Utah State vs. San Diego State Prediction, Week 11 2026
68% chance to win
- Utah State should stop the run. Utah State is top-25 (11th) in EPA per rush allowed, and San Diego State is bottom-40 (110th) in EPA per rush.
- Utah State's defense should win on early downs. Utah State is top-25 (13th) in SUPLEX allowed, and San Diego State is bottom-40 (109th) in SUPLEX.
San Diego State is without QB Jayden Denegal (902 passing yards). San Diego State has played 2 games without Denegal and gone 1–1, losing by 1 a game (they lost by 10 ppg with him). We still believe in the run game.
Updated
Utah State at San Diego State
Projected score: Utah State 21, San Diego State 24 (total 45).SP+: San Diego State by 3.1, 59% chance to win.PRIME: Utah State by 8.3, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 14, 9:30 PM ET
- TV
- USA Net
- Where
- Snapdragon Stadium
- Weather
- 66°, cloudy, wind 2 mph
- Line
- Utah State −2.5, total 42.5
- Line movement
- Total opened 44.5, down 2.
- Series
- San Diego State leads 13–5
- Last meeting
- Utah State 41–20 in 2024
- San Diego State injuries
- Denegal (QB), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | San Diego State by 3.1 | 59% | 45 |
| PRIME | Utah State by 8.3 | 72% | |
| Elo | Utah State | 63% | |
| The line | Utah State −2.5 | 42.5, opened 44.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Mon, Nov 9, 5:43 PM ET.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Utah State or San Diego State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
What do the sportsbooks say?
| Sportsbook | Utah State spread | San Diego State spread | Over | Under | Utah State moneyline | San Diego State moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | −2.5 −112 | +2.5 −108 | 42.5 −108 | 42.5 −112 | −135 | +114 |
| FanDuel | −2.5 −120 | +2.5 +100 (best price) | 42.5 −105 | 42.5 −115 | −138 | +116 |
| BetMGM | −2.5 −112 | +2.5 −105 | 42.5 −108 | 42.5 −110 (best price) | −140 | +115 |
| Caesars | −2.5 −115 | +2.5 −105 | 42 −109 | 42 −110 | −137 | +116 |
| ESPN BET | −2.5 −120 | +2.5 +100 (best price) | 42.5 −110 | 42.5 −110 (best price) | −140 | +120 (best price) |
| BetRivers | −1.5 −114 | +1.5 −109 | 41.5 −109 (best price) | 41.5 −114 | −127 | +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 −110 (best price) | +1.5 −110 | 41.5 −110 | 41.5 −110 | −125 (best price) | +100 |
| Fanatics | −2.5 −115 | +2.5 −105 | 42 −110 | 42 −110 | −140 | +115 |
Odds updated Mon., Nov. 9, 5:43 PM ET. The best price on each bet is marked. Prices move fast, so check the book before you bet. Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Utah State vs. San Diego State?
All three ratings favor Utah State, by 8.3 points. Utah State's best matchup is their run defense, 11th in EPA per rush allowed, against San Diego State's run game at 110th. San Diego State's way back in is their big-play defense, 31st in explosive plays allowed, against Utah State's big-play offense at 97th. We left out the edges built on Denegal, who's out.
Utah State with the ball
San Diego State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026; CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Recent form
How have Utah State and San Diego State played lately?
Utah State
3–2 in the last five. Won 2 straight.
- W 17–10 vs. Fresno State Week 10
- W 31–14 vs. Colorado State Week 9
- L 17–20 at Texas State Week 8
- W 17–16 vs. Washington State Week 6
- L 18–37 at Boise State Week 5
San Diego State
3–2 in the last five.
- W 26–20 vs. Washington State Week 9
- L 49–56 at Colorado State Week 8
- W 26–23 vs. Fresno State Week 7
- L 14–66 at Oregon State Week 6
- W 31–29 vs. Texas State Week 5
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Utah State and San Diego State?
Utah State
- Eli Wood (WR), hasn't played since Week 8 (37 catches in 7 games before that)
- Grady Brosterhous (QB), hasn't played since Week 8 (180 pass attempts in 7 games before that)
San Diego State
- Denegal (QB), out. Ankle, hurt against Oregon State. Stone Saunders, a Kentucky transfer, makes his second start against Washington State. (as of Oct 27, 2026)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Utah State and San Diego State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Utah State and San Diego State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
The players in charts
How Utah State's and San Diego State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Nov 7, 2026.
RatingsUtah State 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Utah State and San Diego State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has San Diego State 0.6 points better (104th to 105th). PRIME has Utah State by 10.8 instead. The two ratings split on Utah State's defense: 67th in SP+, 24th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Utah State ahead (84th to 114th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Where the data comes from: SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update), last pulled Nov 2, 2026; PRIME (primecfb.com), updated Nov 9, 2026; Elo from CollegeFootballData.com, games through Nov 7, 2026.
Opponent-adjustedUtah State 11–5
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Utah State's offense ranks 115th in adjusted EPA per play, and the San Diego State defense it faces ranks 80th in EPA per play allowed. San Diego State's offense ranks 120th against Utah State's 29th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Utah State's offensive line in the run game: 85th in adjusted line yards per carry, against San Diego State's 125th-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
EPASan Diego State 5–3
Who's more efficient, Utah State or San Diego State?
Utah State is about as good throwing (122nd in EPA per pass) as running (108th). San Diego State is better running (98th in EPA per rush) than throwing (117th). Utah State's run defense ranks 15th, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, San Diego State has the edge: their offense ranks 37th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense they face ranks 68th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com advanced stats, games through Nov 7, 2026.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Utah State or San Diego State?
Utah State is outscored by 3.7 a game, and San Diego State is outscored by 7.9. Utah State's offense ranks 134th in scoring, and the San Diego State defense it faces ranks 129th in points allowed. San Diego State's offense ranks 80th against Utah State's 38th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
OffenseSan Diego State 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Utah State's best matchup is third downs: their offense ranks 83rd in 3rd down conversion rate, and San Diego State's defense ranks 133rd in 3rd down conversions allowed. San Diego State has no clear edge here. Their best is 3rd down conversion rate, 116th, against a defense ranked 102nd in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
DefenseUtah State 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Utah State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 7th in explosive plays allowed, and San Diego State's offense is bottom-40 in explosive play rate (115th). That's a mismatch. San Diego State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 31st in explosive plays allowed, and Utah State's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (97th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
Up frontUtah State 8–4
Who wins up front?
Utah State has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is line yards allowed per carry, where Utah State ranks 9th and San Diego State 132nd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TurnoversSan Diego State 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Utah State is −0.3 a game and San Diego State −0.2.
Per game, from play-by-play.
Where the data comes from: play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com (the public cfbfastR files), games through Nov 7, 2026.
TalentSan Diego State 7–3
Which team has more talent?
San Diego State has the more talented roster (89th in the 247Sports talent composite; Utah State is 123rd). But Utah State plays further above their talent: −1.8 points of SP+ beyond what their roster predicts, to San Diego State's −5.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Where the data comes from: 247Sports, preseason; 247Sports talent composite against SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026); CollegeFootballData.com returning production, preseason; 247Sports recruiting rankings, via CollegeFootballData.com.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Utah State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−0.9). San Diego State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.4). San Diego State's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of their play on luck alone, so they're not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Where the data comes from: our split of every game result, games through Nov 7, 2026, using SP+ (last pulled Nov 2, 2026), the 247Sports talent composite and CollegeFootballData.com returning production.
The trip
How far is Utah State traveling?
It's Utah State's 5th road trip of the season. Counting this one, they'll have traveled 5,586 miles, there and back, 66th of 138 in FBS.
The transitive property
The shortest chain of real results this season that “proves” each team wins.
Utah State wins
31–14Week 9
56–49Week 8
Utah State beat Colorado State 31–14 in Week 9. Colorado State beat San Diego State 56–49 in Week 8.San Diego State wins
31–29Week 5
20–17Week 8San Diego State beat Texas State 31–29 in Week 5. Texas State beat Utah State 20–17 in Week 8.Each arrow in a chain is a win, with the score and the week. At a neutral site, both teams travel.
Where the data comes from: CollegeFootballData.com schedules and results, games through Nov 7, 2026. Miles as the crow flies, campus to stadium.
FAQ
Utah State at San Diego State: questions people ask
Utah State vs. San Diego State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Utah State, 68% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME favor the same team. Utah State's best matchup is their run defense, 11th in EPA per rush allowed, against San Diego State's run game at 110th.
Where can I watch Utah State vs. San Diego State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 14, 9:30 PM ET at Snapdragon Stadium. It's on USA Net.
What's the projected score of Utah State vs. San Diego State?
SP+ projects San Diego State 24–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Utah State at San Diego State?
DraftKings has Utah State −2.5, total 42.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Utah State vs. San Diego State series history?
San Diego State leads 13–5. Last meeting: Utah State won 41–20 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Utah State vs. San Diego State?
Utah State: Grady Brosterhous (1,138 passing yards), Javen Jacobs (552 rushing yards) and Eli Wood (479 receiving yards). San Diego State: Denegal (902 passing yards), Javion Kinnard (613 rushing yards) and Jaylon Hawkins (361 receiving yards). Season totals through Nov 7, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Utah State at San Diego State?
Utah State's is Grady Brosterhous (1,138 passing yards this season); San Diego State's is Denegal (902 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Utah State at San Diego State?
Utah State: Eli Wood (WR) hasn't played since Week 8; Grady Brosterhous (QB) hasn't played since Week 8. San Diego State: Denegal (QB), out.
Keep going
- Utah State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- San Diego State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Fresno State at Texas State: the numbers' pick
- Oregon State at Boise State: the numbers' pick
- Colorado State at Washington State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 11 pick
- The Pac-12: standings, stats and rankings
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Numbers through the games of Nov 7, 2026. SP+ as of Nov 2, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team they favor on average.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Recent form
Each team's last five games before this one, most recent first.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.