Arkansas vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
73% chance to win
- Auburn should run it. Auburn is top-25 (16th) in EPA per rush, and Arkansas is bottom-40 (111th) in EPA per rush allowed.
- Auburn's run defense has the edge on Arkansas' run game. Auburn is above average (39th) in yards per carry allowed, and Arkansas is bottom-20 (128th) in yards per carry.
Arkansas at Auburn
Projected score: Arkansas 21, Auburn 31 (total 52).SP+: Auburn by 9.4, 75% chance to win.PRIME: Auburn by 9.5.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 12:45 PM ET
- TV
- SEC Network
- Where
- Jordan-Hare Stadium
- Series
- Auburn leads 21–13–1
- Last meeting
- Auburn 33–24 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Auburn by 9.4 | 75% | 52 |
| PRIME | Auburn by 9.5 | 75% | |
| Elo | Auburn | 70% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Arkansas or Auburn?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Arkansas vs. Auburn?
All three ratings favor Auburn, by 9.4 to 9.5 points. Auburn's best matchup is its run game, 16th in EPA per rush, against Arkansas' run defense at 111th. Arkansas' way back in is its 3rd down offense, 68th in 3rd down conversion, against Auburn's 3rd down defense at 101st.
Arkansas with the ball
Auburn with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Arkansas and Auburn?
Arkansas
- Braydon Lee (#3), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Maddox Lassiter (#47), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Caden Kitler (#52), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Gavin Garretson (#89), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Chris Marshall (WR), last game: game time decision (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Auburn
- Jeremiah Koger (WR), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tai Buster (#71), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Hunter Herring (#85), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Arkansas and Auburn compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Arkansas and Auburn are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Arkansas' and Auburn's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsAuburn 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Arkansas and Auburn?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Auburn 6.9 points better (51st to 71st). PRIME also has Auburn ahead, by 7.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Auburn ahead (47th to 63rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedAuburn 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Arkansas' offense ranks 79th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Auburn defense it faces ranks 49th in EPA per play allowed. Auburn's offense ranks 50th against Arkansas' 98th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Auburn's offense against Arkansas' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Auburn's run game: 16th in adjusted EPA per rush, against Arkansas' 111th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Auburn's offense climbs from 79th to 50th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAAuburn 6–2
Who's more efficient, Arkansas or Auburn?
Arkansas is better throwing (83rd in EPA per pass) than running (121st). Auburn's pass defense ranks 82nd. Auburn is better running (37th in EPA per rush) than throwing (113th). Arkansas' run defense ranks 130th, so that's a mismatch.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringAuburn 2–0
Who scores more, Arkansas or Auburn?
Arkansas is outscored by 8.0 a game, and Auburn is outscored by 2.7. Arkansas' offense ranks 125th in scoring, and the Auburn defense it faces ranks 94th in points allowed. Auburn's offense ranks 93rd against Arkansas' 101st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseAuburn 7–5
Which offense has the edge?
Arkansas' best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 68th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Auburn's defense ranks 101st in 3rd down conversions allowed. Auburn's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 48th in explosive play rate, and Arkansas' defense ranks 121st in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseAuburn 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Arkansas' defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 38th in interception rate, and Auburn's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (68th). Auburn's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 39th in yards per carry allowed, and Arkansas' offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (128th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontAuburn 10–2
Who wins up front?
Auburn has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Auburn ranks 42nd and Arkansas 132nd.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversAuburn 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Arkansas is +0.1 a game and Auburn +0.3.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentAuburn 8–3
Which team has more talent?
Auburn has the more talented roster (18th in the 247Sports talent composite; Arkansas is 36th). Auburn also plays further above its talent: −3.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Arkansas' −5.6.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyAuburn 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Auburn's roster is valued at $27.7M, Arkansas' at $23.4M. Auburn also plays better per dollar: −5.7 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −9.0 for Arkansas.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSAuburn 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Arkansas is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.2). Auburn is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.6). Auburn's record is running 0.8 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Arkansas at Auburn: questions people ask
Arkansas vs. Auburn prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Auburn, 73% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Auburn's best matchup is its run game, 16th in EPA per rush, against Arkansas' run defense at 111th.
Where can I watch Arkansas vs. Auburn, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:45 PM ET at Jordan-Hare Stadium. It's on SEC Network.
What's the projected score of Arkansas vs. Auburn?
SP+ projects Auburn 31–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Arkansas vs. Auburn series history?
Auburn leads 21–13–1. Last meeting: Auburn won 33–24 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Arkansas vs. Auburn?
Arkansas: KJ Jackson (1,478 passing yards), Braylen Russell (204 rushing yards) and Chris Marshall (601 receiving yards). Auburn: Byrum Brown (1,592 passing yards), Jeremiah Cobb (355 rushing yards) and Keshaun Singleton (448 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Arkansas at Auburn?
Arkansas' is KJ Jackson (1,478 passing yards this season); Auburn's is Byrum Brown (1,592 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Arkansas: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Auburn: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas at Missouri: the numbers' pick
- Texas A&M at South Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at LSU: the numbers' pick
- Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.