Oregon State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick, Week 11 2026
The numbers sayBoise State83% chance to win
- Boise State should stay on the field on 3rd down. Boise State is top-10 (4th) in 3rd down conversion, and Oregon State is bottom-40 (113th) in 3rd downs allowed.
- Boise State's offense should move it. Boise State is top-10 (1st) in EPA per play, and Oregon State is middle of the pack (87th) in EPA per play allowed.
Updated
Oregon State at Boise State
Projected score: Oregon State 28, Boise State 35 (total 62).SP+: Boise State by 6.8, 69% chance to win.PRIME: Boise State by 13.9.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET
- TV
- USA Net
- Where
- Albertsons Stadium
- Weather
- 56°, fair, wind 8 mph
- Line
- Boise State −13.5, total 65.5
- Line movement
- Opened Boise State −4.5; moved 9 points toward Boise State. Total opened 62.5, up 3.
- Series
- Oregon State leads 6–5
- Last meeting
- Boise State 34–18 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Boise State by 6.8 | 69% | 62 |
| PRIME | Boise State by 13.9 | 84% | |
| Elo | Boise State | 81% | |
| The line | Boise State −13.5, opened −4.5 | 65.5, opened 62.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:21 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Oregon State or Boise State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Oregon State spread | Boise State spread | Over | Under | Oregon State moneyline | Boise State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +13.5 −115 | −13.5 −105 | 65.5 −112 | 65.5 −108 | +390 | −520 |
| FanDuel | +12.5 −105 | −12.5 −115 | 65.5 −105 | 65.5 −115 | +385 | −500 |
| BetMGM | +13 −108 | −13 −110 | 65.5 −110 | 65.5 −108 | +400 (best price) | −525 |
| Caesars | +13.5 −112 | −13.5 −108 | 65.5 −109 | 65.5 −110 | +400 (best price) | −530 |
| ESPN BET | +12.5 −105 | −12.5 −115 | 65.5 −110 | 65.5 −110 | +400 (best price) | −600 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 −107 | −10.5 −117 | 64.5 −121 (best price) | 64.5 −104 | +330 | −455 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 −105 | −10.5 −115 (best price) | 64.5 −125 | 64.5 +105 | +325 | −450 (best price) |
| Fanatics | +13.5 −110 (best price) | −13.5 −110 | 66 −110 | 66 −110 (best price) | +390 | −525 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:21 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Oregon State vs. Boise State?
All three ratings favor Boise State, by 13.9 points, and it isn't close. Boise State's best matchup is their 3rd down offense, 4th in 3rd down conversion, against Oregon State's 3rd down defense at 113th. Oregon State's way back in is their offense, 10th in yards per play, against Boise State's defense at 130th.
Oregon State with the ball
Boise State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Oregon State and Boise State played lately?
Oregon State
3–2 in the last five. Lost 2 straight.
- L 21–42 vs. Texas State Week 10
- L 22–38 at Fresno State Week 9
- W 48–30 vs. Washington State Week 7
- W 66–14 vs. San Diego State Week 6
- W 56–26 at Colorado State Week 5
Boise State
5–0 in the last five. Won 5 straight.
- W 64–38 at Colorado State Week 10
- W 46–45 vs. Texas State Week 9
- W 31–10 at Washington State Week 8
- W 38–31 at Fresno State Week 6
- W 37–18 vs. Utah State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Oregon State and Boise State?
Oregon State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Boise State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Oregon State and Boise State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Oregon State and Boise State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Oregon State's and Boise State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsBoise State 10–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Oregon State and Boise State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Boise State 4.3 points better (29th to 50th). PRIME also has Boise State ahead, by 11.4. Elo, which only sees results, also has Boise State ahead (28th to 60th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedBoise State 12–4
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Oregon State's offense ranks 27th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Boise State defense it faces ranks 63rd in EPA per play allowed. Boise State's offense ranks 1st against Oregon State's 87th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Boise State's run game: 2nd in adjusted EPA per rush, against Oregon State's 82nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPABoise State 8–0
Who's more efficient, Oregon State or Boise State?
Oregon State is about as good throwing (34th in EPA per pass) as running (39th). Boise State is about as good throwing (3rd in EPA per pass) as running (6th). On third down, Boise State has the edge: their offense ranks 14th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 125th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringBoise State 2–0
Who scores more, Oregon State or Boise State?
Oregon State outscores FBS opponents by 11.1 a game, and Boise State by 13.8. Oregon State's offense ranks 12th in scoring, and the Boise State defense it faces ranks 71st in points allowed. Boise State's offense ranks 10th against Oregon State's 90th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseBoise State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Oregon State's best matchup is big plays: their offense ranks 20th in explosive play rate, and Boise State's defense ranks 98th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. Boise State's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 4th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Oregon State's defense ranks 113th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseBoise State 6–5
Which defense has the edge?
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontBoise State 10–2
Who wins up front?
Boise State has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is stuff rate (defense), where Boise State ranks 21st and Oregon State 87th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversOregon State 4–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Oregon State is +0.4 a game and Boise State +0.3.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentBoise State 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Boise State has the more talented roster (74th in the 247Sports talent composite; Oregon State is 76th). Boise State also plays further above their talent: +12.2 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to Oregon State's +8.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
MoneyOregon State 2–1
Which roster costs more?
Boise State's roster is valued at $17.3M, Oregon State's at $12.6M. Dollar for dollar, Oregon State plays better: +11.5 points of SP+ above what their payroll predicts, to +8.8 for Boise State.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Where the data comes from: The NIL Standard, preseason estimates; The NIL Standard's preseason roster values against this season's results.
RECEIPTSBoise State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Oregon State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.4). Boise State is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.8). Oregon State's record is 1.4 wins worse than their play on bad luck, so they're better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Oregon State traveling?
It's Oregon State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 9,973 miles, there and back, 16th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Oregon State wins
66–14Week 6
31–29Week 5
49–35Week 3
45–44Week 5
24–10Week 1
39–31Week 2
34–27Week 1
Oregon State beat San Diego State 66–14 in Week 6. San Diego State beat Texas State 31–29 in Week 5. Texas State beat North Texas 49–35 in Week 3. North Texas beat Tulsa 45–44 in Week 5. Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 24–10 in Week 1. Oklahoma State beat Oregon 39–31 in Week 2. Oregon beat Boise State 34–27 in Week 1.Boise State wins
38–31Week 6
38–22Week 9Boise State beat Fresno State 38–31 in Week 6. Fresno State beat Oregon State 38–22 in Week 9.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Oregon State at Boise State: questions people ask
Oregon State vs. Boise State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Boise State, 83% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Boise State's best matchup is their 3rd down offense, 4th in 3rd down conversion, against Oregon State's 3rd down defense at 113th.
Where can I watch Oregon State vs. Boise State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ET at Albertsons Stadium. It's on USA Net.
What's the projected score of Oregon State vs. Boise State?
SP+ projects Boise State 35–28. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Oregon State at Boise State?
DraftKings has Boise State −13.5, total 65.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Oregon State vs. Boise State series history?
Oregon State leads 6–5. Last meeting: Boise State won 34–18 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Oregon State vs. Boise State?
Oregon State: Braden Atkinson (3,148 passing yards), AJ Newberry (506 rushing yards) and Jesse Legree (1,209 receiving yards). Boise State: Maddux Madsen (1,681 passing yards), Dylan Riley (1,241 rushing yards) and Rasean Jones (661 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Oregon State at Boise State?
Oregon State's is Braden Atkinson (3,148 passing yards this season); Boise State's is Maddux Madsen (1,681 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Oregon State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Boise State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Fresno State at Texas State: the numbers' pick
- Utah State at San Diego State: the numbers' pick
- Colorado State at Washington State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Pac-12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.