjust for opponents and South Florida's offense falls from 71st to 115th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPASouth Florida 4–3
Who's more efficient, South Florida or East Carolina?
South Florida is better running (58th in EPA per rush) than throwing (87th). East Carolina's run defense ranks 54th. East Carolina is better throwing (87th in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). South Florida's pass defense ranks 46th, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringSouth Florida 2–0
Who scores more, South Florida or East Carolina?
South Florida outscores FBS opponents by 12.5 a game, and East Carolina is outscored by 0.1. South Florida's offense ranks 75th in scoring, and the East Carolina defense it faces ranks 64th in points allowed. East Carolina's offense ranks 94th against South Florida's 10th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Offense
Which offense has the edge?
East Carolina has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 68th, against a defense ranked 35th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseSouth Florida 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
South Florida's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 33rd in explosive plays allowed, and East Carolina's offense is bottom-40 in explosive play rate (114th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontEast Carolina 9–3
Who wins up front?
East Carolina has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where East Carolina ranks 40th and South Florida 110th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversEast Carolina 3–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentSouth Florida 9–2
Which team has more talent?
South Florida has the more talented roster (52nd in the 247Sports talent composite; East Carolina is 82nd). South Florida also plays further above its talent: −0.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to East Carolina's −1.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSSouth Florida 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
South Florida is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.0). East Carolina is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.2).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
South Florida at East Carolina: questions people ask
South Florida vs. East Carolina prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick South Florida, 63% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. South Florida's best matchup is its defense, 22nd in EPA per play allowed, against East Carolina's offense at 112th.
Where can I watch South Florida vs. East Carolina, and what time is it?
Fri, Nov 6, 7:30 PM ET at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of South Florida vs. East Carolina?
SP+ projects South Florida 26–22. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the South Florida vs. East Carolina series history?
South Florida leads 9–4. Last meeting: East Carolina won 48–28 in 2022.
Who are the players to watch in South Florida vs. East Carolina?
South Florida: Luke Kromenhoek (64 passing yards) and D.J. Crowther (573 rushing yards). East Carolina: Mitch Griffis (769 passing yards), TJ Engleman (689 rushing yards) and Nathaniel Joseph (327 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in South Florida at East Carolina?
South Florida's is Luke Kromenhoek (64 passing yards this season); East Carolina's is Mitch Griffis (769 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- South Florida: every stat, rank and the schedule
- East Carolina: every stat, rank and the schedule
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- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.