Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
61% chance to win
- South Carolina's run defense has the edge on Texas A&M's run game. South Carolina is above average (27th) in yards per carry allowed, and Texas A&M is bottom-40 (100th) in yards per carry.
- South Carolina's big-play offense has the edge on Texas A&M's big-play defense. South Carolina is above average (36th) in explosive play rate, and Texas A&M is middle of the pack (87th) in explosive plays allowed.
Texas A&M at South Carolina
Projected score: Texas A&M 26, South Carolina 30 (total 57).SP+: South Carolina by 3.8, 61% chance to win.PRIME: South Carolina by 7.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- Williams-Brice Stadium
- Series
- Texas A&M leads 10–2
- Last meeting
- Texas A&M 31–30 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | South Carolina by 3.8 | 61% | 57 |
| PRIME | South Carolina by 7.1 | 69% | |
| Elo | South Carolina | 54% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Texas A&M or South Carolina?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Texas A&M vs. South Carolina?
All three ratings favor South Carolina, by 3.8 to 7.1 points. South Carolina's best matchup is its run defense, 27th in yards per carry allowed, against Texas A&M's run game at 100th. Texas A&M's way back in is its offense, 39th in success rate, against South Carolina's defense at 72nd.
Texas A&M with the ball
South Carolina with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Texas A&M and South Carolina?
Texas A&M
- Terry Bussey (#6), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Kelshaun Johnson (#11), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Blake Ivy (#52), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Anto Saka (DE), last game: game time decision (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
South Carolina
- Quay'sheed Scott (#12), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jayden Sellers (#17), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jawarn Howell (RB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Kobby Sakyi-Prah (#41), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Josiah Thompson (#74), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Dayne Arnett (#75), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Seth Smith (#78), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Texas A&M and South Carolina compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Texas A&M and South Carolina are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Texas A&M's and South Carolina's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsSouth Carolina 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Texas A&M and South Carolina?
On a neutral field, SP+ has South Carolina 1.3 points better (28th to 34th). PRIME also has South Carolina ahead, by 4.6. Elo, which only sees results, has Texas A&M ahead (29th to 34th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedSouth Carolina 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Texas A&M's offense ranks 99th in adjusted EPA per play, and the South Carolina defense it faces ranks 76th in EPA per play allowed. South Carolina's offense ranks 20th against Texas A&M's 28th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is South Carolina's offensive line in the run game: 6th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Texas A&M's 41st-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and South Carolina's offense climbs from 50th to 20th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Texas A&M or South Carolina?
Texas A&M is better running (55th in EPA per rush) than throwing (110th). South Carolina's run defense ranks 33rd. South Carolina is better running (13th in EPA per rush) than throwing (89th). Texas A&M's run defense ranks 21st, so that's strength on strength. On third down, Texas A&M has the edge: its offense ranks 31st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 86th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Texas A&M or South Carolina?
Texas A&M outscores FBS opponents by 9.3 a game, and South Carolina by 11.7. Texas A&M's offense ranks 70th in scoring, and the South Carolina defense it faces ranks 74th in points allowed. South Carolina's offense ranks 18th against Texas A&M's 27th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseSouth Carolina 11–1
Which offense has the edge?
Texas A&M's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 39th in success rate, and South Carolina's defense ranks 72nd in success rate allowed. South Carolina's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 36th in explosive play rate, and Texas A&M's defense ranks 87th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseTexas A&M 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
South Carolina's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 27th in yards per carry allowed, and Texas A&M's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (100th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontSouth Carolina 10–2
Who wins up front?
South Carolina has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where South Carolina ranks 28th and Texas A&M 106th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversTexas A&M 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Texas A&M is 0.0 in turnover margin a game and South Carolina is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Texas A&M. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentTexas A&M 8–3
Which team has more talent?
Texas A&M has the more talented roster (7th in the 247Sports talent composite; South Carolina is 15th). But South Carolina plays further above its talent: −1.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Texas A&M's −7.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneySouth Carolina 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Texas A&M's roster is valued at $33.3M, South Carolina's at $23.2M. Dollar for dollar, South Carolina plays better: +2.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −6.6 for Texas A&M.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSSouth Carolina 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Texas A&M is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.5). South Carolina is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.4).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Texas A&M at South Carolina: questions people ask
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick South Carolina, 61% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. South Carolina's best matchup is its run defense, 27th in yards per carry allowed, against Texas A&M's run game at 100th.
Where can I watch Texas A&M vs. South Carolina, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM ET at Williams-Brice Stadium. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of Texas A&M vs. South Carolina?
SP+ projects South Carolina 30–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Texas A&M vs. South Carolina series history?
Texas A&M leads 10–2. Last meeting: Texas A&M won 31–30 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Texas A&M vs. South Carolina?
Texas A&M: Marcel Reed (1,404 passing yards), KJ Edwards (360 rushing yards) and Isaiah Horton (314 receiving yards). South Carolina: Lanorris Sellers (1,594 passing yards), Matthew Fuller (509 rushing yards) and Mazeo Bennett (334 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Texas A&M at South Carolina?
Texas A&M's is Marcel Reed (1,404 passing yards this season); South Carolina's is Lanorris Sellers (1,594 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Texas A&M: every stat, rank and the schedule
- South Carolina: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas at Missouri: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas at Auburn: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at LSU: the numbers' pick
- Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
Picks and retrosin your inboxevery week.
The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.