Duke vs. NC State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
68% chance to win
- Duke should keep its quarterback clean. Duke is top-10 (1st) in sacks allowed per dropback, and NC State is bottom-40 (106th) in sack rate.
- Duke's run defense has the edge on NC State's run game. Duke is above average (30th) in EPA per rush allowed, and NC State is bottom-20 (124th) in EPA per rush.
Duke at NC State
Projected score: Duke 34, NC State 28 (total 62).SP+: Duke by 5.2, 64% chance to win.PRIME: Duke by 4.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 PM ET
- TV
- CW
- Where
- Carter-Finley Stadium
- Series
- Duke leads 44–37–5
- Last meeting
- Duke 45–33 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Duke by 5.2 | 64% | 62 |
| PRIME | Duke by 4.6 | 63% | |
| Elo | Duke | 75% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Duke or NC State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Duke vs. NC State?
All three ratings favor Duke, by 4.6 to 5.2 points. Duke's best matchup is its pass protection, 1st in sacks allowed per dropback, against NC State's pass rush at 106th. NC State's way back in is its ball security, 31st in interceptions thrown per pass, against Duke's takeaway defense at 124th.
Duke with the ball
NC State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Duke and NC State?
Duke
- Jamien Little (#1), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kimari Robinson (#5), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Qeanu Johnson (#21), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kolbe Harmon (#23), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Elliott Schaper (#31), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Andrew Pellicciotta (S), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Cosme Salas (#39), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- David Anderson (#44), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kai Jacobowitz (#65), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Reagan McCranie (#74), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Roman Fina (#79), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
NC State
- Jayden "Duke" Scott (#1), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tristan Teasdell (#3), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Vander Ploog (#4), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Isaiah Crowell (#8), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- AJ Richardson (#15), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Daniel Cruz (#50), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Yousef Mugharbil (#71), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Spike Sowells Jr. (#72), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ian Flynt (#87), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Nick Konieczynski (#91), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- AJ Prim (#99), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Joshisa "Jojo" Trader (#2), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jamel Johnson (#6), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Duke and NC State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Duke and NC State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Duke's and NC State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsDuke 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Duke and NC State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Duke 7.7 points better (47th to 74th). PRIME also has Duke ahead, by 7.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Duke ahead (24th to 64th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedDuke 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Duke's offense ranks 64th in adjusted EPA per play, and the NC State defense it faces ranks 121st in EPA per play allowed. NC State's offense ranks 70th against Duke's 33rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Duke's offense against NC State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Duke's big plays: 19th in adjusted explosiveness, against NC State's 113th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and NC State's offense falls from 30th to 70th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPADuke 5–3
Who's more efficient, Duke or NC State?
Duke is about as good throwing (41st in EPA per pass) as running (47th). NC State is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). Duke's pass defense ranks 74th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, NC State has the edge: its offense ranks 3rd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 39th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Duke or NC State?
Duke outscores FBS opponents by 17.8 a game, and NC State by 6.2. Duke's offense ranks 48th in scoring, and the NC State defense it faces ranks 87th in points allowed. NC State's offense ranks 47th against Duke's 9th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Duke's offense against NC State's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
Duke's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 37th in explosive play rate, and NC State's defense ranks 119th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. NC State has no clear edge here. Its best is success rate, 41st, against a defense ranked 59th in success rate allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseDuke 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Duke's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 22nd in explosive plays allowed, and NC State's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (86th). That's a mismatch. NC State's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 79th in success rate allowed, and Duke's offense is bottom-40 in success rate (111th).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontDuke 10–2
Who wins up front?
Duke has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Duke ranks 19th and NC State 124th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversDuke 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Duke is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and NC State is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Duke. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Duke's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.0 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentNC State 9–1
Which team has more talent?
NC State has the more talented roster (32nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Duke is 69th). But Duke plays further above its talent: +6.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to NC State's −6.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyDuke 3–0
Which roster costs more?
NC State's roster is valued at $19.2M, Duke's at $18.3M. Dollar for dollar, Duke plays better: +3.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −5.2 for NC State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSDuke 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Duke is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.0). NC State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.1).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Duke at NC State: questions people ask
Duke vs. NC State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Duke, 68% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Duke's best matchup is its pass protection, 1st in sacks allowed per dropback, against NC State's pass rush at 106th.
Where can I watch Duke vs. NC State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 PM ET at Carter-Finley Stadium. It's on CW.
What's the projected score of Duke vs. NC State?
SP+ projects Duke 34–28. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Duke vs. NC State series history?
Duke leads 44–37–5. Last meeting: Duke won 45–33 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Duke vs. NC State?
Duke: Walker Eget (1,663 passing yards), Nate Sheppard (931 rushing yards) and Jeremiah Hasley (305 receiving yards). NC State: CJ Bailey (1,955 passing yards), Jayden Scott (346 rushing yards) and Keenan Jackson (467 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Duke at NC State?
Duke's is Walker Eget (1,663 passing yards this season); NC State's is CJ Bailey (1,955 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Duke: every stat, rank and the schedule
- NC State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Virginia Tech at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Clemson at Syracuse: the numbers' pick
- Florida State at Boston College: the numbers' pick
- North Carolina at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.