Texas vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayTexas67% chance to win
- Texas' defense should win on early downs. Texas is top-10 (3rd) in SUPLEX allowed, and Missouri is middle of the pack (88th) in SUPLEX.
- Texas' defense should hold up. Texas is top-10 (8th) in success rate allowed, and Missouri is bottom-40 (93rd) in success rate.
Texas is without EDGE Colin Simmons (8 sacks and 1 takeaway). Texas has played 2 games without Simmons and won both by 18 (it won by 12 ppg with him). We still believe in the defense.
Texas at Missouri
Projected score: Texas 24, Missouri 21 (total 45).SP+: Texas by 3.7, 60% chance to win.PRIME: Texas by 10.4.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET
- Where
- Memorial Stadium
- Line
- Texas −3.5, total 49.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Texas leads 17–4
- Last meeting
- Texas 33–16 in 2017
- Texas injuries
- Simmons (EDGE), out
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Texas by 3.7 | 60% | 45 |
| PRIME | Texas by 10.4 | 77% | |
| Elo | Texas | 64% | |
| The line | Texas −3.5 | 49.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Texas or Missouri?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Texas vs. Missouri?
All three ratings favor Texas, by 3.7 to 10.4 points. Texas' best matchup is its early-down defense, 3rd in SUPLEX allowed, against Missouri's early-down offense at 88th. Missouri's way back in is its run-stopping front, 17th in line yards allowed per carry, against Texas' offensive line at 98th. We left out the edges built on Simmons, who's out.
Texas with the ball
Missouri with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Texas and Missouri?
Texas
- Simmons (EDGE), out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31). Ankle sprain in the fourth quarter of the Oct. 17 loss to Florida; early reports said three to four weeks (Orange Bloods, via Saturday Down South). Ruled out for Ole Miss on Oct. 24; the SEC report lists him out for this week (update 2, Oct. 31). He leads the nation in sacks and tackles for loss. (as of Oct 31, 2026)
- Trevor Goosby (#74), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Richard Wesley (#99), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Daylan Smothers (RB), hasn't played since Week 7 (65 carries in 5 games before that)
Missouri
- Malae Fonoti (#21), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Josh Atkins (#54), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Gavin Hoffman (#88), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Texas and Missouri compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Texas and Missouri are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Texas' and Missouri's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsTexas 10–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Texas and Missouri?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Texas 6.2 points better (8th to 18th). PRIME also has Texas ahead, by 12.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Texas ahead (11th to 25th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedTexas 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Texas' offense ranks 78th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Missouri defense it faces ranks 25th in EPA per play allowed. Missouri's offense ranks 46th against Texas' 12th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. Adjust for opponents and Texas' offense climbs from 106th to 78th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Texas or Missouri?
Texas is better throwing (77th in EPA per pass) than running (111th). Missouri's pass defense ranks 44th, so the defense has the better of it. Missouri is better throwing (24th in EPA per pass) than running (101st). Texas' pass defense ranks 27th, so that's strength on strength. On third down, Texas has the edge: its offense ranks 86th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 118th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Texas or Missouri?
Texas outscores FBS opponents by 13.7 a game, and Missouri by 13.1. Texas' offense ranks 53rd in scoring, and the Missouri defense it faces ranks 23rd in points allowed. Missouri's offense ranks 51st against Texas' 19th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseMissouri 8–4
Which offense has the edge?
Texas has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 88th, against a defense ranked 105th in explosive plays allowed. Missouri has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 44th, against a defense ranked 22nd in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseTexas 10–1
Which defense has the edge?
Texas' defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 3rd in SUPLEX allowed, and Missouri's offense is middle of the pack in SUPLEX (88th). That's a mismatch. Missouri's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 47th in sack rate, and Texas' offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (119th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontTexas 6–5
Who wins up front?
Texas has the better number in 6 of 11. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Missouri ranks 57th and Texas 135th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversMissouri 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Missouri is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Texas is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Missouri. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentTexas 10–1
Which team has more talent?
Texas has the more talented roster (2nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Missouri is 19th). But Missouri plays further above its talent: +5.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Texas' +0.2.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyMissouri 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Texas' roster is valued at $47.5M, Missouri's at $26.4M. Dollar for dollar, Missouri plays better: +2.9 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −3.6 for Texas.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Texas is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.6). Missouri is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.2).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Texas at Missouri: questions people ask
Texas vs. Missouri prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Texas, 67% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Texas' best matchup is its early-down defense, 3rd in SUPLEX allowed, against Missouri's early-down offense at 88th.
Where can I watch Texas vs. Missouri, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium. The TV network hasn't been announced yet.
What's the projected score of Texas vs. Missouri?
SP+ projects Texas 24–21. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Texas at Missouri?
DraftKings has Texas −3.5, total 49.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Texas vs. Missouri series history?
Texas leads 17–4. Last meeting: Texas won 33–16 in 2017.
Who are the players to watch in Texas vs. Missouri?
Texas: Arch Manning (1,542 passing yards), Raleek Brown (407 rushing yards) and Ryan Wingo (464 receiving yards). Missouri: Austin Simmons (1,786 passing yards), Jamal Roberts (845 rushing yards) and Cayden Lee (670 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Texas at Missouri?
Texas' is Arch Manning (1,542 passing yards this season); Missouri's is Austin Simmons (1,786 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Texas at Missouri?
Texas: Simmons (EDGE), out; Daylan Smothers (RB) hasn't played since Week 7.
Keep going
- Texas: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Missouri: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Arkansas at Auburn: the numbers' pick
- Texas A&M at South Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at LSU: the numbers' pick
- Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.