Florida State vs. Boston College Prediction, Week 10 2026
66% chance to win
- Florida State's offensive line should win up front. Florida State is top-10 (4th) in line yards per carry, and Boston College is bottom-40 (93rd) in line yards allowed per carry.
- Florida State's pass rush has the edge on Boston College's pass protection. Florida State is above average (40th) in sack rate, and Boston College is bottom-20 (116th) in sacks allowed per dropback.
Florida State is without RB Ousmane Kromah (553 rushing yards). Florida State has played one game without Kromah and lost it by 12 (it won by 4 ppg with him). One game isn't enough to know yet.
Florida State at Boston College
Projected score: Florida State 31, Boston College 26 (total 57).SP+: Florida State by 4.8, 63% chance to win.PRIME: Florida State by 2.6.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET
- TV
- ACC Network
- Where
- Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
- Series
- Florida State leads 16–6
- Last meeting
- Boston College 28–13 in 2024
- Florida State injuries
- Kromah (RB), out for season
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Florida State by 4.8 | 63% | 57 |
| PRIME | Florida State by 2.6 | 57% | |
| Elo | Florida State | 76% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Florida State or Boston College?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Florida State vs. Boston College?
All three ratings favor Florida State, by 2.6 to 4.8 points. Florida State's best matchup is its offensive line, 4th in line yards per carry, against Boston College's run-stopping front at 93rd. Boston College's way back in is its takeaway defense, 5th in interceptions per pass, against Florida State's ball security at 123rd. We left out the edges built on Kromah, who's out.
Florida State with the ball
Boston College with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Florida State and Boston College?
Florida State
- Kromah (RB), out for season (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31). Left ankle or lower leg, hurt on a second-quarter carry in the Oct. 17 double-overtime loss at Miami; season-ending surgery, full recovery expected (AP, Oct. 18). He led the team with 114 carries for 609 yards. Tre Wisner is the lead back. The ACC report lists him out; we keep "out for season" because of the school's statement. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Quindarrius Jones (DB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Samuel Singleton Jr. (#3), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Karson Hobbs (#16), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jamari Howard (#18), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Blake Nichelson (#20), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Izayia Williams (#30), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Daylen Green (#38), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Noah LaVallee (#45), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Conor McAneney (#93), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- K.J. Kirkland (#24), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Micahi Danzy (WR), hasn't played since Week 6 (17 catches in 5 games before that)
Boston College
- Isaiah Farris (#16), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Justin Medlock (#20), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Evan Dickens (RB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Sedric Addison (#26), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Pape Abdoulaye Sy (#75), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Reed Swanson (#80), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Zeke Moore (#48), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Florida State and Boston College compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Florida State and Boston College are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Florida State's and Boston College's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsFlorida State 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Florida State and Boston College?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Florida State 7.3 points better (53rd to 78th). PRIME also has Florida State ahead, by 5.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Florida State ahead (47th to 99th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedBoston College 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Florida State's offense ranks 31st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Boston College defense it faces ranks 24th in EPA per play allowed. Boston College's offense ranks 92nd against Florida State's 103rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Florida State's offensive line in the run game: 4th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Boston College's 93rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Florida State's defense climbs from 124th to 103rd in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Florida State or Boston College?
Florida State is better running (22nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (39th). Boston College's run defense ranks 58th, so that's an edge. Boston College is better running (74th in EPA per rush) than throwing (95th). Florida State's run defense ranks 112th, so that's an edge. On third down, Boston College has the edge: its offense ranks 58th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 137th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Florida State or Boston College?
Florida State outscores FBS opponents by 1.7 a game, and Boston College is outscored by 4.9. Florida State's offense ranks 54th in scoring, and the Boston College defense it faces ranks 91st in points allowed. Boston College's offense ranks 111th against Florida State's 105th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Florida State's offense against Boston College's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseFlorida State 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Florida State's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 41st in SUPLEX, and Boston College's defense ranks 80th in SUPLEX allowed. Boston College's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 34th in yards per carry, and Florida State's defense ranks 132nd in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseBoston College 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Florida State's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 40th in sack rate, and Boston College's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (116th). That's a mismatch. Boston College's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 5th in interception rate, and Florida State's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (123rd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontBoston College 7–5
Who wins up front?
Boston College has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), where Florida State ranks 10th and Boston College 127th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversBoston College 6–1
Who wins the turnover battle?
Boston College is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Florida State is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 7-point edge for Boston College. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentFlorida State 10–1
Which team has more talent?
Florida State has the more talented roster (21st in the 247Sports talent composite; Boston College is 71st). But Boston College plays further above its talent: −1.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Florida State's −2.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyFlorida State 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Florida State's roster is valued at $24.0M, Boston College's at $17.6M. Florida State also plays better per dollar: −3.4 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −3.9 for Boston College.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSBoston College 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Florida State is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−0.9). Boston College is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+0.8). Florida State's record is 0.9 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Florida State at Boston College: questions people ask
Florida State vs. Boston College prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Florida State, 66% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Florida State's best matchup is its offensive line, 4th in line yards per carry, against Boston College's run-stopping front at 93rd.
Where can I watch Florida State vs. Boston College, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET at Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA). It's on ACC Network.
What's the projected score of Florida State vs. Boston College?
SP+ projects Florida State 31–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Florida State vs. Boston College series history?
Florida State leads 16–6. Last meeting: Boston College won 28–13 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Florida State vs. Boston College?
Florida State: Ashton Daniels (1,634 passing yards), Kromah (553 rushing yards) and Duce Robinson (388 receiving yards). Boston College: Mason McKenzie (1,472 passing yards), Evan Dickens (276 rushing yards) and Javarius Green (318 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Florida State at Boston College?
Florida State's is Ashton Daniels (1,634 passing yards this season); Boston College's is Mason McKenzie (1,472 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Florida State at Boston College?
Florida State: Kromah (RB), out for season; Micahi Danzy (WR) hasn't played since Week 6.
Keep going
- Florida State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Boston College: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Virginia Tech at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Clemson at Syracuse: the numbers' pick
- North Carolina at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Duke at NC State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.