UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayUTSA69% chance to win
- UTSA should run it. UTSA is top-10 (10th) in EPA per rush, and Florida Atlantic is bottom-20 (138th) in EPA per rush allowed.
- UTSA's offense should move it. UTSA is top-25 (24th) in yards per play, and Florida Atlantic is bottom-20 (136th) in yards per play allowed.
UTSA at Florida Atlantic
Projected score: UTSA 38, Florida Atlantic 34 (total 72).SP+: UTSA by 4.4, 62% chance to win.PRIME: UTSA by 4.1.
- Kickoff
- Thu, Nov 5, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- FAU Stadium
- Series
- Florida Atlantic leads 3–2
- Last meeting
- UTSA 38–24 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | UTSA by 4.4 | 62% | 72 |
| PRIME | UTSA by 4.1 | 62% | |
| Elo | UTSA | 84% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, UTSA or Florida Atlantic?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic?
All three ratings favor UTSA, by 4.1 to 4.4 points. UTSA's best matchup is its run game, 10th in EPA per rush, against Florida Atlantic's run defense at 138th. Florida Atlantic's way back in is its pass protection, 35th in sacks allowed per dropback, against UTSA's pass rush at 130th.
UTSA with the ball
Florida Atlantic with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for UTSA and Florida Atlantic?
UTSA
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Florida Atlantic
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How UTSA and Florida Atlantic compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; UTSA and Florida Atlantic are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How UTSA's and Florida Atlantic's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsUTSA 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate UTSA and Florida Atlantic?
On a neutral field, SP+ has UTSA 6.9 points better (59th to 90th). PRIME also has UTSA ahead, by 6.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has UTSA ahead (51st to 114th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedUTSA 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
UTSA's offense ranks 35th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Florida Atlantic defense it faces ranks 131st in EPA per play allowed. Florida Atlantic's offense ranks 49th against UTSA's 88th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is UTSA's run game: 10th in adjusted EPA per rush, against Florida Atlantic's 138th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Florida Atlantic's offense falls from 28th to 49th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAUTSA 5–3
Who's more efficient, UTSA or Florida Atlantic?
UTSA is better running (16th in EPA per rush) than throwing (81st). Florida Atlantic's run defense ranks 136th, so that's a mismatch. Florida Atlantic is better throwing (29th in EPA per pass) than running (83rd). UTSA's pass defense ranks 67th, so that's an edge. On third down, UTSA has the edge: its offense ranks 28th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 127th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, UTSA or Florida Atlantic?
UTSA outscores FBS opponents by 7.5 a game, and Florida Atlantic by 2.0. UTSA's offense ranks 36th in scoring, and the Florida Atlantic defense it faces ranks 132nd in points allowed. Florida Atlantic's offense ranks 14th against UTSA's 89th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseUTSA 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
UTSA's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 9th in success rate, and Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 115th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch. Florida Atlantic's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 15th in 3rd down conversion rate, and UTSA's defense ranks 40th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseUTSA 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
UTSA's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 6th in explosive plays allowed, and Florida Atlantic's offense is bottom-40 in explosive play rate (115th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontUTSA 11–1
Who wins up front?
UTSA has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where UTSA ranks 36th and Florida Atlantic 136th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversUTSA 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
UTSA is +0.9 in turnover margin a game and Florida Atlantic is +0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for UTSA. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and UTSA's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.6 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentUTSA 7–3
Which team has more talent?
UTSA has the more talented roster (72nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Florida Atlantic is 98th). UTSA also plays further above its talent: +3.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Florida Atlantic's +0.9.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSUTSA 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
UTSA is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.7). Florida Atlantic is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). UTSA's record is running 1.7 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
UTSA at Florida Atlantic: questions people ask
UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick UTSA, 69% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. UTSA's best matchup is its run game, 10th in EPA per rush, against Florida Atlantic's run defense at 138th.
Where can I watch UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic, and what time is it?
Thu, Nov 5, 7:30 PM ET at FAU Stadium. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic?
SP+ projects UTSA 38–34. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic series history?
Florida Atlantic leads 3–2. Last meeting: UTSA won 38–24 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic?
UTSA: Owen McCown (1,769 passing yards), Will Henderson III (572 rushing yards) and DJ Allen (347 receiving yards). Florida Atlantic: Caden Veltkamp (2,611 passing yards), Ethan Ervin (369 rushing yards) and Easton Messer (948 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in UTSA at Florida Atlantic?
UTSA's is Owen McCown (1,769 passing yards this season); Florida Atlantic's is Caden Veltkamp (2,611 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- UTSA: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Florida Atlantic: every stat, rank and the schedule
- South Florida at East Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Tulsa at Tulane: the numbers' pick
- Temple at Navy: the numbers' pick
- Charlotte at UAB: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.