Louisville vs. Georgia Tech Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
81% chance to win
- Louisville should run it. Louisville is top-10 (1st) in yards per carry, and Georgia Tech is bottom-20 (124th) in yards per carry allowed.
Louisville at Georgia Tech
Projected score: Louisville 40, Georgia Tech 29 (total 69).SP+: Louisville by 10.8, 78% chance to win.PRIME: Louisville by 12.2.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- ACC Network
- Where
- Bobby Dodd Stadium
- Series
- Tied 2–2
- Last meeting
- Louisville 31–19 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Louisville by 10.8 | 78% | 69 |
| PRIME | Louisville by 12.2 | 81% | |
| Elo | Louisville | 84% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Louisville or Georgia Tech?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Louisville vs. Georgia Tech?
All three ratings favor Louisville, by 10.8 to 12.2 points, and it isn't close. Louisville's best matchup is its run game, 1st in yards per carry, against Georgia Tech's run defense at 124th. Georgia Tech's way back in is its early-down offense, 26th in SUPLEX, against Louisville's early-down defense at 109th.
Louisville with the ball
Georgia Tech with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Louisville and Georgia Tech?
Louisville
- Lawayne McCoy (WR), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Antonio Watts (#9), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Travis Egan (#44), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jacob Baker (#48), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Bryten Close (#63), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- James Glover-Tyson (#67), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Anwar O'neal (#70), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Hamilton Atkins (#90), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Daylen Russell (#90), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Sam Dawson (#98), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Georgia Tech
- Malachi Hosley (RB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Rahkeem Smith (#3), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Savion Riley (#13), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jaedyn Terry (#21), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Noah Carter (DE), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Fenix Felton (#31), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Will Kiker (#39), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kyle Efford (LB), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kevin Peay, Jr. (#52), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Courtney Heard (#65), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Markell Samuel (#71), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ethan Mackenny (#78), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kentrell Davis (#82), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- A.J. Hoffler (#88), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Shymeik Jones (#96), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Landen Marshall (#97), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Daiquan White (#4), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jordan Walker (#10), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jon Mitchell (#12), last game: game time decision (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Louisville and Georgia Tech compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Louisville and Georgia Tech are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Louisville's and Georgia Tech's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsLouisville 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Louisville and Georgia Tech?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Louisville 13.3 points better (25th to 75th). PRIME also has Louisville ahead, by 14.7. Elo, which only sees results, also has Louisville ahead (23rd to 86th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedLouisville 15–1
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Louisville's offense ranks 18th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Georgia Tech defense it faces ranks 129th in EPA per play allowed. Georgia Tech's offense ranks 58th against Louisville's 52nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisville's offense against Georgia Tech's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Louisville's backs in the open field: 1st in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Georgia Tech's 118th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Louisville's defense climbs from 75th to 52nd in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPALouisville 8–0
Who's more efficient, Louisville or Georgia Tech?
Louisville is about as good throwing (15th in EPA per pass) as running (14th). Georgia Tech is about as good throwing (64th in EPA per pass) as running (58th). On third down, Louisville has the edge: its offense ranks 14th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 129th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringLouisville 2–0
Who scores more, Louisville or Georgia Tech?
Louisville outscores FBS opponents by 13.4 a game, and Georgia Tech is outscored by 6.0. Louisville's offense ranks 5th in scoring, and the Georgia Tech defense it faces ranks 116th in points allowed. Georgia Tech's offense ranks 91st against Louisville's 95th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Louisville's offense against Georgia Tech's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseLouisville 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Louisville's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 1st in yards per carry, and Georgia Tech's defense ranks 124th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Georgia Tech's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 26th in SUPLEX, and Louisville's defense ranks 109th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseLouisville 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Louisville's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 55th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Georgia Tech's offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (117th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontGeorgia Tech 7–5
Who wins up front?
Georgia Tech has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Louisville ranks 19th and Georgia Tech 93rd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversLouisville 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Louisville is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Georgia Tech is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 8-point edge for Louisville. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentLouisville 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Georgia Tech has the more talented roster (34th in the 247Sports talent composite; Louisville is 41st). But Louisville plays further above its talent: +8.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Georgia Tech's −6.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyLouisville 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Louisville's roster is valued at $21.6M, Georgia Tech's at $20.1M. Louisville also plays better per dollar: +5.3 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −6.4 for Georgia Tech.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSLouisville 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Louisville is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.4). Georgia Tech is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.8). Georgia Tech's record is 1.8 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Louisville at Georgia Tech: questions people ask
Louisville vs. Georgia Tech prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Louisville, 81% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Louisville's best matchup is its run game, 1st in yards per carry, against Georgia Tech's run defense at 124th.
Where can I watch Louisville vs. Georgia Tech, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET at Bobby Dodd Stadium. It's on ACC Network.
What's the projected score of Louisville vs. Georgia Tech?
SP+ projects Louisville 40–29. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Louisville vs. Georgia Tech series history?
It's tied 2–2. Last meeting: Louisville won 31–19 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Louisville vs. Georgia Tech?
Louisville: Lincoln Kienholz (2,134 passing yards), Isaac Brown (700 rushing yards) and Tre Richardson (651 receiving yards). Georgia Tech: Alberto Mendoza (1,768 passing yards), Justice Haynes (490 rushing yards) and Jordan Allen (533 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Louisville at Georgia Tech?
Louisville's is Lincoln Kienholz (2,134 passing yards this season); Georgia Tech's is Alberto Mendoza (1,768 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Louisville: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Georgia Tech: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Virginia Tech at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Clemson at Syracuse: the numbers' pick
- Florida State at Boston College: the numbers' pick
- North Carolina at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.