Colorado State vs. Washington State Prediction, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayWashington State76% chance to win
Updated
Colorado State at Washington State
Projected score: Colorado State 31, Washington State 28 (total 59).SP+: Colorado State by 3.2, 59% chance to win.PRIME: Washington State by 5.8, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 10:30 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Gesa Field
- Weather
- 51°, wind 15 mph. Enough wind to hurt the passing and kicking
- Line
- Washington State −9.5, total 67.5
- Line movement
- Opened Washington State −6.5; moved 3 points toward Washington State. Total opened 62.5, up 5.
- Series
- Washington State leads 3–1
- Last meeting
- Washington State 20–3 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Colorado State by 3.2 | 59% | 59 |
| PRIME | Washington State by 5.8 | 66% | |
| Elo | Washington State | 86% | |
| The line | Washington State −9.5, opened −6.5 | 67.5, opened 62.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:43 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Colorado State or Washington State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Colorado State spread | Washington State spread | Over | Under | Colorado State moneyline | Washington State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +9.5 −110 | −9.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | +285 (best price) | −360 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 −108 | −8.5 −112 (best price) | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | +270 | −335 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 −108 | −9.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −108 (best price) | +280 | −350 |
| Caesars | +9.5 −110 | −9.5 −109 | 67.5 −109 | 67.5 −110 | +285 (best price) | −360 |
| ESPN BET | +9.5 −115 | −9.5 −105 | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | +280 | −360 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 −108 | −9.5 −115 | 66.5 −114 | 66.5 −109 | +280 | −375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 −105 (best price) | −9.5 −115 | 66.5 −110 (best price) | 66.5 −110 | +275 | −375 |
| Fanatics | +9.5 −110 | −9.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | 67.5 −110 | +260 | −330 (best price) |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:43 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Colorado State vs. Washington State?
All three ratings favor Washington State, by 5.8 points. Colorado State's way back in is their pass protection, 3rd in sacks allowed per dropback, against Washington State's pass rush at 134th.
Colorado State with the ball
Washington State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Colorado State and Washington State played lately?
Colorado State
1–4 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 38–64 vs. Boise State Week 10
- L 14–31 at Utah State Week 9
- W 56–49 vs. San Diego State Week 8
- L 27–66 at Texas State Week 7
- L 26–56 vs. Oregon State Week 5
Washington State
0–5 in the last five. Lost 5 straight.
- L 20–26 at San Diego State Week 9
- L 10–31 vs. Boise State Week 8
- L 30–48 at Oregon State Week 7
- L 16–17 at Utah State Week 6
- L 6–26 vs. Fresno State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Colorado State and Washington State?
Colorado State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Washington State
- Caden Pinnick (QB), hasn't played since Week 6 (178 pass attempts in 6 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Colorado State and Washington State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Colorado State and Washington State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Colorado State's and Washington State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Colorado State and Washington State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Colorado State 5.7 points better (103rd to 121st). PRIME has Washington State by 3.3 instead. The two ratings split on Colorado State's offense: 55th in SP+, 31st in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Washington State ahead (86th to 126th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedColorado State 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Colorado State's offense ranks 23rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Washington State defense it faces ranks 76th in EPA per play allowed. Washington State's offense ranks 132nd against Colorado State's 138th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Colorado State's offense against Washington State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Colorado State's big plays: 19th in adjusted explosiveness, against Washington State's 118th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Washington State's defense climbs from 97th to 76th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Colorado State or Washington State?
Colorado State is about as good throwing (21st in EPA per pass) as running (7th). Washington State is better running (100th in EPA per rush) than throwing (135th). Colorado State's run defense ranks 138th, so that's an edge. On third down, Colorado State has the edge: their offense ranks 12th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 100th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Colorado State or Washington State?
Colorado State is outscored by 9.0 a game, and Washington State is outscored by 8.4. Colorado State's offense ranks 20th in scoring, and the Washington State defense it faces ranks 95th in points allowed. Washington State's offense ranks 130th against Colorado State's 138th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Colorado State's offense against Washington State's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseColorado State 12–0
Which offense has the edge?
Colorado State's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 17th in yards per carry, and Washington State's defense ranks 110th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Washington State's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 88th in yards per carry, and Colorado State's defense ranks 138th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseWashington State 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Colorado State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 14th in interception rate, and Washington State's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (84th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontColorado State 7–5
Who wins up front?
Colorado State has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: offensive line, where Colorado State ranks 19th and Washington State 116th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversColorado State 7–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Colorado State is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Washington State is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 8-point edge for Colorado State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentEven 4–4
Which team has more talent?
Colorado State has the more talented roster (75th in the 247Sports talent composite; Washington State is 81st). Colorado State also plays further above their talent: −7.0 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Washington State's −12.1.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSColorado State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Colorado State is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.4). Washington State is −3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.1). Washington State's record is 0.9 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Colorado State traveling?
It's Colorado State's 4th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,585 miles, there and back, 66th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Colorado State wins
56–49Week 8
26–20Week 9
Colorado State beat San Diego State 56–49 in Week 8. San Diego State beat Washington State 26–20 in Week 9.Washington State wins
Can't be done. No chain of wins leads from Washington State to Colorado State.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Colorado State at Washington State: questions people ask
Colorado State vs. Washington State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Washington State, 76% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team.
Where can I watch Colorado State vs. Washington State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 10:30 PM ET at Gesa Field. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of Colorado State vs. Washington State?
SP+ projects Colorado State 31–28. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Colorado State at Washington State?
DraftKings has Washington State −9.5, total 67.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Colorado State vs. Washington State series history?
Washington State leads 3–1. Last meeting: Washington State won 20–3 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Colorado State vs. Washington State?
Colorado State: Hauss Hejny (1,409 passing yards), Jayden Brown (456 rushing yards) and Reginald Vick Jr (463 receiving yards). Washington State: Caden Pinnick (976 passing yards), Kirby Vorhees (294 rushing yards) and Branden Ganashamoorthy (459 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Colorado State at Washington State?
Colorado State's is Hauss Hejny (1,409 passing yards this season); Washington State's is Caden Pinnick (976 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Colorado State at Washington State?
Washington State: Caden Pinnick (QB) hasn't played since Week 6.
Keep going
- Colorado State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Washington State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Fresno State at Texas State: the numbers' pick
- Oregon State at Boise State: the numbers' pick
- Utah State at San Diego State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Pac-12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.