Virginia Tech vs. SMU Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers saySMU72% chance to win
- SMU's run-stopping front has the edge on Virginia Tech's offensive line. SMU is above average (29th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Virginia Tech is bottom-20 (127th) in line yards per carry.
Virginia Tech at SMU
Projected score: Virginia Tech 25, SMU 31 (total 56).SP+: SMU by 6.9, 69% chance to win.PRIME: SMU by 5.2.
- Kickoff
- Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Gerald J. Ford Stadium
- Line
- SMU −7.5, total 57.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- SMU leads 2–1
- Last meeting
- SMU 28–25 in 1974
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | SMU by 6.9 | 69% | 56 |
| PRIME | SMU by 5.2 | 64% | |
| Elo | SMU | 84% | |
| The line | SMU −7.5 | 57.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Virginia Tech or SMU?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Virginia Tech vs. SMU?
All three ratings favor SMU, by 5.2 to 6.9 points. SMU's best matchup is its run-stopping front, 29th in line yards allowed per carry, against Virginia Tech's offensive line at 127th. Virginia Tech's way back in is its run-stopping front, 1st in line yards allowed per carry, against SMU's offensive line at 98th.
Virginia Tech with the ball
SMU with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Virginia Tech and SMU?
Virginia Tech
- Shamarius "Snook" Peterkin (#15), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Thomas Williams (CB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- George Ballance (#25), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Nathaniel Wright (#50), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Lucas Austin (#57), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Montavious Cunningham (#66), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Justin Terry (#72), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- L.J. Booker (#80), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Luke Stuewe (#83), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Emmett Laws (#99), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
SMU
- Dramekco Green (RB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ahmaad Moses (#7), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ira Singleton IV (#9), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tyren Polley Jr. (#10), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Carterrious Brown (#11), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Trey Wilson (#14), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Link Rhodes (#24), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- I'Zayah Young (#25), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tyron Winslow (#56), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Abel Hoopii (#58), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Nick Reed (#99), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Virginia Tech and SMU compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Virginia Tech and SMU are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Virginia Tech's and SMU's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsSMU 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Virginia Tech and SMU?
On a neutral field, SP+ has SMU 4.4 points better (21st to 38th). PRIME also has SMU ahead, by 2.7. Elo, which only sees results, also has SMU ahead (27th to 62nd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedSMU 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Virginia Tech's offense ranks 40th in adjusted EPA per play, and the SMU defense it faces ranks 81st in EPA per play allowed. SMU's offense ranks 42nd against Virginia Tech's 100th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is SMU's passing game: 21st in adjusted EPA per pass, against Virginia Tech's 99th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Virginia Tech's defense falls from 56th to 100th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPASMU 6–1
Who's more efficient, Virginia Tech or SMU?
Virginia Tech is better throwing (29th in EPA per pass) than running (89th). SMU's pass defense ranks 37th. SMU is better throwing (5th in EPA per pass) than running (80th). Virginia Tech's pass defense ranks 83rd, so that's a mismatch. On third down, SMU has the edge: its offense ranks 15th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 105th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Virginia Tech or SMU?
Virginia Tech outscores FBS opponents by 14.5 a game, and SMU by 13.0. Virginia Tech's offense ranks 27th in scoring, and the SMU defense it faces ranks 53rd in points allowed. SMU's offense ranks 26th against Virginia Tech's 35th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Virginia Tech's offense against SMU's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Offense
Which offense has the edge?
SMU's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 25th in explosive play rate, and Virginia Tech's defense ranks 92nd in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseSMU 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Virginia Tech's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 22nd in yards per carry allowed, and SMU's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (85th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontEven 6–6
Who wins up front?
They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where SMU ranks 53rd and Virginia Tech 112th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversSMU 3–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentVirginia Tech 6–5
Which team has more talent?
Virginia Tech has the more talented roster (27th in the 247Sports talent composite; SMU is 31st). But SMU plays further above its talent: +7.0 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Virginia Tech's +2.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneySMU 2–1
Which roster costs more?
SMU's roster is valued at $22.4M, Virginia Tech's at $22.3M. SMU also plays better per dollar: +5.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +1.5 for Virginia Tech.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSVirginia Tech 3–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Virginia Tech is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+0.9). SMU is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.0).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Virginia Tech at SMU: questions people ask
Virginia Tech vs. SMU prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick SMU, 72% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. SMU's best matchup is its run-stopping front, 29th in line yards allowed per carry, against Virginia Tech's offensive line at 127th.
Where can I watch Virginia Tech vs. SMU, and what time is it?
Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of Virginia Tech vs. SMU?
SP+ projects SMU 31–25. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Virginia Tech at SMU?
DraftKings has SMU −7.5, total 57.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Virginia Tech vs. SMU series history?
SMU leads 2–1. Last meeting: SMU won 28–25 in 1974.
Who are the players to watch in Virginia Tech vs. SMU?
Virginia Tech: Ethan Grunkemeyer (2,204 passing yards) and Que'Sean Brown (719 receiving yards). SMU: Kevin Jennings (2,441 passing yards), Kendrick Raphael (683 rushing yards) and Yamir Knight (474 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Virginia Tech at SMU?
Virginia Tech's is Ethan Grunkemeyer (2,204 passing yards this season); SMU's is Kevin Jennings (2,441 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Virginia Tech: every stat, rank and the schedule
- SMU: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Clemson at Syracuse: the numbers' pick
- Florida State at Boston College: the numbers' pick
- North Carolina at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Duke at NC State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.