Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayMiami (OH)61% chance to win
- Miami (OH) shouldn't give up big plays. Miami (OH) is top-25 (15th) in explosive plays allowed, and Buffalo is bottom-20 (132nd) in explosive play rate.
- Miami (OH)'s defense should win on early downs. Miami (OH) is top-25 (23rd) in SUPLEX allowed, and Buffalo is bottom-20 (133rd) in SUPLEX.
Buffalo at Miami (OH)
Projected score: Buffalo 17, Miami (OH) 27 (total 43).SP+: Miami (OH) by 10.3, 77% chance to win.PRIME: Miami (OH) by 5.1.
- Kickoff
- Tue, Nov 3, 8:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN
- Where
- Yager Stadium
- Line
- Miami (OH) −6.5, total 45.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Miami (OH) leads 17–9
- Last meeting
- Miami (OH) 37–20 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Miami (OH) by 10.3 | 77% | 43 |
| PRIME | Miami (OH) by 5.1 | 64% | |
| Elo | Buffalo | 57% | |
| The line | Miami (OH) −6.5 | 45.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Buffalo or Miami (OH)?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)?
SP+ and PRIME take Miami (OH), but Elo has Buffalo. Miami (OH)'s best matchup is its big-play defense, 15th in explosive plays allowed, against Buffalo's big-play offense at 132nd. Buffalo's way back in is its ball security, 28th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Miami (OH)'s takeaway defense at 104th.
Buffalo with the ball
Miami (OH) with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Buffalo and Miami (OH)?
Buffalo
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Miami (OH)
- David McComb (QB), hasn't played since Week 4 (103 pass attempts in 4 games before that)
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Buffalo and Miami (OH) compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Buffalo and Miami (OH) are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Buffalo's and Miami (OH)'s players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsMiami (OH) 8–2
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Buffalo and Miami (OH)?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Miami (OH) 7.8 points better (92nd to 118th). PRIME also has Miami (OH) ahead, by 2.6. Elo, which only sees results, has Buffalo ahead (95th to 113th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedMiami (OH) 13–3
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Buffalo's offense ranks 96th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Miami (OH) defense it faces ranks 91st in EPA per play allowed. Miami (OH)'s offense ranks 83rd against Buffalo's 95th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Miami (OH)'s offensive line in the run game: 61st in adjusted line yards per carry, against Buffalo's 109th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Buffalo's defense falls from 75th to 95th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAMiami (OH) 5–2
Who's more efficient, Buffalo or Miami (OH)?
Buffalo is better running (89th in EPA per rush) than throwing (119th). Miami (OH)'s run defense ranks 38th, so the defense has the better of it. Miami (OH) is better running (26th in EPA per rush) than throwing (64th). Buffalo's run defense ranks 58th, so that's an edge.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEven 1–1
Who scores more, Buffalo or Miami (OH)?
Buffalo is outscored by 2.8 a game, and Miami (OH) by 1.2. Buffalo's offense ranks 106th in scoring, and the Miami (OH) defense it faces ranks 85th in points allowed. Miami (OH)'s offense ranks 75th against Buffalo's 79th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseMiami (OH) 9–3
Which offense has the edge?
Buffalo has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 91st, against a defense ranked 77th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Miami (OH)'s best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 26th in explosive play rate, and Buffalo's defense ranks 99th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseMiami (OH) 8–3
Which defense has the edge?
Buffalo's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 73rd in sack rate, and Miami (OH)'s offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (122nd). Miami (OH)'s defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 15th in explosive plays allowed, and Buffalo's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (132nd). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontMiami (OH) 10–2
Who wins up front?
Miami (OH) has the better number in 10 of 12. The biggest gap is second-level yards per carry, where Miami (OH) ranks 32nd and Buffalo 135th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversMiami (OH) 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Miami (OH) is +0.1 in turnover margin a game and Buffalo is −0.4. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Miami (OH). Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentMiami (OH) 8–2
Which team has more talent?
Miami (OH) has the more talented roster (86th in the 247Sports talent composite; Buffalo is 120th). Miami (OH) also plays further above its talent: −1.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Buffalo's −4.9.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSEven 2–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Buffalo is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.7). Miami (OH) is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.6). Buffalo's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Buffalo at Miami (OH): questions people ask
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Miami (OH), 61% chance to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Buffalo. Miami (OH)'s best matchup is its big-play defense, 15th in explosive plays allowed, against Buffalo's big-play offense at 132nd.
Where can I watch Buffalo vs. Miami (OH), and what time is it?
Tue, Nov 3, 8:00 PM ET at Yager Stadium. It's on ESPN.
What's the projected score of Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)?
SP+ projects Miami (OH) 27–17. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Buffalo at Miami (OH)?
DraftKings has Miami (OH) −6.5, total 45.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) series history?
Miami (OH) leads 17–9. Last meeting: Miami (OH) won 37–20 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Buffalo vs. Miami (OH)?
Buffalo: Jason Wright (1,000 passing yards), Messiah Burch (843 rushing yards) and Chance Morrow (491 receiving yards). Miami (OH): David McComb (1,128 passing yards), Rodney Nelson (383 rushing yards) and Maleek Huggins (431 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Buffalo at Miami (OH)?
Buffalo's is Jason Wright (1,000 passing yards this season); Miami (OH)'s is David McComb (1,128 passing yards this season).
Who's out for Buffalo at Miami (OH)?
Miami (OH): David McComb (QB) hasn't played since Week 4.
Keep going
- Buffalo: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Miami (OH): every stat, rank and the schedule
- Ohio at Akron: the numbers' pick
- Toledo at Sacramento State: the numbers' pick
- Ball State at Massachusetts: the numbers' pick
- Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.