Alabama vs. LSU Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
66% chance to win
- LSU should get home. LSU is top-10 (1st) in sack rate, and Alabama is bottom-40 (102nd) in sacks allowed per dropback.
- LSU should stay on the field on 3rd down. LSU is top-25 (11th) in 3rd down conversion, and Alabama is middle of the pack (73rd) in 3rd downs allowed.
Alabama at LSU
Projected score: Alabama 24, LSU 30 (total 54).SP+: LSU by 6.8, 69% chance to win.PRIME: LSU by 8.3.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET
- TV
- ABC
- Where
- Tiger Stadium (LA)
- Line
- LSU −4.5, total 52.5
- Line movement
- Opened LSU −3.5; moved 1 point toward LSU. Total opened 54.5, down 2.
- Series
- Alabama leads 58–26–5
- Last meeting
- Alabama 20–9 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | LSU by 6.8 | 69% | 54 |
| PRIME | LSU by 8.3 | 72% | |
| Elo | LSU | 58% | |
| The line | LSU −4.5, opened −3.5 | 52.5, opened 54.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Alabama or LSU?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Alabama vs. LSU?
All three ratings favor LSU, by 6.8 to 8.3 points. LSU's best matchup is its pass rush, 1st in sack rate, against Alabama's pass protection at 102nd. Alabama's way back in is its takeaway defense, 3rd in interceptions per pass, against LSU's ball security at 85th.
Alabama with the ball
LSU with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Alabama and LSU?
Alabama
- Ryan Coleman-Williams (#1), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Zabien Brown (DB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Desmond Umeozulu (#9), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- EJ Crowell (RB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. (#21), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Cayden Jones (#23), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Nick Sherman (#29), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Racin Delgatty (#55), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jeremiah Beaman (#92), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Terrance Green (DL), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Ryan Williams (WR), hasn't played since Week 6 (18 catches in 6 games before that)
LSU
- Whit Weeks (#7), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Dashawn Spears (S), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Phillip Wright III (#15), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Charles Ross II (#26), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Richard Anderson (#88), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Alabama and LSU compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Alabama and LSU are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Alabama's and LSU's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsLSU 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Alabama and LSU?
On a neutral field, SP+ has LSU 4.3 points better (3rd to 7th). PRIME also has LSU ahead, by 5.8. Elo, which only sees results, also has LSU ahead (7th to 9th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedEven 8–8
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Alabama's offense ranks 13th in adjusted EPA per play, and the LSU defense it faces ranks 4th in EPA per play allowed. LSU's offense ranks 7th against Alabama's 5th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is LSU's passing game: 3rd in adjusted EPA per pass, against Alabama's 46th-ranked defense.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPALSU 6–2
Who's more efficient, Alabama or LSU?
Alabama is better throwing (17th in EPA per pass) than running (37th). LSU's pass defense ranks 7th, so that's strength on strength. LSU is better throwing (10th in EPA per pass) than running (47th). Alabama's pass defense ranks 56th, so that's an edge. On third down, LSU has the edge: its offense ranks 12th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 42nd.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringLSU 2–0
Who scores more, Alabama or LSU?
Alabama outscores FBS opponents by 17.0 a game, and LSU by 24.1. Alabama's offense ranks 12th in scoring, and the LSU defense it faces ranks 16th in points allowed. LSU's offense ranks 7th against Alabama's 45th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is LSU's offense against Alabama's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseLSU 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Alabama has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 17th, against a defense ranked 18th in explosive plays allowed. LSU's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 11th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Alabama's defense ranks 73rd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseLSU 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Alabama's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 3rd in interception rate, and LSU's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (85th). That's a mismatch. LSU's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 1st in sack rate, and Alabama's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (102nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontLSU 10–2
Who wins up front?
LSU has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where LSU ranks 48th and Alabama 117th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversAlabama 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Alabama is +0.9 in turnover margin a game and LSU is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Alabama. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentAlabama 6–5
Which team has more talent?
Alabama has the more talented roster (4th in the 247Sports talent composite; LSU is 8th). But LSU plays further above its talent: +8.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Alabama's +1.4.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyAlabama 3–0
Which roster costs more?
LSU's roster is valued at $41.4M, Alabama's at $33.5M. Dollar for dollar, Alabama plays better: +4.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +4.2 for LSU.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Alabama is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.3). LSU is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.9). LSU's record is 1.2 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Alabama at LSU: questions people ask
Alabama vs. LSU prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick LSU, 66% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. LSU's best matchup is its pass rush, 1st in sack rate, against Alabama's pass protection at 102nd.
Where can I watch Alabama vs. LSU, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET at Tiger Stadium (LA). It's on ABC.
What's the projected score of Alabama vs. LSU?
SP+ projects LSU 30–24. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Alabama at LSU?
DraftKings has LSU −4.5, total 52.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Alabama vs. LSU series history?
Alabama leads 58–26–5. Last meeting: Alabama won 20–9 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Alabama vs. LSU?
Alabama: Keelon Russell (2,077 passing yards), Daniel Hill (332 rushing yards) and Lotzeir Brooks (469 receiving yards). LSU: Sam Leavitt (2,177 passing yards), Dilin Jones (653 rushing yards) and Jackson Harris (634 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Alabama at LSU?
Alabama's is Keelon Russell (2,077 passing yards this season); LSU's is Sam Leavitt (2,177 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Alabama at LSU?
Alabama: Ryan Williams (WR) hasn't played since Week 6.
Keep going
- Alabama: every stat, rank and the schedule
- LSU: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas at Missouri: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas at Auburn: the numbers' pick
- Texas A&M at South Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.