Fresno State vs. Texas State Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayTexas State68% chance to win
- Texas State's run-stopping front has the edge on Fresno State's offensive line. Texas State is above average (44th) in line yards allowed per carry, and Fresno State is bottom-20 (133rd) in line yards per carry.
- Texas State should stop the run. Texas State is top-25 (18th) in yards per carry allowed, and Fresno State is bottom-40 (104th) in yards per carry.
Updated
Fresno State at Texas State
Projected score: Fresno State 30, Texas State 32 (total 62).SP+: Texas State by 1.4, 54% chance to win.PRIME: Texas State by 12.0.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ET
- TV
- The CW Network
- Where
- Bobcat Stadium (TX)
- Weather
- 70°, wind 6 mph
- Line
- Texas State −9.5, total 60.5
- Line movement
- Opened Texas State −7; moved 2.5 points toward Texas State. Total opened 58.5, up 2.
- Series
- First meeting
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Texas State by 1.4 | 54% | 62 |
| PRIME | Texas State by 12.0 | 80% | |
| Elo | Texas State | 56% | |
| The line | Texas State −9.5, opened −7 | 60.5, opened 58.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:43 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Fresno State or Texas State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Fresno State spread | Texas State spread | Over | Under | Fresno State moneyline | Texas State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +9.5 −108 (best price) | −9.5 −112 | 60.5 −108 (best price) | 60.5 −112 | +285 | −360 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 −115 | −9.5 −105 | 60.5 −110 | 60.5 −110 | +255 | −320 (best price) |
| BetMGM | +9.5 −110 | −9.5 −108 | 60.5 −108 (best price) | 60.5 −110 | +280 | −350 |
| Caesars | +9.5 −112 | −9.5 −109 | 60.5 −110 | 60.5 −109 (best price) | +285 | −360 |
| ESPN BET | +8.5 −110 | −8.5 −110 (best price) | 60.5 −110 | 60.5 −110 | +270 | −340 |
| BetRivers | +8.5 −113 | −8.5 −110 (best price) | 60.5 −110 | 60.5 −113 | +255 | −335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 −110 | −8.5 −110 (best price) | 60.5 −110 | 60.5 −110 | +260 | −325 |
| Fanatics | +9.5 −110 | −9.5 −110 | 60.5 −110 | 60.5 −110 | +290 (best price) | −375 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:43 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Fresno State vs. Texas State?
All three ratings favor Texas State, by 12.0 points. Texas State's best matchup is their run-stopping front, 44th in line yards allowed per carry, against Fresno State's offensive line at 133rd. Fresno State's way back in is their passing game, 17th in EPA per pass, against Texas State's pass defense at 103rd.
Fresno State with the ball
Texas State
Fresno StateFresno StateFresno StateFresno StateFresno StateTexas State with the ball
Texas StateTexas StateTexas StateTexas StateTexas StateTexas StateEach row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Fresno State and Texas State played lately?
Fresno State
2–3 in the last five.
- L 10–17 at Utah State Week 10
- W 38–22 vs. Oregon State Week 9
- L 23–26 at San Diego State Week 7
- L 31–38 vs. Boise State Week 6
- W 26–6 at Washington State Week 5
Texas State
3–2 in the last five.
- W 42–21 at Oregon State Week 10
- L 45–46 at Boise State Week 9
- W 20–17 vs. Utah State Week 8
- W 66–27 vs. Colorado State Week 7
- L 29–31 at San Diego State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Fresno State and Texas State?
Fresno State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Texas State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Fresno State and Texas State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Fresno State and Texas State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Fresno State's and Texas State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsTexas State 6–4
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Fresno State and Texas State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Fresno State 1.1 points better (61st to 65th). PRIME has Texas State by 9.5 instead. The two ratings split on Fresno State's defense: 49th in SP+, 89th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Fresno State ahead (40th to 44th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedTexas State 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Fresno State's offense ranks 73rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Texas State defense it faces ranks 71st in EPA per play allowed. Texas State's offense ranks 24th against Fresno State's 36th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Fresno State's passing game: 17th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Texas State's 103rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Texas State's defense climbs from 101st to 71st in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPAFresno State 4–3
Who's more efficient, Fresno State or Texas State?
Fresno State is better throwing (23rd in EPA per pass) than running (131st). Texas State's pass defense ranks 117th, so that's a mismatch. Texas State is better running (4th in EPA per rush) than throwing (23rd). Fresno State's run defense ranks 35th, so that's an edge. On third down, Fresno State has the edge: their offense ranks 69th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 115th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Fresno State or Texas State?
Fresno State outscores FBS opponents by 6.2 a game, and Texas State by 7.8. Fresno State's offense ranks 78th in scoring, and the Texas State defense it faces ranks 115th in points allowed. Texas State's offense ranks 11th against Fresno State's 38th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseTexas State 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Fresno State's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 49th in explosive play rate, and Texas State's defense ranks 74th in explosive plays allowed. Texas State's best matchup is their run game: their offense ranks 6th in yards per carry, and Fresno State's defense ranks 89th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseFresno State 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Texas State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 18th in yards per carry allowed, and Fresno State's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (104th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontTexas State 10–2
Who wins up front?
Texas State has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: offensive line, where Texas State ranks 17th and Fresno State 135th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversFresno State 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Fresno State is +1.0 in turnover margin a game and Texas State is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 7-point edge for Fresno State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Fresno State's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.6 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentTexas State 7–3
Which team has more talent?
Texas State has the more talented roster (83rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Fresno State is 88th). But Fresno State plays further above their talent: +5.9 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Texas State's +4.0.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Fresno State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.1). Texas State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+0.4). Fresno State's record is 1.0 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Fresno State traveling?
It's Fresno State's 6th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 6,469 miles, there and back, 49th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Fresno State wins
38–22Week 9
66–14Week 6
31–29Week 5Fresno State beat Oregon State 38–22 in Week 9. Oregon State beat San Diego State 66–14 in Week 6. San Diego State beat Texas State 31–29 in Week 5.Texas State wins
20–17Week 8
17–10Week 10Texas State beat Utah State 20–17 in Week 8. Utah State beat Fresno State 17–10 in Week 10.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Fresno State at Texas State: questions people ask
Fresno State vs. Texas State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Texas State, 68% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Texas State's best matchup is their run-stopping front, 44th in line yards allowed per carry, against Fresno State's offensive line at 133rd.
Where can I watch Fresno State vs. Texas State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ET at Bobcat Stadium (TX). It's on The CW Network.
What's the projected score of Fresno State vs. Texas State?
SP+ projects Texas State 32–30. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Fresno State at Texas State?
DraftKings has Texas State −9.5, total 60.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Fresno State vs. Texas State series history?
This is the first meeting.
Who are the players to watch in Fresno State vs. Texas State?
Fresno State: Jayden Mandal (1,869 passing yards), Bryson Donelson (422 rushing yards) and Josiah Freeman (632 receiving yards). Texas State: Brad Jackson (2,185 passing yards), Torrance Burgess Jr. (1,107 rushing yards) and Chris Dawn Jr. (527 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Fresno State at Texas State?
Fresno State's is Jayden Mandal (1,869 passing yards this season); Texas State's is Brad Jackson (2,185 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Fresno State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Oregon State at Boise State: the numbers' pick
- Utah State at San Diego State: the numbers' pick
- Colorado State at Washington State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Pac-12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Daily collegefootball chartsin your inbox.
The best charts from the site, by email. Free. Unsubscribe whenever.
Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.