New Mexico vs. Nevada Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
73% chance to win
- New Mexico's front should win up front. New Mexico is top-10 (4th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Nevada is bottom-20 (120th) in line yards per carry.
New Mexico at Nevada
Projected score: New Mexico 24, Nevada 14 (total 39).SP+: New Mexico by 9.9, 76% chance to win.PRIME: New Mexico by 5.5.
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 6, 9:00 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Mackay Stadium
- Series
- Nevada leads 6–4–1
- Last meeting
- New Mexico 24–22 in 2025
- Nevada injuries
- Carter Jones (QB), questionable
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | New Mexico by 9.9 | 76% | 39 |
| PRIME | New Mexico by 5.5 | 65% | |
| Elo | New Mexico | 79% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, New Mexico or Nevada?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide New Mexico vs. Nevada?
All three ratings favor New Mexico, by 5.5 to 9.9 points. New Mexico's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 1st in interceptions per pass, against Nevada's ball security at 132nd. Nevada's way back in is its pass rush, 15th in sack rate, against New Mexico's pass protection at 131st.
New Mexico with the ball
Nevada with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for New Mexico and Nevada?
New Mexico
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Nevada
- Carter Jones (QB), questionable. Arm; missed the San Jose State game, as did backup AJ Bianco (ankle). Jeff Choate says it's too early to name a starter for UCLA; Luke Duncan started last week. (as of Oct 26, 2026)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How New Mexico and Nevada compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; New Mexico and Nevada are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How New Mexico's and Nevada's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsNew Mexico 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate New Mexico and Nevada?
On a neutral field, SP+ has New Mexico 12.4 points better (36th to 89th). PRIME also has New Mexico ahead, by 8.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has New Mexico ahead (36th to 88th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedNew Mexico 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
New Mexico's offense ranks 53rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Nevada defense it faces ranks 80th in EPA per play allowed. Nevada's offense ranks 75th against New Mexico's 15th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is New Mexico's offense against Nevada's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Nevada's big plays: 31st in adjusted explosiveness, against New Mexico's 110th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Nevada's offense climbs from 99th to 75th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPANew Mexico 8–0
Who's more efficient, New Mexico or Nevada?
New Mexico is better running (31st in EPA per rush) than throwing (97th). Nevada's run defense ranks 78th, so that's an edge. Nevada is better running (64th in EPA per rush) than throwing (117th). New Mexico's run defense ranks 4th, so the defense has the better of it.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringNew Mexico 2–0
Who scores more, New Mexico or Nevada?
New Mexico outscores FBS opponents by 23.1 a game, and Nevada by 0.4. New Mexico's offense ranks 27th in scoring, and the Nevada defense it faces ranks 55th in points allowed. Nevada's offense ranks 102nd against New Mexico's 1st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is New Mexico's offense against Nevada's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseNew Mexico 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
New Mexico's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 38th in yards per carry, and Nevada's defense ranks 64th in yards per carry allowed. Nevada has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 60th, against a defense ranked 14th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseNew Mexico 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
New Mexico's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 1st in interception rate, and Nevada's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (132nd). That's a mismatch. Nevada's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 15th in sack rate, and New Mexico's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (131st). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontNew Mexico 9–3
Who wins up front?
New Mexico has the better number in 9 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where New Mexico ranks 1st and Nevada 122nd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversNew Mexico 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
New Mexico is +2.6 in turnover margin a game and Nevada is −1.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 19-point edge for New Mexico. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentNew Mexico 7–2
Which team has more talent?
New Mexico has the more talented roster (112th in the 247Sports talent composite; Nevada is 118th). New Mexico also plays further above its talent: +15.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Nevada's +4.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSNew Mexico 5–0
Where did each team's wins come from?
New Mexico is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.7). Nevada is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.9). Nevada's record is 1.9 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
New Mexico at Nevada: questions people ask
New Mexico vs. Nevada prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick New Mexico, 73% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. New Mexico's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 1st in interceptions per pass, against Nevada's ball security at 132nd.
Where can I watch New Mexico vs. Nevada, and what time is it?
Fri, Nov 6, 9:00 PM ET at Mackay Stadium. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of New Mexico vs. Nevada?
SP+ projects New Mexico 24–14. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the New Mexico vs. Nevada series history?
Nevada leads 6–4–1. Last meeting: New Mexico won 24–22 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in New Mexico vs. Nevada?
New Mexico: Toa Faavae (907 passing yards), Scottre Humphrey (532 rushing yards) and Cade Keith (295 receiving yards). Nevada: Carter Jones (666 passing yards), Dominic Kelley (584 rushing yards) and Gary Givens III (305 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in New Mexico at Nevada?
New Mexico's is Toa Faavae (907 passing yards this season); Nevada's is Carter Jones (666 passing yards this season).
Who's out for New Mexico at Nevada?
Nevada: Carter Jones (QB), questionable.
Keep going
- New Mexico: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Nevada: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Northern Illinois at San José State: the numbers' pick
- Air Force at Army: the numbers' pick
- Hawai'i at UTEP: the numbers' pick
- Wyoming at UNLV: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.