North Carolina vs. UConn Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayNorth Carolina54% chance to win
- North Carolina's passing game has the edge on UConn's pass defense. North Carolina is above average (50th) in EPA per pass, and UConn is bottom-40 (106th) in EPA per pass allowed.
North Carolina at UConn
Projected score: North Carolina 28, UConn 27 (total 55).SP+: a coin flip.PRIME: North Carolina by 8.2.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Pratt & Whitney Stadium
- Series
- North Carolina leads 3–1
- Last meeting
- UConn 27–14 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | North Carolina by 0.5 | 51% | 55 |
| PRIME | North Carolina by 8.2 | 72% | |
| Elo | UConn | 60% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, North Carolina or UConn?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide North Carolina vs. UConn?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with North Carolina ahead by a hair. North Carolina's best matchup is its passing game, 50th in EPA per pass, against UConn's pass defense at 106th. UConn's way back in is its big-play defense, 10th in explosive plays allowed, against North Carolina's big-play offense at 94th.
North Carolina with the ball
UConn with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for North Carolina and UConn?
North Carolina
- Tre Miller (DB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Peyton Waters (#7), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jonathan Agumadu (#8), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Viliami Moala (#56), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Keeyun Chapman (#82), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Vodney Cleveland (#88), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Suliafu (#92), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jordan Hall (#66), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Andrew Threatt (#75), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Benjamin Hall (RB), hasn't played since Week 7 (57 carries in 6 games before that)
UConn
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How North Carolina and UConn compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; North Carolina and UConn are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How North Carolina's and UConn's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsNorth Carolina 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate North Carolina and UConn?
On a neutral field, SP+ has North Carolina 3.0 points better (58th to 67th). PRIME also has North Carolina ahead, by 10.7. Elo, which only sees results, has UConn ahead (72nd to 77th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
North Carolina's offense ranks 65th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UConn defense it faces ranks 82nd in EPA per play allowed. UConn's offense ranks 54th against North Carolina's 53rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is North Carolina's efficiency: 32nd in adjusted success rate, against UConn's 105th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and UConn's defense falls from 52nd to 82nd in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAUConn 6–2
Who's more efficient, North Carolina or UConn?
North Carolina is better throwing (77th in EPA per pass) than running (96th). UConn's pass defense ranks 79th. UConn is better running (19th in EPA per rush) than throwing (43rd). North Carolina's run defense ranks 68th, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, North Carolina or UConn?
North Carolina outscores FBS opponents by 2.8 a game, and UConn by 9.2. North Carolina's offense ranks 88th in scoring, and the UConn defense it faces ranks 74th in points allowed. UConn's offense ranks 30th against North Carolina's 57th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is UConn's offense against North Carolina's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseUConn 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
North Carolina has no clear edge here. Its best is success rate, 63rd, against a defense ranked 57th in success rate allowed. UConn's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 19th in success rate, and North Carolina's defense ranks 92nd in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseUConn 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
North Carolina's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 92nd in sack rate, and UConn's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (128th). UConn's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 10th in explosive plays allowed, and North Carolina's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (94th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontUConn 8–4
Who wins up front?
UConn has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where UConn ranks 13th and North Carolina 125th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversUConn 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: North Carolina is −0.3 a game and UConn 0.0.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentNorth Carolina 9–1
Which team has more talent?
North Carolina has the more talented roster (28th in the 247Sports talent composite; UConn is 73rd). But UConn plays further above its talent: +1.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to North Carolina's −2.9.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Money
Which roster costs more?
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
North Carolina is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.1). UConn is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.7). UConn's record is 1.7 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
North Carolina at UConn: questions people ask
North Carolina vs. UConn prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick North Carolina, 54% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has UConn. North Carolina's best matchup is its passing game, 50th in EPA per pass, against UConn's pass defense at 106th.
Where can I watch North Carolina vs. UConn, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of North Carolina vs. UConn?
SP+ projects North Carolina 28–27. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the North Carolina vs. UConn series history?
North Carolina leads 3–1. Last meeting: UConn won 27–14 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in North Carolina vs. UConn?
North Carolina: Billy Edwards (1,534 passing yards), Benjamin Hall (283 rushing yards) and Jordan Shipp (543 receiving yards). UConn: Kalieb Osborne (1,873 passing yards), Cyncir Bowers (571 rushing yards) and Shamar Porter (318 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in North Carolina at UConn?
North Carolina's is Billy Edwards (1,534 passing yards this season); UConn's is Kalieb Osborne (1,873 passing yards this season).
Who's out for North Carolina at UConn?
North Carolina: Benjamin Hall (RB) hasn't played since Week 7.
Keep going
- North Carolina: every stat, rank and the schedule
- UConn: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Virginia Tech at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Clemson at Syracuse: the numbers' pick
- Florida State at Boston College: the numbers' pick
- Duke at NC State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.