Ball State vs. Massachusetts Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayMassachusetts71% chance to win
- Massachusetts shouldn't give up big plays. Massachusetts is top-25 (23rd) in explosive plays allowed, and Ball State is bottom-20 (125th) in explosive play rate.
- Massachusetts' early-down defense has the edge on Ball State's early-down offense. Massachusetts is above average (37th) in SUPLEX allowed, and Ball State is bottom-20 (130th) in SUPLEX.
Ball State at Massachusetts
Projected score: Ball State 20, Massachusetts 31 (total 50).SP+: Massachusetts by 11.5, 79% chance to win.PRIME: Massachusetts by 8.2.
- Kickoff
- Wed, Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPNU
- Where
- Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
- Line
- Massachusetts −4.5, total 48.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Tied 2–2
- Last meeting
- Ball State 20–10 in 2015
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Massachusetts by 11.5 | 79% | 50 |
| PRIME | Massachusetts by 8.2 | 72% | |
| Elo | Massachusetts | 61% | |
| The line | Massachusetts −4.5 | 48.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Ball State or Massachusetts?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Ball State vs. Massachusetts?
All three ratings favor Massachusetts, by 8.2 to 11.5 points. Massachusetts' best matchup is its big-play defense, 23rd in explosive plays allowed, against Ball State's big-play offense at 125th. Ball State's way back in is its offensive line, 79th in line yards per carry, against Massachusetts' run-stopping front at 123rd.
Ball State with the ball
Massachusetts with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Ball State and Massachusetts?
Ball State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Massachusetts
- Ty Harding (WR), hasn't played since Week 6 (28 catches in 6 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Ball State and Massachusetts compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Ball State and Massachusetts are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Ball State's and Massachusetts' players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsMassachusetts 7–3
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Ball State and Massachusetts?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Massachusetts 9.0 points better (113th to 131st). PRIME also has Massachusetts ahead, by 5.7. Elo, which only sees results, also has Massachusetts ahead (128th to 130th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedBall State 9–7
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Ball State's offense ranks 77th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Massachusetts defense it faces ranks 78th in EPA per play allowed. Massachusetts' offense ranks 91st against Ball State's 130th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Massachusetts' offense against Ball State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Massachusetts' passing game: 75th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Ball State's 137th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Massachusetts' defense falls from 24th to 78th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAMassachusetts 7–1
Who's more efficient, Ball State or Massachusetts?
Ball State is better throwing (52nd in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). Massachusetts' pass defense ranks 21st, so the defense has the better of it. Massachusetts is about as good throwing (70th in EPA per pass) as running (58th).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringMassachusetts 2–0
Who scores more, Ball State or Massachusetts?
Ball State is outscored by 13.2 a game, and Massachusetts by 5.4. Ball State's offense ranks 108th in scoring, and the Massachusetts defense it faces ranks 42nd in points allowed. Massachusetts' offense ranks 83rd against Ball State's 131st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Massachusetts' offense against Ball State's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseMassachusetts 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Ball State has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 88th, against a defense ranked 57th in yards per carry allowed. Massachusetts' best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 69th in yards per carry, and Ball State's defense ranks 120th in yards per carry allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseMassachusetts 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Massachusetts' defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 23rd in explosive plays allowed, and Ball State's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (125th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontEven 6–6
Who wins up front?
They split these evenly, 6 each. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc allowed, where Massachusetts ranks 40th and Ball State 112th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversMassachusetts 6–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Massachusetts is +0.9 in turnover margin a game and Ball State is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Massachusetts. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Massachusetts' takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.6 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentBall State 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Ball State has the more talented roster (113th in the 247Sports talent composite; Massachusetts is 128th). But Massachusetts plays further above its talent: −2.5 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Ball State's −13.9.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSMassachusetts 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Ball State is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.4). Massachusetts is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.3).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Ball State at Massachusetts: questions people ask
Ball State vs. Massachusetts prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Massachusetts, 71% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Massachusetts' best matchup is its big-play defense, 23rd in explosive plays allowed, against Ball State's big-play offense at 125th.
Where can I watch Ball State vs. Massachusetts, and what time is it?
Wed, Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium. It's on ESPNU.
What's the projected score of Ball State vs. Massachusetts?
SP+ projects Massachusetts 31–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Ball State at Massachusetts?
DraftKings has Massachusetts −4.5, total 48.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Ball State vs. Massachusetts series history?
It's tied 2–2. Last meeting: Ball State won 20–10 in 2015.
Who are the players to watch in Ball State vs. Massachusetts?
Ball State: Keldric Luster (1,360 passing yards), TJ Horton (413 rushing yards) and Donovan Hamilton (310 receiving yards). Massachusetts: William Watson III (1,035 passing yards), Elijah Faulkner (378 rushing yards) and Ty Harding (333 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Ball State at Massachusetts?
Ball State's is Keldric Luster (1,360 passing yards this season); Massachusetts' is William Watson III (1,035 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Ball State at Massachusetts?
Massachusetts: Ty Harding (WR) hasn't played since Week 6.
Keep going
- Ball State: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Massachusetts: every stat, rank and the schedule
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- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.