Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan Prediction, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayCentral Michigan49% chance to win
- Central Michigan's pass defense has the edge on Eastern Michigan's passing game. Central Michigan is above average (44th) in EPA per pass allowed, and Eastern Michigan is bottom-20 (119th) in EPA per pass.
Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan
Projected score: Central Michigan 20, Eastern Michigan 23 (total 43), neutral field.SP+: Eastern Michigan by 2.1, 56% chance to win.PRIME: Central Michigan by 0.6, the other side.
- Kickoff
- Wed, Nov 4, 7:30 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- Ford Field (neutral site)
- Line
- Eastern Michigan −1.5, total 46.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Central Michigan leads 34–15–2
- Last meeting
- Central Michigan 24–13 in 2025
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Eastern Michigan by 2.1 | 56% | 43 |
| PRIME | Central Michigan by 0.6 | 52% | |
| Elo | Central Michigan | 51% | |
| The line | Eastern Michigan −1.5 | 46.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Central Michigan or Eastern Michigan?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan?
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Central Michigan ahead by a hair. Central Michigan's best matchup is its pass defense, 44th in EPA per pass allowed, against Eastern Michigan's passing game at 119th. Eastern Michigan's way back in is its offensive line, 67th in line yards per carry, against Central Michigan's run-stopping front at 138th.
Central Michigan with the ball
Eastern Michigan with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan?
Central Michigan
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Eastern Michigan
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Central Michigan's and Eastern Michigan's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsEven 5–5
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Eastern Michigan 2.1 points better (123rd to 127th). PRIME has Central Michigan by 0.6 instead. The two ratings split on Central Michigan's offense: 130th in SP+, 108th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Central Michigan ahead (119th to 120th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedCentral Michigan 10–6
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Central Michigan's offense ranks 94th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Eastern Michigan defense it faces ranks 115th in EPA per play allowed. Eastern Michigan's offense ranks 128th against Central Michigan's 101st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Eastern Michigan's offensive line in the run game: 67th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Central Michigan's 138th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Eastern Michigan's defense falls from 90th to 115th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAEven 4–4
Who's more efficient, Central Michigan or Eastern Michigan?
Central Michigan is better running (37th in EPA per rush) than throwing (136th). Eastern Michigan's run defense ranks 30th. Eastern Michigan is about as good throwing (101st in EPA per pass) as running (96th).
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringEastern Michigan 2–0
Who scores more, Central Michigan or Eastern Michigan?
Central Michigan is outscored by 8.0 a game, and Eastern Michigan is outscored by 4.4. Central Michigan's offense ranks 131st in scoring, and the Eastern Michigan defense it faces ranks 84th in points allowed. Eastern Michigan's offense ranks 114th against Central Michigan's 87th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseEastern Michigan 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Central Michigan has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 108th, against a defense ranked 128th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Eastern Michigan's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 96th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Central Michigan's defense ranks 135th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseCentral Michigan 7–4
Which defense has the edge?
Central Michigan's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 86th in explosive plays allowed, and Eastern Michigan's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (132nd).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontCentral Michigan 7–5
Who wins up front?
Central Michigan has the better number in 7 of 12. The biggest gap is power success allowed, where Eastern Michigan ranks 22nd and Central Michigan 134th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversEven 3–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Central Michigan is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Eastern Michigan is −0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Central Michigan. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Eastern Michigan's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.1 a game).
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentEven 4–4
Which team has more talent?
Eastern Michigan has the more talented roster (103rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Central Michigan is 125th). But Central Michigan plays further above its talent: −9.0 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Eastern Michigan's −9.3.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSEastern Michigan 3–2
Where did each team's wins come from?
Central Michigan is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.4). Eastern Michigan is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.9).
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan: questions people ask
Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Central Michigan, 49% chance to win. PRIME and Elo agree; SP+ has Eastern Michigan. Central Michigan's best matchup is its pass defense, 44th in EPA per pass allowed, against Eastern Michigan's passing game at 119th.
Where can I watch Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan, and what time is it?
Wed, Nov 4, 7:30 PM ET at Ford Field. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan?
SP+ projects Eastern Michigan 23–20. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan?
DraftKings has Eastern Michigan −1.5, total 46.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan series history?
Central Michigan leads 34–15–2. Last meeting: Central Michigan won 24–13 in 2025.
Who are the players to watch in Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan?
Central Michigan: Angel H Flores (475 passing yards), Jayden Clerveaux (271 rushing yards) and Langston Lewis (379 receiving yards). Eastern Michigan: Noah Kim (1,726 passing yards), Amareon Blue (405 rushing yards) and Joshua Long (393 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan?
Central Michigan's is Angel H Flores (475 passing yards this season); Eastern Michigan's is Noah Kim (1,726 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Central Michigan: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Eastern Michigan: every stat, rank and the schedule
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- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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The CFB Charts newsletter drops Thursdays and Mondays. On Thursdays, we make picks, highlight key matchups and dig into some data. On Mondays, we talk about what worked, what didn't and who we like to win it all.
vs.
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.