Tulsa vs. Tulane Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
44% chance to win
- Tulsa's early-down defense has the edge on Tulane's early-down offense. Tulsa is above average (35th) in SUPLEX allowed, and Tulane is bottom-20 (126th) in SUPLEX.
- Tulsa's run-stopping front has the edge on Tulane's offensive line. Tulsa is above average (46th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Tulane is bottom-20 (129th) in line yards per carry.
Tulsa at Tulane
Projected score: Tulsa 28, Tulane 24 (total 52).SP+: Tulsa by 3.5, 60% chance to win.PRIME: Tulsa by 0.8.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPNU
- Where
- Yulman Stadium
- Series
- Tulsa leads 13–8
- Last meeting
- Tulane 31–14 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Tulsa by 3.5 | 60% | 52 |
| PRIME | Tulsa by 0.8 | 52% | |
| Elo | Tulane | 81% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Tulsa or Tulane?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Tulsa vs. Tulane?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Tulsa ahead by a hair. Tulsa's best matchup is its early-down defense, 35th in SUPLEX allowed, against Tulane's early-down offense at 126th. Tulane's way back in is its run game, 29th in yards per carry, against Tulsa's run defense at 88th.
Tulsa with the ball
Tulane with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Tulsa and Tulane?
Tulsa
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Tulane
- Kadin Semonza (QB), hasn't played since Week 6 (119 pass attempts in 5 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Tulsa and Tulane compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Tulsa and Tulane are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Tulsa's and Tulane's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Tulsa and Tulane?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Tulsa 6.0 points better (82nd to 101st). PRIME also has Tulsa ahead, by 3.3. Elo, which only sees results, has Tulane ahead (67th to 109th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedTulsa 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Tulsa's offense ranks 52nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Tulane defense it faces ranks 55th in EPA per play allowed. Tulane's offense ranks 107th against Tulsa's 56th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Tulane's big plays: 2nd in adjusted explosiveness, against Tulsa's 103rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Tulane's defense climbs from 87th to 55th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPATulsa 6–2
Who's more efficient, Tulsa or Tulane?
Tulsa is better running (19th in EPA per rush) than throwing (77th). Tulane's run defense ranks 92nd, so that's a mismatch. Tulane is better running (58th in EPA per rush) than throwing (91st). Tulsa's run defense ranks 71st. On third down, Tulane has the edge: its offense ranks 17th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 80th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringTulsa 2–0
Who scores more, Tulsa or Tulane?
Tulsa outscores FBS opponents by 5.4 a game, and Tulane is outscored by 2.9. Tulsa's offense ranks 57th in scoring, and the Tulane defense it faces ranks 79th in points allowed. Tulane's offense ranks 107th against Tulsa's 67th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseTulsa 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Tulsa's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 39th in yards per carry, and Tulane's defense ranks 103rd in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Tulane's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 29th in yards per carry, and Tulsa's defense ranks 88th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseTulsa 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Tulsa's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 35th in SUPLEX allowed, and Tulane's offense is bottom-20 in SUPLEX (126th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontTulsa 8–4
Who wins up front?
Tulsa has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Tulsa ranks 35th and Tulane 120th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversTulsa 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Tulsa is +1.3 in turnover margin a game and Tulane is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 8-point edge for Tulsa. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Tulsa's takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 1.9 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentTulsa 5–4
Which team has more talent?
Tulane has the more talented roster (70th in the 247Sports talent composite; Tulsa is 84th). But Tulsa plays further above its talent: +0.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Tulane's −8.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Tulsa is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.0). Tulane is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.4). Tulane's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Tulsa at Tulane: questions people ask
Tulsa vs. Tulane prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Tulsa, 44% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Tulane. Tulsa's best matchup is its early-down defense, 35th in SUPLEX allowed, against Tulane's early-down offense at 126th.
Where can I watch Tulsa vs. Tulane, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET at Yulman Stadium. It's on ESPNU.
What's the projected score of Tulsa vs. Tulane?
SP+ projects Tulsa 28–24. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Tulsa vs. Tulane series history?
Tulsa leads 13–8. Last meeting: Tulane won 31–14 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Tulsa vs. Tulane?
Tulsa: Baylor Hayes (1,361 passing yards), Damari Alston (422 rushing yards) and Oran Singleton Jr. (539 receiving yards). Tulane: Kadin Semonza (814 passing yards), Johnnie Daniels (486 rushing yards) and Destyn Hill (394 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Tulsa at Tulane?
Tulsa's is Baylor Hayes (1,361 passing yards this season); Tulane's is Kadin Semonza (814 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Tulsa at Tulane?
Tulane: Kadin Semonza (QB) hasn't played since Week 6.
Keep going
- Tulsa: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Tulane: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UTSA at Florida Atlantic: the numbers' pick
- South Florida at East Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Temple at Navy: the numbers' pick
- Charlotte at UAB: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.