Ohio vs. Akron Prediction and Pick, Week 10 2026
The numbers sayOhio92% chance to win
- Ohio's offensive line should win up front. Ohio is top-25 (19th) in line yards per carry, and Akron is bottom-20 (133rd) in line yards allowed per carry.
- Ohio's offense has the edge on Akron's defense. Ohio is above average (32nd) in success rate, and Akron is bottom-20 (132nd) in success rate allowed.
Ohio at Akron
Projected score: Ohio 35, Akron 14 (total 49).SP+: Ohio by 21.1, 93% chance to win.PRIME: Ohio by 16.5.
- Kickoff
- Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM ET
- TV
- ESPN2
- Where
- InfoCision Stadium
- Line
- Ohio −12.5, total 49.5
- Line movement
- Hasn't moved since it opened.
- Series
- Ohio leads 23–10
- Last meeting
- Ohio 30–10 in 2024
The ratings and the line
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Ohio by 21.1 | 93% | 49 |
| PRIME | Ohio by 16.5 | 88% | |
| Elo | Ohio | 95% | |
| The line | Ohio −12.5 | 49.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Sat, Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET.
Compare the odds at every sportsbook and build a parlay on CFB Parlay Calculator.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
Who wins, Ohio or Akron?
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Which matchups decide Ohio vs. Akron?
All three ratings favor Ohio, by 16.5 to 21.1 points, and it isn't close. Ohio's best matchup is its offensive line, 19th in line yards per carry, against Akron's run-stopping front at 133rd. Akron's way back in is its offensive line, 30th in line yards per carry, against Ohio's run-stopping front at 84th.
Ohio with the ball
Akron with the ball
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Who's out for Ohio and Akron?
Ohio
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Akron
- Nobody listed. No regular has missed the last two games.
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
How Ohio and Akron compare, in charts
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Ohio and Akron are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
The players in charts
How Ohio's and Akron's players compare
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 31, 2026.
RatingsOhio 9–1
How do SP+, PRIME and Elo rate Ohio and Akron?
On a neutral field, SP+ has Ohio 23.6 points better (78th to 135th). PRIME also has Ohio ahead, by 19.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Ohio ahead (82nd to 138th).
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Opponent-adjustedOhio 15–1
Who's better once you adjust for the schedule?
Ohio's offense ranks 59th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Akron defense it faces ranks 138th in EPA per play allowed. Akron's offense ranks 93rd against Ohio's 90th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Ohio's offense against Akron's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Ohio's offensive line in the run game: 19th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Akron's 133rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Ohio's offense falls from 30th to 59th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
EPAOhio 8–0
Who's more efficient, Ohio or Akron?
Ohio is better running (26th in EPA per rush) than throwing (52nd). Akron's run defense ranks 112th, so that's a mismatch. Akron is better running (83rd in EPA per rush) than throwing (110th). Ohio's run defense ranks 78th. On third down, Ohio has the edge: its offense ranks 50th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 118th.
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
ScoringOhio 2–0
Who scores more, Ohio or Akron?
Ohio outscores FBS opponents by 7.7 a game, and Akron is outscored by 13.8. Ohio's offense ranks 59th in scoring, and the Akron defense it faces ranks 128th in points allowed. Akron's offense ranks 127th against Ohio's 50th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Ohio's offense against Akron's defense.
Per game, FBS opponents only.
OffenseOhio 10–2
Which offense has the edge?
Ohio's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 32nd in success rate, and Akron's defense ranks 132nd in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch. Akron has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 65th, against a defense ranked 68th in explosive plays allowed.
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
DefenseOhio 11–0
Which defense has the edge?
Ohio's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 56th in success rate allowed, and Akron's offense is bottom-40 in success rate (101st).
What opponents managed against them.
Up frontOhio 11–1
Who wins up front?
Ohio has the better number in 11 of 12. The biggest gap is front-seven havoc, where Ohio ranks 27th and Akron 130th.
The lines. Big Uglies is our rating for each offensive line and each defensive front: adjusted line yards (30%), stuff rate (20%), power success (15%), sack rate (20%) and front-seven havoc (15%), against every FBS team. 50 is average, and every 10 points is a standard deviation. Line stats from CollegeFootballData.com, garbage time out.
TurnoversOhio 4–3
Who wins the turnover battle?
Ohio is −0.5 in turnover margin a game and Akron is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Ohio. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
Per game, from play-by-play.
TalentAkron 6–4
Which team has more talent?
Akron has the more talented roster (121st in the 247Sports talent composite; Ohio is 129th). But Ohio plays further above its talent: +7.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Akron's −17.8.
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
RECEIPTSOhio 4–1
Where did each team's wins come from?
Ohio is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+2.2). Akron is −3.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.7). Akron's record is 0.9 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
Where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
FAQ
Ohio at Akron: questions people ask
Ohio vs. Akron prediction: who will win?
The numbers pick Ohio, 92% chance to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Ohio's best matchup is its offensive line, 19th in line yards per carry, against Akron's run-stopping front at 133rd.
Where can I watch Ohio vs. Akron, and what time is it?
Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM ET at InfoCision Stadium. It's on ESPN2.
What's the projected score of Ohio vs. Akron?
SP+ projects Ohio 35–14. That's from this season's SP+ offense, defense and special teams ratings, with home field worth 2.5 points.
What's the line for Ohio at Akron?
DraftKings has Ohio −12.5, total 49.5. The numbers pick winners, not bets.
What's the Ohio vs. Akron series history?
Ohio leads 23–10. Last meeting: Ohio won 30–10 in 2024.
Who are the players to watch in Ohio vs. Akron?
Ohio: Nick Poulos (781 passing yards), Victor Rosa (358 rushing yards) and Riley Neer (496 receiving yards). Akron: Brayden Roggow (1,349 passing yards), Jordan Gant (585 rushing yards) and Kyan Mason (344 receiving yards). Season totals through Oct 31, 2026.
Who are the quarterbacks in Ohio at Akron?
Ohio's is Nick Poulos (781 passing yards this season); Akron's is Brayden Roggow (1,349 passing yards this season).
Keep going
- Ohio: every stat, rank and the schedule
- Akron: every stat, rank and the schedule
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- Every Week 10 pick
- Compare any two teams in the Head-to-Head Matchup Builder
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at
Kentucky at 24% chance to win
Delaware at Kennesaw StateNumbers through the games of Oct 31, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Projected vs. what happened
Projected score: SP+, from before kickoff. "Expected" in the game numbers is the average of the offense's numbers and the defense's numbers allowed, in their games before this week. An edge held when the game went the way it pointed.
The pregame preview
What we published before kickoff: the pick, the matchups and every stat as it stood going in.
How we picked it
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.