Miami vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
61% chance to win
- Notre Dame should stop the run. Notre Dame is top-10 (2nd) in EPA per rush allowed, and Miami is middle of the pack (66th) in EPA per rush.
Miami at Notre Dame
Projected score: Miami 29, Notre Dame 32 (total 61).SP+: Notre Dame by 3.0, 58% chance to win.PRIME: Notre Dame by 1.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- NBC
- Where
- Notre Dame Stadium
- Line
- Notre Dame −3.5, total 55.5
- Line movement
- Opened Notre Dame −6.5; moved 3 points toward Miami. Total opened 54.5, up 1.
- Series
- Notre Dame leads 18–9–1
- Last meeting
- Miami 27–24 in 2025
- Notre Dame injuries
- DJ McKinney (CB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Notre Dame by 3.0 | 58% | 61 |
| PRIME | Notre Dame by 1.4 | 54% | |
| Elo | Notre Dame | 69% | |
| The line | Notre Dame −3.5, opened −6.5 | 55.5, opened 54.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Miami or Notre Dame?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Miami vs. Notre Dame?
All three ratings favor Notre Dame, by 1.4 to 3.0 points. Notre Dame's best matchup is its ball security, 3rd in interceptions thrown per pass, against Miami's takeaway defense at 103rd. Miami's way back in is its 3rd down offense, 13th in 3rd down conversion, against Notre Dame's 3rd down defense at 83rd. We left out the edges built on McKinney, who's out.
Miami with the ball
Notre Dame with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Miami and Notre Dame?
Miami
- Joshua Moore (#3), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- CharMar Brown (#6), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ja'Boree Antoine (#16), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Romanas "OJ" Frederique Jr. (#29), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Max Buchanan (#66), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Luka Gilbert (#88), last game: out (ACC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Notre Dame
- McKinney (CB), out. Right ankle, hurt Oct. 17 at BYU. Jayden Sanders starts in his place. (as of Oct 26, 2026)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Miami and Notre Dame compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Miami and Notre Dame are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Miami's and Notre Dame's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsNotre Dame 5–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Miami and Notre Dame?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Notre Dame 0.5 points better (3rd to 5th). PRIME has Miami by 1.1 instead. Elo, which only sees results, also has Notre Dame ahead (1st to 5th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedNotre Dame 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Miami's offense ranks 3rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Notre Dame defense it faces ranks 14th in EPA per play allowed. Notre Dame's offense ranks 2nd against Miami's 34th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Notre Dame's offense against Miami's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Notre Dame's passing game: 7th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Miami's 59th-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAMiami 4–3
Who's more efficient, Miami or Notre Dame?
Miami is better throwing (1st in EPA per pass) than running (22nd). Notre Dame's pass defense ranks 35th, so that's an edge. Notre Dame is about as good throwing (10th in EPA per pass) as running (8th). On third down, Miami has the edge: its offense ranks 1st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 30th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Miami or Notre Dame?
Miami outscores FBS opponents by 29.8 a game, and Notre Dame by 27.0. Miami's offense ranks 1st in scoring, and the Notre Dame defense it faces ranks 5th in points allowed. Notre Dame's offense ranks 5th against Miami's 21st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseMiami 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Miami's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 13th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Notre Dame's defense ranks 83rd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Notre Dame's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 6th in SUPLEX, and Miami's defense ranks 34th in SUPLEX allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseNotre Dame 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Miami's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 3rd in yards per carry allowed, and Notre Dame's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (53rd).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontMiami 7–5
Who wins up front?
Miami has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Miami ranks 44th and Notre Dame 121st.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversNotre Dame 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Notre Dame is +2.0 in turnover margin a game and Miami is +0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Notre Dame. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Notre Dame's takeaways lean on them (1.1 of 2.3 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentNotre Dame 7–4
Which team has more talent?
Notre Dame has the more talented roster (6th in the 247Sports talent composite; Miami is 12th). But Miami plays further above its talent: +10.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Notre Dame's +7.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyNotre Dame 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Miami's roster is valued at $39.4M, Notre Dame's at $36.7M. Dollar for dollar, Notre Dame plays better: +6.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +4.8 for Miami.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSMiami 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Miami is +4.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.6). Notre Dame is +3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.0).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Miami at Notre Dame: questions people ask
Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Notre Dame, 61% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Notre Dame's best matchup is its ball security, 3rd in interceptions thrown per pass, against Miami's takeaway defense at 103rd.
Where can I watch Miami vs. Notre Dame, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET at Notre Dame Stadium. It's on NBC.
What's the projected score of Miami vs. Notre Dame?
SP+ projects Notre Dame 32–29. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Miami at Notre Dame?
DraftKings has Notre Dame −3.5, total 55.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Miami vs. Notre Dame series history?
Notre Dame leads 18–9–1. Last meeting: Miami won 27–24 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Miami vs. Notre Dame?
Miami: Darian Mensah (2,155 passing yards), Mark Fletcher Jr. (444 rushing yards) and Malachi Toney (952 receiving yards). Notre Dame: C.J. Carr (1,861 passing yards), Nolan James Jr. (521 rushing yards) and Jordan Faison (497 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Miami at Notre Dame?
Miami's is Darian Mensah (2,155 passing yards this season); Notre Dame's is C.J. Carr (1,861 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Miami at Notre Dame?
Notre Dame: McKinney (CB), out.
Keep going
- Miami: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Notre Dame: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Virginia Tech at SMU: the numbers' pick
- Clemson at Syracuse: the numbers' pick
- Florida State at Boston College: the numbers' pick
- North Carolina at UConn: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.