Toledo vs. Sacramento State Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayToledo96% chance to win
- Toledo should stop the run. Toledo is top-25 (16th) in EPA per rush allowed, and Sacramento State is bottom-20 (136th) in EPA per rush.
- Toledo should keep its quarterback clean. Toledo is top-10 (6th) in sacks allowed per dropback, and Sacramento State is bottom-20 (131st) in sack rate.
Toledo at Sacramento State
Projected score: Toledo 40, Sacramento State 11 (total 51).SP+: Toledo by 28.6, 98% chance to win.PRIME: Toledo by 23.5.
- Kickoff
- Wed, Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- CBSSN
- Where
- Hornet Stadium
- Series
- First meeting
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Toledo by 28.6 | 98% | 51 |
| PRIME | Toledo by 23.5 | 95% | |
| Elo | Toledo | 94% |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. No line posted yet.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Toledo or Sacramento State?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Toledo vs. Sacramento State?
All three ratings favor Toledo, by 23.5 to 28.6 points, and it isn't close. Toledo's best matchup is its run defense, 16th in EPA per rush allowed, against Sacramento State's run game at 136th. Sacramento State doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces.
Toledo with the ball
Sacramento State with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Toledo and Sacramento State?
Toledo
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Sacramento State
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Toledo and Sacramento State compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Toledo and Sacramento State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Toledo's and Sacramento State's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsToledo 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Toledo and Sacramento State?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Toledo 31.1 points better (64th to 138th). PRIME also has Toledo ahead, by 26.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Toledo ahead (58th to 133rd).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedToledo 16–0
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Toledo's offense ranks 44th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Sacramento State defense it faces ranks 124th in EPA per play allowed. Sacramento State's offense ranks 137th against Toledo's 44th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Toledo's offense against Sacramento State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Toledo's passing game: 25th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Sacramento State's 128th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Sacramento State's defense falls from 70th to 124th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAToledo 8–0
Who's more efficient, Toledo or Sacramento State?
Toledo is better throwing (22nd in EPA per pass) than running (87th). Sacramento State's pass defense ranks 97th, so that's a mismatch. Sacramento State is about as good throwing (126th in EPA per pass) as running (135th).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringToledo 2–0
Who scores more, Toledo or Sacramento State?
Toledo outscores FBS opponents by 12.0 a game, and Sacramento State is outscored by 13.3. Toledo's offense ranks 16th in scoring, and the Sacramento State defense it faces ranks 114th in points allowed. Sacramento State's offense ranks 133rd against Toledo's 79th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Toledo's offense against Sacramento State's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseToledo 12–0
Which offense has the edge?
Toledo's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 20th in explosive play rate, and Sacramento State's defense ranks 65th in explosive plays allowed. Sacramento State has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 83rd, against a defense ranked 30th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseToledo 9–2
Which defense has the edge?
Toledo's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 14th in explosive plays allowed, and Sacramento State's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (126th). That's a mismatch.
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontToledo 11–1
Who wins up front?
Toledo has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is big Uglies: defensive front, where Toledo ranks 18th and Sacramento State 124th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversToledo 5–0
Who wins the turnover battle?
Toledo is +0.1 in turnover margin a game and Sacramento State is −0.5. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Toledo. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Toledo's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.4 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentEven 3–3
Which team has more talent?
Sacramento State has the more talented roster (114th in the 247Sports talent composite; Toledo is 116th). But Toledo plays further above its talent: +8.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Sacramento State's −22.7.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSToledo 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Toledo is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.3). Sacramento State is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−3.9).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Toledo at Sacramento State: questions people ask
Toledo vs. Sacramento State prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Toledo, 96% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Toledo's best matchup is its run defense, 16th in EPA per rush allowed, against Sacramento State's run game at 136th.
Where can I watch Toledo vs. Sacramento State, and what time is it?
Wed, Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET at Hornet Stadium. It's on CBSSN.
What's the projected score of Toledo vs. Sacramento State?
SP+ projects Toledo 40–11. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the Toledo vs. Sacramento State series history?
This is the first meeting.
Who are the players to watch in Toledo vs. Sacramento State?
Toledo: John Alan Richter (2,272 passing yards), CJ Miller (609 rushing yards) and Adjatay Dabbs (608 receiving yards). Sacramento State: Jackson Sharman (1,387 passing yards), Isaiah Ene (410 rushing yards) and Matthew Coleman (492 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Toledo at Sacramento State?
Toledo's is John Alan Richter (2,272 passing yards this season); Sacramento State's is Jackson Sharman (1,387 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Toledo: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Sacramento State: every stat, rank and the schedule
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- Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan: the numbers' pick
- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.