Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Week 10 2026
74% chance to win
- Mississippi State's run defense has the edge on Vanderbilt's run game. Mississippi State is above average (41st) in yards per carry allowed, and Vanderbilt is bottom-20 (119th) in yards per carry.
- Mississippi State should run it. Mississippi State is top-25 (25th) in EPA per rush, and Vanderbilt is middle of the pack (82nd) in EPA per rush allowed.
Mississippi State is without QB Kamario Taylor (1,466 passing yards). Mississippi State has played one game without Taylor and lost it by 28 (it won by 8 ppg with him). One game isn't enough to know yet.
That knocks the pick down a tier, from Lean to Stay away.
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State
Projected score: Vanderbilt 26, Mississippi State 36 (total 63).SP+: Mississippi State by 9.9, 76% chance to win.PRIME: Mississippi State by 15.1.
- Kickoff
- Sat, Nov 7, 4:15 PM ET
- TV
- SEC Network
- Where
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Series
- Mississippi State leads 15–7–2
- Last meeting
- Mississippi State 45–6 in 2021
- Mississippi State injuries
- Taylor (QB), out for season
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Mississippi State by 9.9 | 76% | 63 |
| PRIME | Mississippi State by 15.1 | 86% | |
| Elo | Mississippi State | 60% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Vanderbilt or Mississippi State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State?
All three ratings favor Mississippi State, by 9.9 to 15.1 points. Mississippi State's best matchup is its run defense, 41st in yards per carry allowed, against Vanderbilt's run game at 119th. Vanderbilt's way back in is its 3rd down offense, 33rd in 3rd down conversion, against Mississippi State's 3rd down defense at 114th. We left out the edges built on Taylor, who's out.
Vanderbilt with the ball
Mississippi State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Vanderbilt and Mississippi State?
Vanderbilt
- Blaze Berlowitz (QB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jaylin Lackey (#2), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Brian Allen Jr. (#10), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Josiah Broxton (#18), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Jamison Curtis (#20), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Gunner Givens (#50), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Aaron Bryant (#55), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Kahden Smith (#81), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
- Nikhil Jefferson (#93), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 24)
Mississippi State
- Taylor (QB), out for season (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31). Toe, aggravated in the Oct. 24 loss to Oklahoma; season-ending surgery (Mississippi State statement, Oct. 27). Billy Puckett, who replaced him against Oklahoma, is in line to start. The SEC report lists him out; we keep "out for season" because of the school's statement. (as of Oct 29, 2026)
- Isaac Smith (#2), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Jalen Smith (LB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Tyler Lockhart (LB), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Ayden Williams (#11), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Trevion Williams (DL), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- DJ Chester (#78), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
- Diesel Moye (#99), last game: out (SEC availability report, game day, Oct 31)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Vanderbilt and Mississippi State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Vanderbilt and Mississippi State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Vanderbilt's and Mississippi State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsMississippi State 9–0
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Vanderbilt and Mississippi State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Mississippi State 7.4 points better (52nd to 77th). PRIME also has Mississippi State ahead, by 12.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Mississippi State ahead (57th to 60th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedMississippi State 15–1
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Vanderbilt's offense ranks 108th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Mississippi State defense it faces ranks 75th in EPA per play allowed. Mississippi State's offense ranks 27th against Vanderbilt's 92nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Mississippi State's offense against Vanderbilt's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Mississippi State's efficiency: 11th in adjusted success rate, against Vanderbilt's 96th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Mississippi State's offense climbs from 67th to 27th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAMississippi State 5–3
Who's more efficient, Vanderbilt or Mississippi State?
Vanderbilt is about as good throwing (70th in EPA per pass) as running (83rd). Mississippi State is about as good throwing (63rd in EPA per pass) as running (58th). On third down, Vanderbilt has the edge: its offense ranks 19th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 118th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringMississippi State 2–0
Who scores more, Vanderbilt or Mississippi State?
Vanderbilt is outscored by 7.4 a game, and Mississippi State is outscored by 1.5. Vanderbilt's offense ranks 105th in scoring, and the Mississippi State defense it faces ranks 103rd in points allowed. Mississippi State's offense ranks 82nd against Vanderbilt's 113th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Mississippi State's offense against Vanderbilt's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseEven 6–6
Which offense has the edge?
Vanderbilt's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 33rd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Mississippi State's defense ranks 114th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Mississippi State's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 32nd in yards per carry, and Vanderbilt's defense ranks 87th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseVanderbilt 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Mississippi State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 41st in yards per carry allowed, and Vanderbilt's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (119th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontMississippi State 8–4
Who wins up front?
Mississippi State has the better number in 8 of 12. The biggest gap is open-field yards per carry, where Mississippi State ranks 61st and Vanderbilt 129th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversMississippi State 5–2
Who wins the turnover battle?
Mississippi State is −0.6 in turnover margin a game and Vanderbilt is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Mississippi State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentMississippi State 7–4
Which team has more talent?
Mississippi State has the more talented roster (20th in the 247Sports talent composite; Vanderbilt is 42nd). Mississippi State also plays further above its talent: −2.9 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Vanderbilt's −5.5.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
MoneyMississippi State 3–0
Which roster costs more?
Vanderbilt's roster is valued at $24.9M, Mississippi State's at $21.2M. Dollar for dollar, Mississippi State plays better: −0.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −11.3 for Vanderbilt.
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
RECEIPTSMississippi State 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Vanderbilt is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−0.7). Mississippi State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.8). Mississippi State's record is running 1.1 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: questions people ask
Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Mississippi State, 74% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Mississippi State's best matchup is its run defense, 41st in yards per carry allowed, against Vanderbilt's run game at 119th.
Where can I watch Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State, and what time is it?
Sat, Nov 7, 4:15 PM ET at Davis Wade Stadium. It's on SEC Network.
What's the projected score of Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State?
SP+ projects Mississippi State 36–26. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State series history?
Mississippi State leads 15–7–2. Last meeting: Mississippi State won 45–6 in 2021.
Who are the players to watch in Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State?
Vanderbilt: Jared Curtis (1,503 passing yards), Sedrick Alexander (272 rushing yards) and Junior Sherrill (706 receiving yards). Mississippi State: Taylor (1,466 passing yards), Fluff Bothwell (513 rushing yards) and Anthony Evans III (653 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Vanderbilt at Mississippi State?
Vanderbilt's is Jared Curtis (1,503 passing yards this season); Mississippi State's is Taylor (1,466 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Vanderbilt at Mississippi State?
Mississippi State: Taylor (QB), out for season.
Keep going
- Vanderbilt: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Mississippi State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Texas at Missouri: the numbers' pick
- Arkansas at Auburn: the numbers' pick
- Texas A&M at South Carolina: the numbers' pick
- Alabama at LSU: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.